Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Indianapolis Colts OL (#3 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Chargers DL
Jonathan Taylor ($8,800) is the RB1 in DraftKings scoring on the season, going for at least 25 points in four of the Colts’ first six games. Now he gets to face a struggling Chargers defense that ranks 16th in adjusted line yards.
The real edge lies in the passing game, though. Los Angeles has been a mediocre unit in terms of rushing the passer, but the Colts have allowed a league-low five sacks for just a 2.5% adjusted sack rate. Perhaps it’s no surprise that they’re the NFL’s highest-scoring team through six weeks.
Nothing about this matchup necessarily stands out for the Colts, but it’s not a downgrade either. When they’ve been the most productive offense in the league, all of their key contributors are firmly in play. Daniel Jones ($6,000) and the passing attack might be the better option this week based on game script, but it’s hard to go wrong with any of their players.
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Minnesota Vikings OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #19 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles DL
We have a pair of offensive units that project to do well in run blocking but struggle in pass protection this week. The first of those is the Vikings, who rank seventh in adjusted line yards but 32nd in adjusted sack rate—though that may be more about their quarterback play than their offensive line.
Either way, that makes the path of least resistance against the Eagles clear. Philly ranks 31st in adjusted line yards on defense and has allowed opposing backs to put up at least 24 DraftKings points in five of six games this season. With Aaron Jones not eligible to return from injured reserve until next week, that means Jordan Mason ($6,200) is in a good spot again.
His salary has adjusted upwards for his starting role, but with this week’s matchup he could easily pay it off.
Washington Commanders OL (#2 In Combined Line Yards, #12 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL
The other team that should have much more success on the ground than through the air is the Washington Commanders. They’re also favored in the highest total game of the week while taking on a Cowboys team that’s allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game on the season.
Which makes it especially convenient that Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,100) seems to have taken over the backfield. He saw a snap rate of more than 50% for the first time last week, playing on two-thirds of the Commanders’ offensive plays while handling 17 carries. Like Mason, he’s more appropriately priced than underpriced, but the excellent matchup makes him a solid option regardless.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants OL
The clear and obvious number one team defense play this week is Denver ($3,500). The Giants are implied for the fewest points of any team on the slate, the Broncos are seven-point favorites, and they lead the league in both sacks (30) and adjusted sack rate by a wide margin.
They’re taking on a rookie QB in Jaxson Dart ($5,200), who has had his moments but has also taken eight sacks, thrown two interceptions, and fumbled once through three games. This is about as perfect of a setup for a team defense as there is, so the Broncos are an excellent play if you can afford them.
Carolina Panthers DL (#6 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Jets OL
On the cheaper end, Carolina ($2,500) is facing a Jets team that’s tied for last in sacks allowed while ranking 31st in adjusted sack rate. Ironically, the Panthers rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate forced, so this is a matchup of an easily stopped force against a movable object.
Which group will end up being less futile is hard to predict, but the Panthers are slight favorites in a game with a low total—so at worst they’re a solid floor play.
Picture: Daniel Jones, Colts offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
