Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Miami Dolphins OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #6 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL
One of the best fantasy assets of the last month or so has been De’Von Achane ($8,800), who has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last five games with four touchdowns during that stretch. The last two weeks have been somewhat quiet for him, though, with 152 yards between the two games.
Those games came against the Jets and Steelers, two roughly league-average defenses by adjusted line yards. This week, they take on the Bengals — by far the worst rushing defense in the league. The Bengals defense has allowed 5.32 adjusted line yards per snap, with no other team in the league above 4.90.
Plus, Cincinnati’s offense is potent enough that Miami won’t be able to ease up on Achane’s workload the way they did against the Jets, when he turned seven carries into 92 yards in a blowout win. It’s hard to envision a better setup for a running back, and Achane will be one of the best plays on the slate.
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Denver Broncos OL (#6 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL
The Jaguars’ lack of a pass rush has been an issue most of the season, as they rank 28th in adjusted sack rate on the season. That’s led to some big QB scores in certain matchups, with five opposing passers going for at least 27 DraftKings points. In total, they rank 23rd in points allowed to the position.
Which means this is a solid spot for Bo Nix ($6,100), who comes in with a reasonable price tag for a player who dropped 32 points last week. He and the Broncos should also have a solid game script, as they’re favored by just three points.
The solid pass protection also raises my interest in the Broncos’ deep threats, with wide receivers Courtland Sutton ($5,700) and Troy Franklin ($5,200) both featuring aDOTs in the double digits. Franklin in particular has been very boom-or-bust this season, and this is one of the likelier spots for a boom.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Atlanta Falcons DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals OL
The Cardinals rank bottom-five in both overall sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate, making them one of the better teams to roster opposing defenses against. This week the opportunity belongs to the Falcons ($2,700), who produced five sacks and an interception last week against an objectively better offense in the Buccaneers.
With the Falcons just $2,700, their price tag makes them an affordable high-upside option for cash games and GPPs alike.
Houston Texans DL (#3 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders OL
On the higher end of the spectrum, Houston ($4,000) gets a juicy matchup against the Raiders, who have taken a league-high 54 sacks in 14 games. While sacks don’t score all that well in and of themselves, they’re a solid proxy for pressure in general, which turns into turnovers and potential defensive touchdowns.
Houston averages the highest points per game of any defense at 9.5 per game, and they’re taking on the Raiders, who have given up the most points to opposing defenses, making this the best possible combination of defense and opponent. We’ve seen team defenses break the slate a few times this season, so I’ll have some exposure to Houston, and their high price tag should keep ownership reasonable.
Picture: Bo Nix, Broncos offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
