NFL Week 4 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Josh Allen ($8,200) and Jalen Hurts ($8,000) are the standout options at the top this week, with similar projections and price points. They have two different expected game flows, with Allen playing in a possible shootout with the Dolphins, while Hurts and the Eagles are big favorites.
We saw last week how quarterbacks can post big scores even in non-competitive games, with Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400) breaking 30 points on DraftKings despite the game getting out of hand. Still, a Tua lineup didn’t win the Millionaire Maker.
That pushes me towards Allen a bit, as he’s a slight favorite in the game with the best Vegas total on the slate. He’s been slightly disappointing this season — even excluding Week 1 — which could keep ownership to a reasonable level. The likely game flow is outstanding, though, and home favorites traditionally do well in these spots:
Hurts has just as high of a ceiling but a wider range of outcomes than Allen. His game could turn into a blowout with the Eagles favored by 8.5, and then it would come down to how the early scoring happened. It could certainly come through Hurts, but the Eagles have also fed a ton of carries to their running backs.
Hurts is also much harder to stack than Josh Allen, with two high-priced receivers that are unlikely to hit in the same game, as well as a target hog at tight end. Allen stacks flow fairly easily through Stefon Diggs ($8,100), whose target share is more than double that of any other Bills pass-catcher.
For smaller field tournaments, I like building through Hurts and up to two of his pass-catchers. For larger field stuff, I prefer single stacks, so Allen to Diggs is an obvious choice (with some easy bringbacks on the Dolphins’ side.)
That’s how I’m playing it this week.
Value
Depending on how the projection sit, there are a few quarterbacks in the high-$5,000 range that stand out. Russell Wilson ($5,800) might be my favorite. His game has the highest total of any of the quarterbacks at the top of our Pts/Sal projections, and it’s the best matchup.
His Broncos are looking to get the taste of their blowout loss out of their mouth with a win over the Bears, who ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. The only team worse is the Broncos, which gives this game some sneaky shootout potential. Denver’s defense is bad enough that Chicago could push the scoring here, forcing Russ to cook.
Denver’s struggles this year aren’t really Wilson’s fault, as the offense is averaging a respectable 23 points per game. He has a talented group of pass catchers, and they should look to attack through the air here. He doesn’t provide much with his legs anymore, but he’s a solid floor/median play at a cheap price in a game that has the potential to be the week’s highest scoring.
Quick Hits
Brock Purdy ($5,900) is always an interesting GPP option. The 49ers offense is chock full of pass-catchers who can take three-yard dump-offs to the house, allowing him to post solid fantasy scores through no fault of his own. The likeliest outcome is that most of the 49ers’ 29 implied points come through Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), but if those are passes instead of runs, Purdy will easily outperform his salary.
I mentioned my interest in the Broncos-Bears game above, which naturally has me looking to Justin Fields ($6,600) as well. He’s more likely to score with his legs than his arm, so you can build interesting rosters around Fields and Broncos pass catchers. I’m always going to be interested in both quarterbacks when the league’s two worst passing defenses are in the same game.
I’d also be remiss to not mention Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), who’s now the front-runner for NFL MVP after three outstanding weeks. It feels a bit chasey to target him the week after his team goes for 70, but with his weapons and this game flow, he could easily top the slate again.
If the Broncos gave Miami any resistance last week, he could’ve ended up with an even bigger score, so he needs to be considered here.
I’d avoid him at high ownership due to the matchup, but he’s currently projecting in the low single-digits
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Even if Austin Ekeler ($8,500) returns to action this week, he’ll likely be at least somewhat limited. That leaves the aforementioned McCaffrey alone atop the running back projections, with a substantial gap between him and anyone else.
He’s been given a surprising amount of volume early in this season, with 60 carries and 13 targets through three games. While he’s not getting as many schemed passing targets as he did in Carolina, the strength of the 49ers offense makes up for it with expanded scoring opportunities.
They’re taking on a surprisingly not-awful Cardinals team that has done enough to keep games interesting — and ruin survivor pools — this season. If Arizona is at all competitive, we could see a heavy dose of CMC. If this one isn’t competitive, it’s probably because McCaffrey did some early scoring.
