Week 4 in the NFL features an 11-game main DFS slate this Sunday in the final week before the bye weeks begin. With a Monday Night Football doubleheader and an early game from Dublin, the player pool is a little smaller this week but still has plenty of options from the 22 teams on the board. The slate includes seven matchups that start at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by four in the late wave.
The matchup between the Rams and Colts has the highest over/under for Sunday afternoon’s games, by one point over the Bills-Saints contest. The Bills have the highest implied team total on the board, while the Lions, Rams, and Ravens also have big totals. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 4. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Drake Maye ($5,500) New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (44.5 total)
In an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, Maye has the top Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback for Week 4. He just edges out his fellow sophomore QB Caleb Williams, who is coming off a four-touchdown game against the Cowboys.
Maye and the Patriots came up just short in Week 3 due to multiple critical turnovers. He threw a pick in the end zone and also had a costly fumble, while Rhamondre Stevenson coughed the ball up twice. Maye will need to take care of the ball better against the Panthers this week, but it should be a good bounce-back spot for him since he’ll face the Panthers in Foxborough as a heavy favorite this week.
Despite the turnovers, Maye still had a good fantasy day, producing 21.2 DraftKings points by completing 28 of his 37 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns while adding 45 rushing yards on seven carries. He has over 15 DraftKings points in each game this season and has thrown for at least 230 yards in each matchup. His best game came in Week 2, when he had 26.3 DraftKings points on the road against the Dolphins.
While the Panthers shut down the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. last week, Maye seems to be much further along in his growth into a starting QB. He has a high ceiling at this salary in Week 4 and makes sense as an affordable value to build around as he continues to find success in Josh McDaniels’ offense.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Jakobi Meyers ($5,400) Las Vegas Raiders (+0.5) vs. Chicago Bears (48 total)
Meyers had a down week in Week 3, while his teammate Tre Tucker went off for all the fantasy production. Tucker was the No. 1 fantasy scorer of the week, but Meyers was still involved and will likely return to his role as the featured receiver in the Raiders’ offense in this favorable matchup against the Bears in Week 4.
Meyers has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in THE BLITZ projections and the second-highest in the aggregate projections. He brings great value at just over $5,000 and both a high ceiling and a high floor based on his role.
In his first year with coach Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith, Meyers has continued to be a target magnet. He had eight catches for 97 yards on 10 targets in Week 1, and he followed that up with an even busier 12 targets in Week 2. He only hauled in six of those looks for 68 yards but still exceeded salary-based expectations. In Week 3, he caught three of his four targets for 63 yards, while Tucker was going off for 43.9 DraftKings points on eight catches for 145 yards and three touchdowns on the other side.
Tucker’s emergence could actually help Meyers if defenses start focusing on the speedster, allowing Meyers to just vacuum up targets and catches. He’ll be in a good matchup to do just that in Week 4 against the Bears, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Playing in Vegas at Allegiant Stadium could result in a high-scoring, back-and-forth track meet, and if the offenses are both putting up points, Meyers has the potential for a monster performance.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47 total)
Value doesn’t always mean cheap, since even the most expensive players can be good values if they deliver above salary-based expectations. McCaffrey has done that in each of his three games this season, and he should be in a great spot to deliver again this week at home against Jacksonville.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way aggregate this week, and he should continue to carry a heavy enough workload to be a pay-up option as long as he’s healthy in San Francisco.
The 49ers could get Brock Purdy (left shoulder/toe) back from an injury, or they could go with Mac Jones (knee) for a third straight week, although Jones is dealing with an injury of his own now. Practice-squad member Adrian Martinez is the only other QB in San Francisco who is eligible to be on the active roster for game days at this point, but whoever plays quarterback, it’ll be CMC who likely carries the workload.
McCaffrey has exceeded salary-based expectations and posted over 22 DraftKings points in each of his first three games this year. He has managed to reach that level with only one touchdown on the year by being heavily involved as a receiver. He had nine catches in Week 1 and 10 catches in Week 3, helping to make up for his lack of touchdowns in those two contests. If he keeps getting so much work and also gets into the end zone, he has an even higher ceiling.
If you find good, cheap values in other spots that help differentiate your entry, McCaffrey can be a solid pay-up play once again this week against the Jags.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($3,600) Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Washington Commanders (45.5 total)
Pitts has had a solid start to the season for the Falcons and seems to be clicking well with Michael Penix Jr. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position this week, even though Penix and Pitts need to bounce back after last week’s letdown in Carolina.
The Falcons were shut out by the Panthers, but Pitts still had four catches for 39 yards and drew six targets. He has at least five targets in every game this year and ranks second on the team behind Drake London with 19 targets on the season. Pitts hasn’t found the end zone yet this year but has still averaged 9.5 DraftKings points per game by catching 15 passes for 135 receiving yards.
This week, he’ll go up against the Commanders, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. On the season, tight ends have 14 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown against Washington, with Tucker Kraft going off against them in Week 2 and Brock Bowers posting solid numbers against them last week. Pitts should be in a good spot to return value with a high floor and decent ceiling at home against Washington in Week 4.
Pictured: Drake Maye
Photo Credit: Imagn
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