Welcome to The Forward Pass. This piece offers a few usage notes from Week 13 and makes forward-looking statements about Week 14 and beyond.
1. Kamara Continues to Crush
Nine months ago Saints running back Alvin Kamara was hated by #DraftTwitter. Time makes fools of us all: Kamara is the runaway frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. After another ‘I’m better than everyone else in the world’ outing (126 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries and five receptions), Kamara has 1,220 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns on just 86 carries and 74 receptions. He’s just the second rookie ever to have at least 600 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving through 12 games and the first since Hall-of-Famer Charley Taylor did it in 1964. He’s the first running back in the NFL to have his level of production on so few touches. On top of that, he’s the first DraftKings player ever to have a 100 percent Consistency Rating through the first 13 weeks. At some point Kamara will regress, but right now we’re watching history.
On Thursday Night Football the Falcons will host the Saints in a game with major implications for the playoffs and NFC South. The 54.5-point game total currently leads the slate by a 7.0-point margin. Despite winning nine of their past 10 games, the Saints have opened as +1.5 underdogs.
2. He’s Back in a Flash
In Week 13, Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon played his first game in almost three years, facing a Chargers team with stud pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and three starting corners in Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King with top-15 Pro Football Focus grades at the position. Even with the tough matchup, Gordon was targeted 11 times for a juicy 210 air yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr. this year has more receiving yards in a game against the Chargers than Gordon’s 85. Only three NFL players in history have had at least 100 yards receiving per game at the age of 22: Gordon (117.6), OBJ (108.8), and Billy Howton (102.6). Gordon is now 26. OBJ’s age-26 season is next year, but when Howton was 26 he had an All-Pro campaign, leading the league with 1,188 yards and 12 touchdowns receiving in 12 games. I don’t want to overreact to one game — but Flash is back.
This week the Browns host the Packers, who have a rotating crew of cornerbacks (Damarious Randall, Davon House, Kevin King, and Josh Hawkins) who all have PFF coverage grades below 50.0: #GameOn.
3. Who Is Matt Nagy?
As great as Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is as a quarterback guru and offensive organizer, he’s a questionable play caller and in-game strategist. After opening the season with a five-game win streak in which they averaged 32.8 points per game (PPG), the Chiefs underwhelmed in Weeks 6-12 with a 1-5 record and 18 PPG. Reportedly not desirous to bench quarterback Alex Smith for rookie Patrick Mahomes, Reid decided to shakeup the offense by replacing himself.
Andy Reid hands over offensive play-calling duties to OC Matt Nagy Sunday. https://t.co/zci3iqWkAc
— FantasyLabs NFL (@FantasyLabsNFL) December 3, 2017
It’s hard to know how much impact Nagy had on the outcome of this game — the last time he was the primary person in charge of play calling was 2003, when he was the Junior Varsity Offensive Head Coach of Cedar Crest High School in Lebanon, Pennsylvania — but the Chiefs in Week 13 scored 31 points and were aggressive with the ball, accumulating 474 total yards of offense on 10.3 yards per play with no turnovers. At the same time, they abandoned the run, giving Kareem Hunt only nine carries, and they lost 31-38 in part because they possessed the ball for only 17:11. Both wide receiver Tyreek Hill (6/185/2) and tight end Travis Kelce (4/94/2) had monster games. While the Chiefs offense might be unpredictable under Nagy, the Chiefs could continue to use a pass-heavy attack.
In Week 14 the Chiefs host the Raiders, who are bottom-three against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Smith and the passing game could go off once again.
4. Derrick Henry Does it Again
For the second time in two months, Titans running back Derrick Henry in Week 13 rushed for a clock-killing touchdown of more than 70 yards with less than a minute left in regulation, much to the chagrin of many bettors. Even more annoying, though, is that the carry was just Henry’s 11th of the game. Starter DeMarco Murray (hamstring, shoulder, illness) has been dealing with various injury issues since the preseason, and he’s having one of the most inefficient seasons of his career with his 3.7 yards per carry, but the Titans seem unwilling to make Henry the lead back despite his superior production: Murray has 179 opportunities this year to Henry’s 137. With a 6-1 record over their past seven games — albeit against a schedule softer than luxury toilet paper — the Titans are unlikely to make drastic distributive adjustments. Unreliable for fantasy players and murderous to sports bettors, Henry might be the most talented player no one cares about.
This week the Titans travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals, who are top-five in rush defense DVOA. As the stilted Anakin Skywalker put it, “Jedi business: Go back to your drinks.”
5. Greg the Leg is Still Leg-it
I try not to write about kickers (cough, cough), but I keep coming back to the great season we’re witnessing ignoring from Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein. He entered Week 13 leading the league with 32 field goals and 33 extra points, and then on Sunday he led all kickers with 17 FanDuel points on four field goals (one from 56 yards) and two extra points. With four games left in the regular season, Zuerlein has a smoking +6.07 Plus/Minus. In the history of our database, no kicker to appear in more than four games has ever finished a season with higher than a +2.99: Zuerlein is basically breaking the kicker salary scale. With the way the Rams play on both sides of the ball, Zuerlein seems likely to get ample opportunities in the last quarter of the season. No one likes to spend money for kickers, but this year the only thing worse than paying up for Zuerlein has been not paying up for him.
By the way, the last time I wrote that sentence Legatron scored one fantasy point. You’re welcome.
Research the Week 14 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