Another factor worth mentioning is that San Francisco played on Thursday in Week 3, so they should be well-rested. That likely means a slightly longer leash for their star running back if they need him. McCaffrey is a rock-solid cash game play with some tournament appeal — though I’d include at least one Cardinals piece on the other side if playing him in larger tournaments.
Value
Kyren Williams ($6,000) didn’t put up big fantasy numbers last week. He did play on 100% of the Rams snaps, though, an extremely rare feat in today’s game. That would make him nearly an auto-play at a $9,000 salary, and he’s a smash at $6,000.
Especially in this game, which is roughly a pick ’em depending on the sportsbook. He’s fairly likely to play 90% or more of the Rams snaps again while handling all of their running back attempts. He has a strong pass game role as well, with 17 targets in the past two weeks following the departure of Cam Akers.
The Rams running game is, unfortunately, horribly inefficient, so he’ll need to keep up those passing numbers and/or add multiple touchdowns for a true ceiling game. The former is more likely, so I prefer to play Williams with Colts pieces if targeting him in tournaments — but he’s a free square in Week 4 cash games.
Quick Hits
The demise of Alexander Mattison ($5,800) was declared prematurely. After the Vikings RB1 saw 19 carried combined in the first two weeks, he handled 20 — plus seven targets — in Week 3. Minnesota seems fairly committed to him despite the trade for Akers, even if the wheels are falling off the team a bit.
He should have a positive game script against the Panthers, who’ve allowed the third-most running back points in the league this season. It’s pretty clear that Mattison has the Dalvin Cook role in this offense, though without the explosive ability that made Cook such a great DFS option.
Tony Pollard ($7,800) is always in play as an alternative to McCaffrey. He’s averaged 24 carries over the past two weeks, with a solid 14% target share (8th in the league among running backs) on the season. He’s yet to pop off for a massive game this season, but the workload is there, and he has the explosiveness to get it done.
Another player who’s yet to have an eruption is Derrick Henry ($7,000). He’s faced two top-12 rushing defenses (and scored a respectable 18.40 points in the third game) this season. This week he draws a Bengals team that ranks 28th against the run. T
he injury to Joe Burrow ($6,500) should keep the game flow reasonable, and the Titans’ best chances are through the big dog.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
With the Chargers explosive offense and porous defense, we’ve been targeting their passing attack all season. Now, that passing attack is likely to get a lot more concentrated. No. 2 wideout Mike Williams is done for the year with a torn ACL, leaving Keenan Allen ($7,900) as the unquestioned top dog.
Especially in PPR formats, targets and volume are kind for wide receivers. Through three weeks, Allen has been third in the NFL in targets, including a ridiculous 20 in Week 3. With Williams drawing roughly nine targets per game coming in, the sky is the limit for Allen on volume.
There are, however, reasonable questions about his efficiency moving forward. Without Williams stretching the field, defenses will be able to key in on Allen more than they have so far this year. The potential return of Ekeler would help that to an extent, but the real hope is that one or both of Josh Palmer ($4,000) or Quentin Johnston ($3,700) step up to draw some attention.
With all that said, $7,900 is far too cheap for Allen with his expected role, regardless of matchup. His price will be on the rise moving forward, so be sure to roster him now before it’s too late. He’s locked in for cash games and should be a large part of your GPP portfolio.
Value
The secondary Chargers receivers (Palmer and Johnston) are both popping in our models. It’s hard to see the Chargers passing offense as a whole failing, so there’s likely to be a solid amount of scoring between the two of them. Projecting how it’s distributed is the hard part.
The likeliest outcome is one of them exceeding their projections with the other falling short, though they could split time and both finish roughly where we have them. Johnston projects as more of a direct replacement for Williams as a big-bodies contested-catch specialist. Williams was seeing more easily catchable passes this year than in the past, so it’s certainly plausible the Chargers use Johnston the same way.
Palmer had a role in this offense already as a downfield stretcher. His average depth of target is the highest on the team, which gives him a wider range of outcomes. They’re likely to continue to use him that way, which boosts his ceiling but still gives him a shaky floor.
