Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting last week but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #4 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens DL
While the injury to QB Lamar Jackson has drawn most of the attention, the Ravens defense has been beat up as well. Through five games, they now rank 27th in adjusted line yards and dead last in adjusted sack rate. The latter may be more the fault of their secondary than their defensive front, but either way, they aren’t getting to the QB before wide receivers get open.
As of Wednesday, four of their defensive starters are listed as questionable, including key contributors Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, plus two of their three starting corners in their base nickel defense. With everyone healthy, they are much better than the early season numbers indicate, but that probably won’t happen this week.
Plus, the Rams give us plenty of potential DFS goodness. Matthew Stafford concentrates more than 50% of his passes between Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, while running back Kyren Williams is fifth in the NFL in total opportunities. Assuming the Ravens’ soft defense increases their efficiency, any or all of them could be in for a big day like the Cowboys super stack that took down the milly maker in Week 5.
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Dallas Cowboys OL (#2 In Combined Line Yards, #2 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
Speaking of the Cowboys, they have another good matchup in Week 6, one week after dropping 37 points on the Jets and producing some elite fantasy scores along the way.
The scary part is that Carolina’s defense is considerably worse than the Jets, so the Week 6 outlook for Dallas is even stronger. Complicating matters is the possible return of CeeDee Lamb to the Cowboys, though. One of the nice things about rostering Dallas players was how concentrated the offense was without Lamb.
That doesn’t impact the ground game, though, and Javonte Williams is the #3 back in all of fantasy and now gets his best on-paper matchup of the season. His DFS salaries haven’t really caught up to his production, but this is probably the last week we’ll be able to say that.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New Orleans Saints DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots OL
The beauty of adjusted line yards is that it allows us to parse out how good a unit is from their situation. For example, the Saints Defense ($2,400) ranks in the middle of the pack with 11 sacks on the season, but at 1-4 haven’t put their opponents in many pass-heavy game scripts. They rank third in adjusted sack rate on the season, which shows they’ve made the most of their opportunities.
We saw that in Week 5, when they finally got a positive game script and turned it into a sack, five turnovers, and a defensive touchdown. Unfortunately, they’re still underdogs this week — but by just 3.5 points.
The likeliest scenario is they continue to make the most of their chances against a mediocre-to-bad Pats defensive line, easily paying off their small salary. The upside case is they get off to a lead and turn in another big day. They’re a solid play in either case.
Los Angeles Rams DL (#2 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens OL
This is the second appearance for the Rams, and again their fortunes are tied to the health of the Ravens, in this case Lamar Jackson.
While we tend to view sacks as the responsibility of the offensive line, they’re also a QB stat. A less mobile QB like Cooper Rush is going to be easier to bring down than Jackson, which impacts how many sacks the team allows. Plus, Rush is going to produce less offense, leading to more negative game scripts and obvious passing situations for the Ravens offense.
The Rams Defense ($3,500) is overpriced for a matchup against Lamar Jackson but fairly priced, if not underpriced, against Rush. They’re an interesting spend-up option in GPPs if Jackson is out again.
Picture: Rams offensive line and teammates
Photo Credit: Imagn
