Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #3 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals DL
The Bengals defense is the gift that keeps on giving for DFS, ranking either last or second-to-last in nearly every relevant statistical category. That specifically applies to the defensive line, where they rank 32nd in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate.
The problem this week is figuring out how to benefit from that information. The Steelers aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse, and their offense is fairly spread out. DK Metcalf ($5,100) has topped seven targets just once, and Jaylen Warren ($6,100) only has one game over 16 carries.
Either way, the increased time for downfield routes to develop raises the chances of Metcalf snagging a long ball, and with Pittsburgh a healthy favorite, Warren could see a slightly increased workload. Neither are high-confidence plays, but both have a stronger than usual chance of a big game.
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Carolina Panthers OL (#2 In Combined Line Yards, #17 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
We don’t have the problem of figuring out who to roster in DFS for the Panthers. They’re facing a run-funnel Falcons defense that ranks 31st in adjusted line yards but second in adjusted sack rate. They’ve also given up on keeping a split backfield, with Rico Dowdle ($6,800) drawing 43 carries over the past two weeks to just eight for Chuba Hubbard ($4,800).
The only slight problem is the game script. Atlanta — who projects much better in pass blocking — is favored, which should theoretically push the Falcons to the run and the Panthers to the pass. However, the spread is just 3.5, so both teams should be able to execute whichever style of offense they prefer.
Last week, we saw the Milly Maker taken down by a lineup that stacked the favorite’s passing attack with an underdog running back — that type of build is firmly in play here with Hubbard.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Chicago Bears DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL
This entry is more about the Vikings offensive line and bad quarterback play than it is about the Bears defense. Chicago’s pass rush ranks 17th in adjusted sack rate, almost precisely in the middle of the pack. However, the Vikings offense ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate allowed — though it’s hard to say if that’s the fault of the blocking or the quarterbacks they’ve had under center.
Since J.J. McCarthy ($5,200) retook his starting position, he’s suffered six sacks and thrown three interceptions across two games. In his two previous starts, he took nine sacks and threw three interceptions, despite not finishing the second contest.
Either way, that’s a lot of potential points to the opposing defense, and Chicago ($2,800) has quietly hit double-digits in four of their nine games so far this season. They aren’t quite cheap enough to be a cash game punt option, but they’ll be a solid upside play for GPPs that should come in with low ownership since the Vikings are favored.
Houston Texans DL (#2 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL
On the upper end of the salary scale, the best play is clearly the Texans ($3,800). Part of that is the matchup: they’re taking on a Titans team that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed, 24th in turnovers per game, and dead last in points per game.
It’s not only the matchup, though. The Texans defense is an elite unit overall, allowing the fewest points in the league, forcing the fourth-most turnovers, and ranking ninth in adjusted sack rate. Anytime we can get the best scoring defense against the worst scoring offense, they’re going to project well, and such is the case with Houston in Week 11.
They’re probably too pricey for cash games, but we’ll see if enough value opens up elsewhere to make them viable. At worst, they’re a very strong GPP play, though it will be important to be mindful of their projected ownership.
Picture: Jaylen Warren, Steelers offense
Photo Credit: Imagn
