Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
The data continues to improve in significance now that we have three full weeks to reference. The numbers still aren’t adjusted for opponent quality, so a team with strong numbers may have just played three bad opponents, but meaningful trends are emerging.
We’ll start using the combined adjusted line metrics to rank our teams this week, but still reference the more qualitative sources where needed.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
New England Patriots OL (#2 In Combined Line Yards, #3 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
This entry is due to the terrible play of the Panther’s defense, especially their defensive front. They rank 28th in adjusted line yards and 32nd in adjusted sack rate on the season. That’s even after shutting out the Falcons last week, which says more about Atlanta than anything else.
While last season the Panthers gave up tons of fantasy production to running backs, at least so far this season it’s been the passing game that’s benefited from the matchup. The Patriots ground game has struggled with fumbles and a New England passing stack just won the Milly Maker, so it seems fairly obvious which way to approach this one.
The lack of pass rush also means Drake Maye ($5,500) should be able to attack downfield with his wide receivers more than he did last week against Pittsburgh. In retrospect, Hunter Henry ($4,000) seeing the bulk of the production for New England was probably a result of Maye needing to get the ball out quickly and checking down to the tight end.
Keep that in mind if building around Maye this week, as downfield threats like Kayshon Boutte ($4,300) should have an easier go of it.
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Kansas City Chiefs OL (#3 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens DL
This is the kind of projection that is potentially misleading at this point in the season. Baltimore ranks 30th in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate through three games. Two of those games came against top-tier offenses in the Bills and Lions.
However, they also allowed 17 points to the Browns, the highest score for the Browns in a game all season. With the Bills and the Lions both having their way against this defense, it’s possible that they’re actually just bad, or at least overrated.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) is still priced more for his name than his actual fantasy production, but with the likely shootout here, this is a good week to take a chance on him. The price tag makes him a solid pay-upcontrarian option in what’s a better matchup than it appears.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New England Patriots DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers OL
The Patriots Defense ($3,100) has forced nine sacks and four turnovers through three games and is now facing the Panthers as heavy favorites. Carolina hasn’t been terrible offensively but has faced three defenses ranked #21 or worse in Brandon Anderson’s preseason rankings.
He had the Patriots as a top-ten unit coming into the season, and they’ve performed as such — at least from a fantasy perspective.
The game flow, matchup, and location of this game all make it a fairly ideal situation to roster the Patriots defense. At $3,100 they aren’t exactly cheap, but they’re also not going to break the bank, making them a solid option in all contest types.
Detroit Lions DL (#2 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL
For a more contrarian team defense option, consider Detroit ($3,500). They’re now favored by double digits at some books and are taking on the Browns, who rank 30th in points per game.
Plus, the Lions defense has been impressive since their poor Week 1 performance against the Packers. They’ve picked up 11 sacks the past two games, including 11 against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. While they’ve allowed too many points to have elite fantasy scores, it’s unlikely that’s a problem against the Browns.
The Browns defense is strong enough, especially against the run, that I’m not interested in pairing the Lions defense with either of their running backs. Still, they’re a solid one-off in lineups where you have the salary.
Picture: Drake Maye, Patriots Offense
Photo Credit: Imagn
