For the second straight week, there are 11 games on the main slate this Sunday afternoon. Last week was almost all divisional matchups, but this week, there are just three divisional contests, including a showdown between the Eagles and Cowboys in the featured spot in the later window. With 22 teams once again in the player pool, there are plenty of interesting options to consider at every position.
The Detroit Lions have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Giants, followed closely by the Patriots against the Bengals and the Ravens against the Jets. The highest over/under on the slate is from the early-window showdown between the Colts and the Chiefs in Kansas City. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 10. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jacoby Brissett ($5,300) Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 total)
Brissett takes the top spot in our early look values at quarterback for the second week in a row. Even though his salary went up $400, he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. We’ll rely on that three-way aggregate as a general guideline in this post, but you can customize the blend to whatever works best for you if you have access to the models.
Brissett ended up in another pass-heavy game script last week against the 49ers after San Francisco scored early and often in Arizona. Brissett attempted a whopping 57 passes, completing 47 (82.5%) for 452 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
He exceeded salary-based expectations for the fifth straight week and posted his best total of the season with 26.88 DraftKings points. He did all that without his top receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix), who missed the game after having his appendix removed last week.
Brissett and the Cardinals are at home again this week in a similar matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense has been solid against the run, but opposing quarterbacks have averaged the sixth-most fantasy points per game.
With Emari Demercado (ankle) not expected to play and Trey Benson (knee) unlikely to return from IR, the weight of the offense will again be on Brissett, and he’s shown he can rise to the challenge and take on a heavy workload. Even with the picks last week, his string of five games with exactly two touchdowns makes him a good value play headed into the weekend. You can pair him with Trey McBride at tight end or grab his cheap receivers, with Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch getting more work if Harrison misses another game, as expected.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
DeVonta Smith ($5,600) Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys (47.5 total)
Smith has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers this week as his Eagles fly south to take on the Cowboys, who are on a short week after a win on Monday Night Football.
Smith didn’t have a big week last week, since the team fed A.J. Brown 11 targets after his vocal week leading up to their matchup with the Lions. Smith only had one catch on his five targets for a meager eight yards, but he should be in a bounce-back spot against the Cowboys.
Before last week’s letdown, he had at least four catches in five straight games with a pair of touchdowns during that stretch and three games of at least 80 yards. He had exceeded salary-based expectations in four of those five games as well.
His salary on DraftKings climbed to $6,000, but it was dropped back to $5,600 this week, giving him a 93% Bargain Rating.
Smith should be poised to bounce back with a big week against the Cowboys, who allow the second-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers. Opposing receivers have an astounding 17 touchdowns in their 10 games this season while averaging 163.4 receiving yards per contest.
The target share with Brown should level out this week, and Smith has been the more dynamic playmaker of the two receivers this season. Since the Cowboys have been so beatable through the air, he should be a great value in a bounce-back game with a high ceiling.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Emanuel Wilson ($5,300) Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (40.5 total)
Each of the three sets of projections gives a different running back the top spot in their Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Chase Brown gets the nod from Raybon, but the Patriots have been exceptional against the run. Bijan Robinson sits atop Sean Koerner’s Plus/Minus projections at the position, but he’s extremely expensive and will need a monster game to return good value. In this spot, I’m going with Derek Carty’s pick and highlighting Emanuel Wilson, who should be lined up for more work as long as Josh Jacobs (knee) needs at least one game to recover from his knee bruise.
Wilson has been the Packers’ top backup all season with MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) on IR. Wilson had been working his way into a larger role over the last few weeks, playing at least 19 snaps in three of his last four games coming into Sunday’s game against the Giants. He played 39 snaps (71%) since Jacobs left in the second quarter with a knee injury.
Since an MRI revealed no structural damage for Jacobs, coach Matt LaFleur said Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee contusion, which still gives him a chance to play this week. If Wilson starts, though, he has a very good chance of returning value.
The third-year running back out of Fort Valley rushed 11 times for 40 yards and a touchdown against the Giants, adding a nine-yard reception. He finished with 13.9 DraftKings points, his best mark of the season, and his third game with over 11 DraftKings points.
For the season, he is now up to 53 carries for 220 rushing yards and a touchdown with 11 catches on 13 targets for 69 receiving yards as well. He will likely step in as the featured back if Jacobs is out this week, although Chris Brooks could get a little time as well.
The Vikings rank in the middle of the pack as a running back matchup, allowing seven touchdowns and an average of 104.4 rushing yards per game to the position so far this season. Last week, the Bears’ running backs had 111 rushing yards and a touchdown against them.
Wilson’s salary of just over $5,000 makes him a solid bargain value this week, and he won’t have to do much to exceed his relatively low salary-based expectations.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Mark Andrews ($3,800) Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) vs. New York Jets (44.5 total)
Andrews has the highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end this week and has found his form after a few down games while Lamar Jackson missed time with an injury.
Andrews has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games since Jackson has been back under center, scoring three receiving touchdowns totaling 68 yards on eight catches and 13 targets. He had five targets in each of his last two games, and on Sunday, he took a direct snap 35 yards for a touchdown on a rushing play as well.
He has double-digit DraftKings points in five straight games that Jackson started, and with Lamar ready for action against the Jets this week, Andrews should be set up to again return value. The Jets have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, making him a value play under $4,000 that seems dramatically underpriced relative to his recent workload.
Pictured: DeVonta Smith
Photo Credit: Imagn
