The NFL season kicks off Week 1 with some great matchups and exciting primetime showcases, along with an excellent 12-game main DFS slate that kicks off Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Eight games start in the early wave, including three divisional matchups, followed by four games in the second wave of games that includes the Lions visiting the Packers in one of the biggest games of the week.
Three games share the highest over/under for Sunday afternoon’s games, as the Bengals-Browns, Bucs-Falcons, and Lions-Packers games all have point totals of 47.5. The Bengals have the highest implied team total, with the Commanders and Broncos close behind. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 15. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Trevor Lawrence ($5,300) Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (46.5 total)
Coming into Week 1, Lawrence has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ.
The Jaguars brought in a new head coach for their star QB in Liam Coen and upgraded their offense by drafting Travis Hunter and signing Dyami Brown to supplement Brian Thomas Jr., who had a monster rookie season.
Lawrence was limited to 10 games last season and threw for 2,045 yards with 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and just a 60.6% completion rate. The Jags are counting on Coen to get the Jaguars offense going after he served as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator in 2024 and helped turn around their offense with Baker Mayfield at the helm.
The Coen-Lawrence era should be in a good place to get started since no team on Sunday’s main slate allowed more DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last year than the Panthers. Carolina worked to improve its defense this offseason, but the Panthers should still be a favorable spot for Lawrence to start his bounce-back season after playing only one game since Week 9 of last season. He looked good in the system this preseason and should be ready to get off to a fast start in 2025.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Emeka Egbuka ($4,600) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total)
Liam Coen’s former team, the Bucs, is set to start the season in Atlanta, taking on the Falcons in a divisional matchup. In his NFL debut, Egbuka is set to carry a significant workload and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections.
The Bucs drafted Egbuka with the No. 19 overall pick in last year’s draft, and he had a great training camp and a solid preseason. While he was establishing a connection with Mayfield and impressing coaches, the depth chart opened up above him since Jalen McMillan (neck) took a nasty fall and suffered a severely strained neck that could keep him out for the first half of the season. Chris Godwin (ankle) avoided joining McMillan on IR to start the season but is still expected to be sidelined until October. Without McMillan and Godwin, Egbuka will open the year as the team’s second receiver behind only Mike Evans.
Egbuka starred at Ohio State throughout his college career and has quickly picked up Josh Grizzard’s new offense. He is definitely still boom-or-bust since he’s making his debut, but he has a very high ceiling in what has been a very prolific passing offense the last few seasons.
He’ll start with a great matchup against the Falcons, who allowed the third-most DraftKings points to receivers last season. He seems poised for a breakout season, and this is a great place to get started in Week 1.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
James Conner ($6,100) Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints (43.5 total)
Every position is a little uncertain coming into Week 1, but running back feels even more unsettled than the rest of the spots, since so many new timeshares and rotations seem up in the air coming into Week 1. Each of the three sets of projections has a different running back with the top Projected Plus/Minus, but Conner has the top spot in the three-way aggregate.
He and the Cardinals are favored on the road against the Saints, and if the team plays from ahead, that game script could lead to a big workload for the veteran running back. Last year, Conner played 16 games and posted his second straight season with over 1,000 rushing yards. He had nine total touchdowns and also hauled in 47 catches for 414 yards.
He may share more time this season with second-year running back Trey Benson, but he is clearly still the starter and primary back in an offense that should have success and put up plenty of points in Week 1.
Conner exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games before getting injured against the Rams last year
The Saints allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs last season, so Conner should be a good spot to grab some nice value on DraftKings, where he also has a 94% Bargain Rating, meaning he’ll take a smaller portion of your salary cap than on other sites.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Brenton Strange ($3,300) Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (46.5 total)
Strange and Lawrence make a great value stack this week against Carolina, and Strange has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregate projections. He gets a great matchup and has shown a high ceiling. Last year in Tampa Bay, Coen’s offense made Cade Otton a high-volume producer, and Strange could put up similar numbers this year.
The third-year tight end from Penn State had 40 catches for 411 yards and two touchdowns last year, highlighted by an 11-catch game against the Jets in December. His strong finish to the year allowed the Jaguars to release veteran Evan Engram this offseason, making Strange the clear starter coming into the season.
With Thomas and Hunter getting most of the targets, Strange may not get huge volume, but he should be a solid option for Lawrence in the middle of the field and could develop as a strong red-zone target as well. He built strong chemistry with Lawrence in training camp, according to reports from ESPN’s Michael DiRocco, and that could translate to a great start to the season for Strange as a very affordable Week 1 play at tight end.
Pictured: James Conner
Photo Credit: Imagn
