In Week 15, DraftKings offers one of the biggest Sunday slates of the season with 13 games in the main contest pool that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET. For the second straight week, eight games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, but this week there are five games in the later wave, up from three last week. Some fascinating matchups fill the scoreboard, and with 26 teams in play, there are plenty of options to consider at every position.
The Los Angeles Rams have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Lions, followed closely by their NFC West rivals, the 49ers and the Seahawks, who also have late home games. The Rams-Lions matchup has the highest over/under on the slate as well, followed by divisional matchups from the Ravens-Bengals and Bills-Patriots, who each have totals over 49. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 14. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jaxson Dart ($5,600) New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Commanders (47.5 total)
The Giants are back in action after their bye week as they host the struggling Commanders. Dart returned from his concussion the week before the bye week, and he’s still very affordable compared to his projections across the board this week.
Dart has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. We’ll rely on that three-way aggregate as a general guideline in this post, but you can customize the blend to whatever works best for you if you have access to the models.
This week, Dart has a 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first seven starts before falling short in his return against the Patriots on Monday Night Football of Week 13. In that matchup, he completed 17 of his 24 pass attempts for a total of 139 yards and a touchdown while tacking on 20 rushing yards on four attempts.
He may be more conservative running the ball after so many concussions, but the rookie still brings plenty of dual-threat upside. He had over 27 DraftKings points in three of his last four games before the injury and was riding a five-game rushing touchdown streak.
He’s in a great spot to get back on track against the Commanders, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs this season and have given up at least three passing touchdowns in five of their last seven games. J.J. McCarthy had three passing scores against them last week as their losing streak stretched to eight straight.
The Giants have lost seven straight, but one of these two eliminated teams will end their losing streak this week. Dart brings a great ceiling to this matchup, and he should be one of the best affordable options to build around at quarterback this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Adonai Mitchell ($4,600) New York Jets (+12.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (41.5 total)
Mitchell got a change of scenery and an opportunity with the Jets after a midseason trade from the Colts. The second-round pick from the 2024 NFL Draft has loads of raw talent, which gives him tantalizing upside, but he has had trouble consistently delivering on his potential.
He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers this week, behind only heavy hitters Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Marr Chase. Mitchell has shown a very high ceiling in his time with the Jets, although he still can be a very volatile option, depending on who is playing quarterback.
Last week, Tyrod Taylor (groin) only played two series, and Justin Fields (knee) was inactive, leaving rookie Brady Cook to play most of the game. Cook and Mitchell couldn’t get on the same page, and Mitchell finished with only one catch on his six targets for 24 yards. In a positive sign, the chances were still there, but Mitchell couldn’t convert them into production.
In two full weeks with Taylor at QB, Mitchell totaled 19 targets. After only two catches for 42 yards in Week 12, he posted a huge game with eight catches for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons.
That ceiling game of 27.2 DraftKings points shows his upside this week in Jacksonville, but his value will be dramatically impacted by the QB situation, so monitor practice reports closely. With Garrett Wilson (knee) and Josh Reynolds (hip) on IR, Mitchell and John Metchie III have shown upside. I like Mitchell’s ceiling a little more, which makes him the better value play in Week 15, as long as you can handle the added volatility.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
RJ Harvey ($6,000) Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
The Broncos continue to give Harvey a heavy workload without J.K. Dobbins (foot), and the rookie continues to turn in solid numbers, with his salary only moving up slightly. He has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs this week, in what should be a fascinating late game between the Broncos and Packers.
Harvey has posted back-to-back big weeks since the team’s bye week, exceeding salary-based expectations in both contests and producing 21.2 and 22.0 fantasy points. He had two touchdowns, including the overtime game-winner against the Commanders, and he had 75 rushing yards, another rushing score, and six catches for 25 yards last week against the Raiders.
While he is still sharing some work, he played a season-high 68% of snaps in Week 14, and he is clearly the top option in the rotation, while Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin do get some limited work.
In good news for Harvey’s managers, he continues to get most of the work near the goal line and has shown a knack for getting into the end zone. He has nine total touchdowns in his 13 games and has been effective as both a rusher and receiver in the red zone.
The Packers are a slightly below-average matchup for Harvey, but they did allow 120 rushing yards to the Bears’ running backs last week and 100 rushing yards and a touchdown to the Lions’ running backs the week before. They’ve been good against the run, but it’s not an absolute “stay away” situation.
Even though the matchup isn’t perfect, Harvey still definitely has the potential to be a great value at this salary. This matchup in the Mile High City should be a fun one, and Harvey will look to keep his Broncos stampeding towards the AFC West title.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Theo Johnson ($3,500) New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Commanders (47.5 total)
Johnson has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end this week since the big names on the board are all priced up. Johnson has been very steady this season, so he’s relatively low-risk at this price point, while also bringing a high ceiling, especially if you opt to make a value stack with him and Dart.
The second-year tight end from Penn State has at least three catches in seven straight games and has totaled 42 catches for 456 yards and five touchdowns in his 13 games this season. He has been the No. 15 tight end on the season, offering steady involvement and plenty of touchdown potential.
In his last game before the bye week, he matched his season high with eight targets against the Patriots, finishing with three catches for 29 yards. While he hasn’t hit 100 yards in any game yet, he did have at least 75 yards in two of his last four games, showing he has a good ceiling to go with his solid floor.
The Commanders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, allowing 10 tight-end touchdowns in 13 games and an average of 61.4 yards per game to the position. Johnson runs enough deep routes to bring a high ceiling to the matchup and gets enough targets that he makes a lot of sense either in a stack with Dart or as a standalone value play in Week 15.
Pictured: Jaxson Dart
Photo Credit: Imagn
