Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #9 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Detroit Lions DL
The Rams rank third in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, but they also lead the league in adjusted line yards offensively. Opposing defenses are typically far more concerned with the Rams’ passing attack than they are with stopping the run, which has allowed them to be one of the league’s more efficient rushing offenses.
That sets them up nicely against Detroit, whose defensive line ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate but 17th in adjusted line yards. The Lions’ front is built to rush the passer, but that should open up plenty of rushing lanes for the Rams.
The difficulty from a DFS perspective is the ever-increasing involvement of Blake Corum ($4,800). He has 19 carries over the past two games compared to 26 for Kyren Williams ($6,800), making it hard to be especially confident in rostering either player. It might come down to game script, as Corum typically handles a heavier workload in games that the Rams are winning comfortably, while Williams is in more high-leverage situations.
The Rams being favored by 5.5 points doesn’t give many hints, but the best strategy is probably to play Corum in lineups built around a Rams blowout — perhaps pairing him with their team defense — and Williams in lineups built around a closer game.
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Cincinnati Bengals OL (#15 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens DL
Joe Burrow ($6,600) and his star receivers were finally reunited last week, and while it didn’t lead to a Bengals win, it was a fruitful day for fantasy purposes. Burrow threw for 284 yards and four touchdowns in a loss to the Bills and now gets a much better matchup against the Ravens.
Baltimore currently ranks 31st in adjusted line yards, which should lead to more clean pockets for Burrow. Hopefully that should help him cut back on the negative plays, with two interceptions and a sack taken last week. Baltimore is unlikely to produce the pressure necessary to force Burrow into those bad plays but will also be able to produce enough offense to keep the Bengals aggressive.
Which could be the perfect scenario for the Bengals’ passing attack as they look to play spoiler against the Ravens.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Houston Texans DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals OL
Since taking over as the Cardinals starter, Jacoby Brissett ($5,500) has been a fun fantasy option — both for himself and for the opposing defense. Brissett has piled up plenty of yardage and touchdowns, but he’s also taken 30 sacks in his eight games while throwing five interceptions.
How much of that is the fault of Brissett compared to the offensive line is up for debate but isn’t actually important for DFS reasons. Especially this week against Houston ($3,600), a top-five team in adjusted sack rate on the season.
With the Texans favored by around ten points, the high PROE Cardinals should give them plenty of chances to pin their ears back and rush the passer. The price tag on their defense should keep their ownership fairly low, but they could be the slate-breaking pay up defense this week.
New Orleans Saints DL (#5 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers OL
New Orleans ($2,500) has been one of the better budget options at team defense in recent weeks, consistently putting up at least a few points at some of the cheapest price tags on the slate. They’re in a strong position to repeat that this week, as they travel to Carolina to take on their NFC South rivals.
New Orleans is just a 2.5-point underdog, which is one of the closest betting lines they’ve had in recent memory. The Panthers rank slightly below average in both turnovers per game and adjusted sack rate, while the Saints’ pass rush ranks eighth in the latter category.
The problem has typically been game scripts that don’t force the opponent to pass, but a reasonably tight betting line this week means the chances should be there. For cash games or lineups where you’re spending up elsewhere, the Saints are a solid, if unexciting, punt option.
Picture: Matthew Stafford, Rams offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
