Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
It’s finally Week 5, which means the adjusted line yard data is now matchup adjusted. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles DL
One of the reasons I get so excited for the Week 5 matchup adjustments is because we can finally see which preseason assumptions are correct. Pro Football Focus ranked the Eagles defensive line #2 in the league heading into the season — but they haven’t performed that way so far.
The Eagles rank 31st in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate through four games played. One of those games had star defensive tackle Jalen Carter ejected before the first snap, but that’s not enough to explain all of what we’re seeing here.
On the Broncos side, they’re a top-five unit in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate offensively, so they should be able to move the ball well here. They’re slight underdogs, which is good news for Bo Nix ($5,700) and the passing attack, and JK Dobbins ($5,500) has been a top-five back in yards per carry, so the entire offense is in play.
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Detroit Lions OL (#2 In Combined Line Yards, #2 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL
Conversely, nobody expected the Bengals defense or defensive line to be good coming into the season, and that assumption has been proven entirely correct. The Bengals rank dead last in adjusted line yards and are taking on a very strong Lions unit.
On top of that, Detroit is the heaviest favorite on the slate and has a bottom-three Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season. That means they should have, by far, the heaviest rush rate on the slate. Frustratingly, they split attempts roughly 60/40 between Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) and David Montgomery ($5,200).
However, much like Week 3 in Baltimore, this could be a spot where both Montgomery and Gibbs put up big scores. That was the best fantasy game to date for both Gibbs and Montgomery, who combined for nearly 60 points. That would be more than 4x their combined Week 5 salaries, making a Lions running back block an interesting GPP option.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Houston Texans DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens OL
If Lamar Jackson misses Week 5 as expected, Houston ($2,400) will be the clear best defense on the slate. Even with Jackson at QB, Baltimore has allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL this season. It’s hard to see that number getting better with Cooper Rush at QB while facing a Houston defense with a top-ten adjusted sack rate.
On top of that, the Texans are now slight favorites while priced as one of the cheapest units on the slate. It’s hard to see a reason not to use them outside of ownership, as they’re an obvious enough play that the field won’t miss it.
Detroit Lions DL (#2 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals OL
On the other end of the salary skill, Detroit ($3,500) is also in an excellent spot this week, though they may go overlooked due to the price point.
They’re also taking on a backup QB in Jake Browning, playing behind a bottom-five offensive line. Plus, the Lions pass rush has lived up to expectations this season, ranking second in both adjusted sack rate and total sacks.
With our interest in the Lions ground game, pairing one or both Detroit backs with the team defense makes a lot of sense as a stack. Gibbs will be popular but less so when paired with his defense, which is a good way to be slightly unique while still playing some of the top plays.
Picture: Bo Nix, Broncos offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
