One of the highlights of any NFL season is the smorgasbord we get to enjoy on Thanksgiving! Literally, I hope that means people are surrounded by loved ones with a plentiful meal to enjoy. Figuratively, we got an entire day of football action to look forward to.
The action kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the division-leading Detroit Lions. Subsequently, two NFC East rivals battle it out as the Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Commanders. The night concludes with a grudge match between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, with the NFC West lead on the line.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Thanksgiving Thursday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jordan Love Lower 232.5 Passing Yards
The Packers’ Jordan Love era is off to a tumultuous start. The third-year pro has started all 10 games for Green Bay this year, leading them to a 4-6 record against one of the easiest schedules in the league. Although he’s enjoyed success over his past few games, he’s in for a reckoning against the Lions.
Love’s metrics are underwhelming, at best. The Utah State product is completing just 59.7% of his passes this year, including 16 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Recency bias may direct you toward his 322-yard performance last time out or 289-yard effort before that but don’t fall for that trap. Those games came against two bottom-10 passing defenses, and Love barely managed to complete 60.0% of his passes over that stretch.
He and the Packers will face a much more sincere challenge from the Lions. Detroit sits in the top half of the league, allowing just 223.5 passing yards per game. Further, they’ve dialed up the intensity lately, holding their last three opponents to just 183.7.
Love is a regression candidate. Before these two games, the Packers QB was averaging 215.0 yards per game. That number fell to 189.5 in four road contests. That’s more indicative of what to expect from Love in Thursday’s matinee.
Josh Reynolds Higher 1.5 Receptions
There is no shortage of weapons in the Lions offense. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs form one of the best running back tandems in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a perennial Pro Bowler. Sam LaPorta is excelling in his rookie campaign. But everybody always seems to lose sight of Josh Reynolds.
The Lions wide receiver has been an all-or-nothing type performer this season. At times, we’ve seen him lead the Lions’ aerial assault. Then, other times, he’s been a non-factor. After a string of below-average performances, we’re betting Reynolds shows up on Thanksgiving.
Over his last four outings, Reynolds has totaled a minuscule six receptions, failing to exceed two catches in any contest. Still, he has the target share to warrant improved production. The 28-year-old has a 10.2% target share, putting him fourth on the team and second among wide receivers, exceeding three targets in seven of 10 games. That makes Reynolds an ideal buy-low candidate as he ramps up production following his recent downturn.
We’re betting Jared Goff will be in the festive mood, distributing the ball to all his top pass-catchers. Reynolds is included in that and should have the workload to surpass his modest receptions line.
Terry McLaurin Lower 5.0 Receptions
The quarterback change in the Washington Commanders offense is negatively impacting Terry McLaurin’s production this year. With Carson Wentz and Taylor Heineke leading the team in 2022, McLaurin was able to maintain his 1,000-yard streak going, making his first Pro Bowl. Now with Sam Howell operating the offense, we’ve seen a dip in McLaurin’s efficiency.
So far this season, McLaurin has the worst yards per reception of his career and the fewest yards per game. Moreover, his catch rate is falling apart over his recent sample, suggesting that there are a myriad of factors working against him. That’s without even considering the Cowboys’ second-ranked passing defense.
McLaurin hasn’t surpassed five catches in any of his last five games, mustering a benchable 54.3% catch rate. That’s causing Howell to look elsewhere in his progressions, with three different pass-catchers out-pacing McLaurin in target share over the last three weeks.
Nobody is gaining any traction in the passing game against the Cowboys. Dallas’ defense allows the second-fewest yards per game (157.1), with the second-fewest completions (16.7) and fourth-best completion percentage (59.4%). It appears that McLaurin’s diminished production will stretch into Week 13.
Brock Purdy Higher 9.5 Rushing Yards
The 49ers’ hot-and-cold season continued in Week 11. San Francisco rattled off a convincing 27-14 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, making it consecutive wins for the first time since their five-game winning streak came to an end in Week 5. A resurgent Brock Purdy has facilitated those good outcomes and should be at his best under the bright lights on Thursday night.
Purdy’s been great lately, but he also has a big advantage in taking on an overmatched Seahawks defense. Seattle ranks in the bottom ten in total defense, allowing 345.6 yards per game. That number has taken a hit over the past few weeks, with their last three opponents combining for an average of 379.3, the fifth-worst in the NFL.
Worse, a substantial portion of those yards are coming on the ground. Using the same three-game sample, the Seahawks are getting trampled to the tune of 149.3 rushing yards per game. Included in that stretch is a 17-yard effort from Commanders quarterback Sam Howell and a 60-yard performance from Lamar Jackson. Hell, when Matthew Stafford tries running the ball on multiple occasions against you, you know you have some real problems.
Purdy will have no problem getting things done via the pass, but look for him to exploit the Seahawks defense with his legs, too. The Niners pivot hasn’t been shy about taking off, rushing for 121 yards on 30 carries. With room to move, we expect Purdy to eclipse 9.5 rushing yards against Seattle.
Zach Charbonnet Higher 52.5 Rushing Yards
An oblique injury to Kenneth Walker has forced Zach Charbonnet up the Seahawks’ depth chart. Even in limited action, Charbonnet has been no slouch on offense. We’re excited to see what he can deliver in a full game as a starter.
Charbonnet has yet to start a game for Seattle but has been a power rusher off the bench. The rookie running back out of UCLA is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, toting the ball 53 times for 261 yards. Arguably, Charbonnet’s most impressive characteristic is his ability to get yards in big chunks. Already, Charbonnet has runs of ten or more yards in five of his previous seven games, a span that includes four 40-yard rushing games off the bench.
The Seahawks get to unleash Charbonnet against the Niners, and everyone should be tuned in to see what he does. Granted, San Francisco has a top rushing defense, but we expect Charbonnet is geared up for his first start, and Pete Carroll has a few runs mapped out to help him excel. We’re betting he goes higher than 52.5 rushing yards on Thursday night.
