Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Chicago Bears OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #2 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL
For the second week in a row, the Bears rank near the top in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. Last week it didn’t work out as planned, with the Bears putting up just 16 points against the Ravens. However, the Ravens’ poor numbers heading into that game were partially explained by injury, and they were much healthier coming off a bye week.
If anything, we have the opposite situation with the Bengals. They’re neck-and-neck with the Cowboys for the worst overall defense in the league and are very likely to be without their best defensive player, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson attempted to return from injury last week but re-aggravated it, which will probably lead to a more extended absence now.
This is at worst a solid matchup for the Bears’ entire offense, and if Hendrickson misses, it becomes an elite one. Either way, Caleb Williams ($5,700) and D’Andre Swift ($6,100) should both be considered high-upside plays.
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Indianapolis Colts OL (#4 In Combined Line Yards, #3 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans DL
The Colts offensive line ranks top five in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate, so it doesn’t particularly matter who their opponent is in any given week. With that said, the Steelers defense is especially vulnerable against the run, ranking 24th in adjusted line yards on defense.
That’s good news for the fantasy football first-half MVP, Jonathan Taylor ($9,800). DraftKings continues to raise his price in an attempt to make rostering him a tough call, but he continues to live up to the increasing salary. He’s topped 30 DraftKings points in five of his eight games and is coming off his first 40-point game of the season.
With the Colts favored in a game with a 50-point over/under, everything is pointing his way this week. It’s also not a bad spot for Daniel Jones ($6,200) and the passing offense, but Taylor is the focal point of the offense — and should be the focal point of your roster building this week.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL
The Lions are #1 with a bullet this week, as they take on a Vikings team that comes into the week ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate allowed. On top of that, both of their starting tackles are questionable, with another on injured reserve, plus opening-day starting center Ryan Kelly is also on IR.
That’s to say nothing of their quarterback situation. With Carson Wentz out for the year, they’re being forced to go back to JJ McCarthy ($4,900), who hasn’t played since Week 2 due to an “injury” that seemed a lot more like a benching. This will be just the third NFL game for McCarthy, and he took nine total sacks in the other two despite not even completing one of the games.
Welcoming him back to action is the aggressive Detroit ($3,700) defense that ranks top-five in adjusted sack rate and is close to full strength following their bye week (and the return from suspension for Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch). It’s hard to picture a worse spot for McCarthy, and the Lions are favored by 8.5, so they’re the obvious top choice if you can find the salary.
Atlanta Falcons DL (#3 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots OL
The Falcons are hard to trust, as they’ve been one of the league’s most inconsistent units. Overall, they rank ninth in adjusted sack rate, but the variance has been insane. They allowed both the Panthers and the Dolphins to top 30 points while picking up just one sack in each of those games but also limited the Bills to 14 points, forcing Josh Allen into four sacks and two interceptions.
Now they have a matchup somewhere in the middle against the Patriots, who’ve made big strides under young QB Drake Maye ($6,500). Maye is very reminiscent of a young Allen, capable of making huge plays but also giving up his share of sacks and turnovers. He’s been sacked 10 times over the last two games against the Titans and Browns, whose defensive lines both rank right around the Falcons’.
Which makes Atlanta ($2,500) a high-risk, high-reward option with a cheap price tag this week. I’m not sure I can trust them in cash games again, but for GPPs they’ll be a fun semi-contrarian choice.
Picture: Daniel Jones, Colts offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
