Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Buffalo Bills OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #6 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL
“Offense against the Bengals” continues to dominate the top spot in our adjusted line yards rankings. That’s due to the extreme ineptitude of the Bengals defense, specifically the run defense. They rank 32nd in adjusted line yards, with a bigger gap between them and #31 than the gap from #31 to #24.
The one potential cause for optimism is the return of top defensive lineman Trey Hendrickson, but he’s listed as doubtful for this weekend’s contest. His return would move the Bengals defense from truly terrible to just merely bad, but it needs to be factored in before rostering Bills’ pieces.
Particularly running back James Cook ($7,800), who has been fairly game-script dependent. He saw 32 carries in a Bills win last week, and the continued absence of Hendrickson would not only boost his efficiency but also raise the likelihood of a positive game script.
While it’s not a bad matchup for the passing game, I’m much more interested in the running game thanks to the Bills being solid favorites in this matchup.
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Green Bay Packers OL (#3 In Combined Line Yards, #4 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
It’s a bit too early to worry about the weather at Lambeau this weekend, but if the conditions aren’t terrible, we could see a sneaky shootout between two NFC North rivals. Both the Bears and the Packers are projecting as positive matchups in run blocking and pass blocking this week, with the edge in both categories going to the favored Packers.
The best way to approach Green Bay offensively depends on how you think this game plays out. If it goes according to the betting odds — which have Green Bay favored by about a touchdown — than running back Josh Jacobs ($6,800) is the obvious answer. He saw 17 carries in last week’s win over the Lions, but that was his first game back after suffering an injury.
With an extended break between games (since the Packers played on Thursday last week) and another week removed from his injury, he could easily see a huge workload if the Packers control the game. On the other hand, if Chicago can keep pace, Jordan Love ($5,900) and the passing offense are in a sneaky-good spot.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders OL
Picking on the Raiders with D/ST choices has been a solid plan this year, considering they rank 31st worst in the NFL with 46 sacks allowed and 25th in turnovers. That’s especially true when facing a tough defense like the Broncos ($3,900), who lead the league in both overall sacks and adjusted sack rate.
Denver will be a somewhat contrarian option this week because there’s an extremely obvious, cheaper play that will garner most of the attention. However, we just saw last week how valuable paying up for a premium defensive option can be. They’ll be one of my favorite GPP spend-up choices.
Washington Commanders DL (#4 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL
That obvious unit is the Commanders ($2,800), who get to face a Vikings team that allowed 30 points to the opposing D/ST in a shutout loss last week. A big chunk of that was due to the poor quarterback play from Max Brosmer, an undrafted free agent rookie who made his first career start.
It’s unclear early in the week whether Brosmer will get another shot or if JJ McCarthy ($4,700) will return for Minnesota. While that’s obviously impactful, things weren’t much better for McCarthy. He took 11 sacks and threw seven interceptions in his recent four-game run of being the starter.
Washington’s defense is roughly league average in getting to the QB, but that’s more than enough in this matchup and at their price tag.
Picture: James Cook, Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
