The NFL season continues with a 13-game main DFS slate this Sunday that is the largest of the season so far and also the largest for a few weeks, with bye weeks and international matchups just around the corner. With 26 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of strong options to consider for your lineup this week. The slate includes five divisional games, with nine matchups that start at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by four in the late wave.
The matchup between the Bears and Cowboys has the highest over/under for Sunday afternoon’s games by a wide margin, and the Bears edge out the Packers for the top implied team total. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 3. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Carson Wentz ($4,000) Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (42.5 total)
In each of the three main projections and the evenly blended three-way aggregate we’ll rely on heavily in this post, Wentz has the top Projected Plus/Minus for Week 3. Wentz comes in at just $4,000 and will not have to do much to return elite value, while also leaving lots of salary to stack stars in other spots in your roster.
Wentz will be going head-to-head with another backup quarterback in Jake Browning ($5,500), but Browning’s salary is much higher. News of J.J. McCarthy’s high ankle sprain didn’t come out until Monday, so Wentz wasn’t expected to be in the lineup when the salaries came out.
The Vikings signed Wentz just before the start of the season after trading Sam Howell to the Eagles. Wentz has been a backup in each of his last two seasons, with the Chiefs last year and the Rams in 2023. He started 2022 as the primary starter for Washington but was replaced by Taylor Heinicke in Week 7.
Wentz started Week 18 against the Broncos last season, completing 10-of-17 passes for 98 yards in a game the Chiefs rested almost all their starters and lost 38-0. However, Wentz will have good pass-catchers to work with in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, and he’ll be playing in coach Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly system. The system has helped several other questionable quarterbacks put up good numbers, and Wentz will look to continue that trend this week.
He’ll have a pretty good matchup against the Bengals, who gave up plenty of passing yards to both the Browns and Jaguars in their first two games of the season.
Wentz hasn’t been a regular in a long time, but he is in a position to succeed as an ultimate bargain play this week. If you have superstars you want to play across the rest of the board, going ultra-cheap with Wentz is a strategy to consider this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Keenan Allen ($4,700) Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (46 total)
The Chargers brought back veteran Keenan Allen this offseason, and he has immediately returned to his role as a high-volume target for QB Justin Herbert. The Chargers are 2-0 after winning the late game on Monday Night Football, and they’ll host the Broncos in their home opener, even though they were officially the home team in Brazil in Week 1.
In both their games, Allen has exceeded salary-based expectations, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus this week in the three-way aggregate. He has scored a touchdown in each of his first two games this year, posting seven catches for 68 yards in Week 1 and five catches for 61 yards in Week 2. With Quentin Johnston stretching the field and Ladd McConkey getting plenty of attention from the defense as well, there has been space for Allen to thrive over the middle.
The sure-handed, 33-year-old may not be as elusive as he was in his prime, but he is the ultimate professional route-runner and has quickly established himself as a security blanket for Herbert.
With so much PPR volume coming his way, Allen is a good matchup against the Broncos and brings both a high floor and a very high ceiling in Herbert’s offense this week. He’s lined up to be an elite value play this week and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Jordan Mason ($5,400) Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (42.5 total)
The Vikings didn’t only lose the game and quarterback J.J. McCarthy in Week 2 against the Falcons, they also lost running back Aaron Jones Sr. (hamstring). Jones went from “unlikely to play” on Monday to being placed on the injured reserve on Tuesday, meaning he’ll miss the next four weeks and be eligible to return after the Vikings’ Week 6 bye week.
Jones was already sharing work with Mason, who played more snaps and got more carries than Jones in Week 1. In Week 2, the Vikings played Sunday night, and salaries came out before the injury to Jones could be factored in, leaving Mason extremely affordable this week as well. Normally, I try to avoid two players from the same team in my early look, but both Vikings are extremely inexpensive for their upside.
Mason had 33 rushing yards on nine carries against the Falcons and added eight yards on two receptions. In Week 1, he took 15 carries for 68 yards against the Bears, tacking on a seven-yard catch as well.
He’ll step in as the full-time back in a tough matchup against the Bengals, but the Vikings may try to lean more on the running game to take the pressure off Wentz. If you’re not ready to back Wentz as a bargain flier, Mason is an alternative with slightly less risk but also not quite as much salary savings.
If you really want to get wild, you could stack the two cheap Vikings, leaving even more space to pay up for your other spots.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tyler Warren ($4,400) Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans (43.5 total)
Unlike the other spots, the three sets of projections are split on the best value tight end. I’m going with Sean Koerner’s set of projections in this case and backing Warren to continue his impressive start to his NFL career with the Colts. Koerner gives Warren the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends, and he checks in third in the three-way aggregate.
Warren has been a key part of the offense under Daniel Jones and will look to keep rolling in a favorable division matchup against the Titans. Warren exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first two games.
The No. 14 overall pick had seven catches for 76 yards on nine targets in the opener, and he followed that up last week with four catches for 79 yards on seven targets against the Broncos. He also had one carry in each game this season, totaling just three yards. While he hasn’t scored his first NFL touchdown, the Colts could make it a point to get the rookie in the end zone soon since he’s such a critical part of their offense.
The Titans were one of the best matchups for tight ends last year, and they have allowed a total of 10 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown to opposing tight ends in the first two weeks of this season. Warren has the physical tools to quickly become one of the top tight ends in the league if the Colts keep finding ways to get him the ball this week. He’s not a bargain play, but he brings lots of upside for the price point where he is available.
Pictured: Jordan Mason
Photo Credit: Imagn
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