I actually prefer the rookie Johnston here for all contest types. He seems to be getting less traction around the industry, so his ownership will be lower. More importantly, he fits how teams traditionally use backups at wide receiver. Fellow Los Angeles-based team, the Rams are a perfect example. With Cooper Kupp on IR, they’ve slid Puka Nacua ($6,700) in as a direct replacement for Kupp rather than throwing more to the previously starting receivers.
I’m anticipating a similar trend with Johnston, who won’t be this cheap or this contrarian for long if I’m right.
Quick Hits
If building around any of the Chargers mentioned above, consider pairing them with Davante Adams ($8,000) in tournaments. He matched Keenan Allen’s 20 targets last week and leads the NFL in target share through three games. If this one turns into the type of shootout we need it to for Chargers pass catchers, Adams likely comes along for the ride.
I understand how much the injury to Joe Burrow is impacting the Bengals’ downfield passing attack, but I’m willing to take a chance on Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800). He’s reasonably priced at $7,800 and is coming off a week where he nearly scored 30 without catching a touchdown. The matchup is near ideal with a Titans pass funnel defense that has allowed the fifth most passing yards despite mostly positive game scripts for their opponents.
Justin Jefferson ($9,600) and Tyreek Hill ($9,200) are always worth considering, though both are too expensive for their matchup. I prefer Hill due to the correlation we can build around a shootout in his game. Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) is also likely to return for Miami. He had a positive Plus/Minus in both games against Buiffalo last year, while Hill fell short of salary-based expectations. That’s a sign that Buffalo is going to game plan to limit Hill, potentially creating opportunities for Waddle.
On the value side, Adam Thielen ($4,500) saw a huge boost with Andy Dalton under center last week. It looks like Bryce Young ($5,200) will be back in for the Panthers, but Thielen could still be a major part of the game plan. He’s a logical stacking option with his former teammate Justin Jefferson with a potential revenge game narrative.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
With Deebo Samuel ($6,900) on the negative side of questionable for Week 4, George Kittle ($5,100) is by far the best raw tight end play on the slate. Kittle is an inconsistent but efficient producer whose excellent blocking ability and crowded target competition sometimes see him left out of the game plan.
However, he’s been used much more with Samuel off the field. In four games last season where Kittle played and Samuel didn’t, he scored at least 12.30 DraftKings points in each contest while averaging a hair over 20. Even if he falls toward the lower end of those outcomes, he’s still a strong play this week.
Primarily due to how thin the position is. The Ravens and Mark Andrews ($5,400) are taking on a historically good Browns defense, and the future subject of Taylor Swift’s next great breakup song Travis Kelce isn’t on the main slate. That leaves Kittle more or less alone at the top. He’s worth finding the salary for in cash games and has some GPP appeal as well.
Value
There are a few dusty catch-and-fall type players popping from a Pts/Sal standpoint. The best one of those from an “unlikely to put up a goose egg” standpoint is probably Zach Ertz ($3,200), who somehow leads all tight ends in target share on the season.
Ertz was a victim of game flow last week, seeing just two targets as the Cardinals upset the Cowboys. However, with his target share, he’ll be more active whenever the Cardinals fall behind. With Arizona lined as two-touchdown underdogs, there should be plenty of passing volume to go around.
His ceiling is extremely limited, though. I’m only interested in Ertz as a cash game salary saver, as he’s extremely unlikely to win you any tournaments. After all, no other NFL player (that I know of) has been so unathletic as to spawn a Twitter account mocking their inability to break tackles:
Quick Hits
The only tight end likely to challenge Kittle for the top score this week is T.J. Hockenson ($6,500), whose elevated price tag makes him a difficult click. He trails only Ertz and his replacement in Detroit, Sam LaPorta, in target share among tight ends on the season. While I like Hockenson this week, it’s very difficult to justify the extra $1,400 in salary. He is likely to come in at lower ownership, though, so he’s a pay-up-to-be-contrarian choice.
Dallas Goedert ($4,400) is an interesting option in the mid-range of tight end. Most lineups this week will be built around paying up for Kittle and possibly Hockenson or punting on a cheaper option. Goedert exists in a middle ground, and he’s seen seven targets in each of the last two games. Jalen Hurts taking all of the red zone touchdowns hurts his ceiling, but he’ll catch a few touchdowns this year. If it happens at this price point, that could be enough to make him the best tight end play.
