Every week in Three Breakout Players we highlight a few inexpensive players on the verge of earth-shattering fantasy football breakouts. Or, less ambitiously, we discuss players set up to exceed production expectations at low ownership. Heading into Week 3, we highlight one player at each skill position. All three were impressive college prospects who now are on the verge of being fully unlocked at the NFL level.
Derrick Henry, Titans RB: $5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Waiting for his moment is nothing new to Derrick Henry after sitting behind inferior backs on Alabama’s running back depth chart. Once given an opportunity, he won the Heisman Trophy after posting 2,219 rushing yards (No. 5 all-time in Division I football) and 28 touchdowns. Henry’s exceptional production is illustrated by his 43.5 percent (91st percentile) College Dominator Rating on PlayerProfiler.com.
Although he was the signature size-speed athlete of the 2015 draft with his a 116.3 (97th percentile) Speed Score, Henry slipped into the second round after a deluge of scouting reports derided him as “stiff” and “upright.” These negative sentiments continue to resonate in football circles today.
Zooming out with a purely analytical approach provides an alternative viewpoint. Henry offers three of the four key quantitative pillars of an elite running back profile:
- Size – Check!
- Athleticism – Check!
- College Dominance – Check!
- Passing Game Usage – Nope!
While Henry lacks the fluidity in space of smaller NFL satellite backs, the rest of his profile is impressive enough to compensate. Henry is such a unique talent that he does not have a best comparable player in the PlayerProfiler database, which is why he’s compared to Zangief from Street Fighter.
DeMarco Murray is hobbled with a hamstring injury and is uncertain for Week 3. If he misses this game, then Henry will be a must-play running back in all formats. The Titans are primarily a run-first team, ranking No. 4 in rushing plays in 2016 and No. 10 in run plays called so far this season. The Titans are 3.0-point home favorites against the Seahawks, which means that Henry could benefit from a run-heavy game script, and Tennessee’s offensive line leads the NFL in yards blocked and can overwhelm even the nastiest defensive front. Because of the difficult matchup, Henry could have somewhat muted ownership in guaranteed prize pools if he starts.
Devin Funchess, Panthers WR: $4,200 DraftKings, $4800 FanDuel
Opportunity knocks for Devin Funchess, who looks to fill the void in the Panthers passing offense left by tight end Greg Olsen, who was placed on Injured Reserve with a fractured foot. Funchess saw seven targets in Week 2, converting four of them for 68 yards while playing 82.6 percent of the offensive snaps. A convert who played tight end for most of college, Funchess is still honing his craft and is young for a third-year player at 23.
While at the University of Michigan, catching ‘passes’ from ‘quarterbacks’ such as Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner, Funchess averaged 15.3 yards per reception in his first two seasons as a tight end. Transitioning to wide receiver, Funchess achieved a 41.4 percent (82nd percentile) College Dominator Rating his junior season. Funchess offers excellent size-adjusted athleticism to go along with his college dominance, evidenced by his 107.9 (87th percentile) Speed Score and 10.18 (80th percentile) Catch Radius.
In Week 3, Funchess gets the gift that keeps on giving in the Saints pass defense. Through two games New Orleans has allowed 793 yards and six touchdowns through the air. Although the Panthers did not find the end zone last week at home against Buffalo, they should do better this week as 5.5-point home favorites implied for 26.0 points. Funchess has a top-five rating among all wide receivers in the Bales Model.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jets TE: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is like a fighter jet waiting on the runway for takeoff. An early second-round pick in 2014 who dominated at an early age at the University of Washington, Seferian-Jenkins exhibited a 116.9 (76th percentile) SPARQ-x Score at 6’6″ and 260 pounds in pre-draft workouts. Checking many of the important boxes on the tight end prospect profile, ASJ was one of the most exciting young tight ends in recent memory.
ASJ flashed in limited action in his first two years in the league (42/559/6 in 16 games), although he had difficulty staying healthy and in shape because of his alcohol issues. He was released by the Buccaneers in 2016 following a DUI arrest, which resulted in a two-game suspension. Now with the Jets and his suspension served, ASJ has a massive opportunity to produce on a team in need of playmakers.
A 6.0-point home underdog this week, the Jets are likely to have a negative game script against the Dolphins, who last week surrendered 10 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown to Chargers tight ends. Last year, the Dolphins allowed 10 touchdowns to the position — tied for the third-highest mark in the league. ASJ is a GPP-only option, as there are reports that he’s not in game shape after his suspension, but if he’s active this week he’ll have touchdown upside at less than 1.0 percent projected ownership.
Good luck this week, and be sure to use our Tools to research potential breakout players yourself.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