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,100) is basically a poor man’s Kyle Pitts. He’s a freakish athlete who looks good running routes but doesn’t have a quarterback capable of getting him the ball. I don’t expect that latter part to change this week, but he could see a few more looks with Treylon Burks out. Maybe Ryan Tannehill ($5,000) will even put one of those looks on target. Still, it’s easy to get excited about his speed score:
GPP Roster Construction
I really like this week for GPPS, as there are a ton of different ways to approach the slate. A ton of lineups are going to be built around the Dolphins-Bills game — the only game with a total over 50 — but I don’t think it’s the obvious smash we’ve seen the past few weeks.
Buffalo has a strong enough defense to slow things down a bit, and Josh Allen has been far less aggressive this season with both his arm and his legs. It’s not a game that’s likely to totally disappoint, but with the salaries on the top DFS options being so high, we need massive scores to produce GPP winners.
There’s a deep second tier of games that are intriguing but project to be lopsided. The offenses on the right side of those games are Philadelphia, San Francisco, and the Chargers. The latter two teams have plenty of extra targets to go around without Mike Williams and Deebo Samuel active.
I like building lineups around one of the cheap Chargers wide receivers, with Johnston being my preference. You could pair one with Keenan Allen in Justin Herbert stacks or play them alone if stacking other spots. On the 49ers side, I’ll have one of Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, or Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200) in nearly all of my lineups if Deebo misses. As with the Chargers, if rostering two of those players, I’d pair them with Purdy.
For smaller field contests, a Purdy/McCaffrey stack without any receivers is also a strong choice. San Francisco has the slate’s highest team total, and virtually all of their touchdowns will involve one or both of those players. It’s tough to see Purdy winning any big GPPs without plenty of Aiyuk or Kittle, but in smaller tournaments, this pairing covers a lot of bases.
I’ll be trying to get as much Kittle as possible in tournaments while swapping down to Goedert, Okonkwo, or Ertz when needed. Most of the viable tight ends in the low $3,000 range have similar projections though, so it’s okay to mix and match while hoping for a touchdown.
We probably won’t see another chalky defense go off for 30 points this year. The Eagles ($4,100) and Browns ($2,800) are projecting as the popular plays, and both are strong options. It doesn’t look like ownership is going to condense too heavily on any one team, though. My contrarian defensive play is Cincinnati ($3,800). They have an aggressive front and a price tag that should keep plenty of players away.
Cash Games
There’s less screaming value in cash games — particularly at running back — than we’ve had over the past few weeks. For that reason, I’ll be looking to pay down at quarterback. That probably means Russell Wilson at $5,800, but I’m considering Brock Purdy for just $100 more. Going up to Allen or Hurts doesn’t feel worth it this week, as Allen and the Bills could slow things down a bit, while the Eagles may be content to feed D’Andre Swift and Kenny Gainwell.
At running back, Kyren Williams is a free square, and Christian McCaffrey is close. Finding a third choice to pair them with is trickier. I don’t think it’s a must to play three backs this week — though it’s my preferred build — but I’ll be looking to the cheaper range for another back. That probably means Alexander Mattison or Miles Sanders ($5,800) at an identical price point.
Sanders has a better passing game role but in a worse offense, though the Vikings’ defense might make them look good. Mattison could cede some carries to Cam Akers this week, but they should have the better game flow. His lack of efficiency is concerning, but the Panthers’ defense ranks 32nd in DVOA coming in, which should help in that department.
Note: Sanders (groin) could be on the wrong side of questionable after a DNP on Friday.
At wideout, Keenan Allen is a lock this week. Expect to pay at least $500 more for him every other week this season. The week could come down to which cheap Chargers receiver has the better day, with most projection sets preferring Josh Palmer. I’m leaning heavily towards Johnston myself, but it’s a scary island to be on.
Outside of those two, it’s probably another cheaper receiver option paired with Kittle or Ertz paired with a mid-level wideout. I prefer the former build, as it’s a lot easier to find receiver production than it is at tight end. Unless Deebo Samuel plays, in which case the second option is probably the way to go.
I’m playing the elite Browns defense in cash anytime they’re under $3,000 this season, including Week 4 against the Ravens. I don’t see a reason to get cute here, at least in cash games.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL Content.
Good luck this week!
