After an entertaining day of football Saturday, we have two more playoff games to choose from Sunday. That includes the marquee matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Ravens are currently listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 51.5.
This matchup features possibly the two best teams in the league and the two MVP frontrunners. They did meet once this season back in Baltimore, with the Ravens cruising to a comfortable win.
Can they do it again in Buffalo, or will the Bills get some revenge? Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Ravens-Bills.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks
Lamar Jackson appears headed to the third MVP award of his career. He was the first-team All-Pro quarterback this season, and he turned in the best season of his already amazing career. He was absolutely lethal as a passer, racking up 41 touchdown passes to just four interceptions while leading the league with 10.15 adjusted yards per attempt. Of course, Jackson also provided his usual brilliance as a runner, averaging 53.8 yards per game on a league-best 6.6 yards per attempt.
Unsurprisingly, all that production led to some massive fantasy results. He averaged more than 25.5 fantasy points per game this season, putting him three points clear of the No. 2 option. He’s also been remarkably consistent, posting a positive Plus/Minus in 15 of his past 16 games.
The only black mark on Jackson’s resume is his poor production during the postseason. He has struggled to maintain his elite production during the playoffs, and he’s failed to come up with the big wins in big situations. That has been most apparent when matched up with Patrick Mahomes.
Jackson did start this year’s postseason run with a strong showing vs. the Steelers in the Wild Card round. He racked up 23.1 DraftKings points despite throwing just 21 passes. It was one of his most active games of the year as a runner, turning 15 carries into 81 yards.
The matchup vs. the Bills stands out as good but not great. They were middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.7.
Ultimately, Jackson is quite possibly the best player in all of fantasy, so it’s no surprise that he fares well in our projections. He’s No. 1 on this slate in projected ceiling, and he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.
Josh Allen is the other stud QB in this matchup, and he was considered the MVP favorite for most of the year. His counting stats aren’t quite as impressive as Jackson’s, but he posted a superior record for the Bills and had less supporting talent to work with. He also still did plenty of damage, averaging more than 22.5 fantasy points per game.
While Jackson might be the most consistently dominant quarterback in fantasy, Allen’s ceiling is a bit higher. He’s had more than 44 DraftKings points in two of his past five outings, including one of the highest-scoring performances in fantasy history. He racked up 342 passing yards, 82 rushing yards, and six total touchdowns in a loss to the Rams, resulting in 54.88 DraftKings points.
Like Jackson, Allen has also struggled to get past Mahomes in the playoffs. However, he started his postseason with a bang in the Wild Card round. He was outstanding vs. the Broncos in the first round, totaling 272 passing yards with two scores while adding 46 yards on the ground.
Allen will take the field as an underdog Sunday, which is not something we see very often. He’s been a dog in just 17 games since the start of the 2020 season, but he’s been an absolute monster in those contests. He’s averaged just under 29 DraftKings points per game, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.90 (per the Trends tool). That’s probably what it’s going to take to get past the Ravens on Sunday; he’s going to have to put on the Superman cape and carry this team across the finish line.
However, the matchup is significantly tougher for Allen than it is for Jackson. Baltimore’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds over the second half of the year, and they’re No. 2 in pass defense EPA since Week 10. It gives Allen an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.2, and only the defenses have worse marks on this slate. The Ravens also limited Allen to one of his worst games of the year in their first meeting this season, finishing with just 8.3 DraftKings points.
Still, Allen’s upside is immense, and he leads all players in terms of median projection and projected Plus/Minus. While the Ravens have a few different players who are capable of carrying the load, Buffalo’s prospects lie squarely on Allen’s shoulders.
Speaking of other options for the Ravens, Derrick Henry has been an absolute game-changer alongside Jackson in their backfield. He racked up more than 1,900 rushing yards during the regular season, averaging a stout 5.9 yards per attempt. He also added 18 touchdowns, and if not for Saquon Barkley’s historic season, he’d be getting more attention for Offensive Player of the Year.
Henry is also on a heater at the moment. He’s gone for at least 23.9 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s had at least 33.1 in two straight. He absolutely torched the Steelers in the Wild Card round, finishing with 26 carries, 186 yards, and two touchdowns.
Still, Henry’s projections pale in comparison to the two quarterbacks, which diminishes his value at a similar price point. However, he should command the least ownership in this tier. The toughest factor with using Henry is building a lineup around him. He correlates poorly with most of his teammates, including a -0.12 correlation with Jackson, so he’s a tough player to stack.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
James Cook is the Bills’ top running back, and his ceiling is ultimately pretty similar to Henry’s in the right circumstances. He’s had four games with at least 28.5 DraftKings points this season, and he had eight weekly finishes as a top-10 PPR running back during the regular season. He followed that up with a strong showing vs. the Broncos last week, racking up 21.0 DraftKings points on 120 yards and a touchdown.
However, a matchup vs. the Ravens is definitely not “the right circumstances.” While their defense has improved massively against the pass of late, they’ve been elite against the run basically all season. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs, and with the Bills listed as underdogs in this matchup, it’s hard to envision Cook having a ceiling performance. Overall, he stands out as overpriced in our NFL Models.
The Bills may not have the best group of receivers, but they are deep. They have a bunch of different players who see snaps at the position, but no true alpha.
Khalil Shakir is the closest they’ve got to a No. 1 option. He’s seen a 23% target share for the year, and he was at 24% in their first playoff outing. However, most of Shakir’s targets come near the line of scrimmage, which does keep his ceiling in check. He also has just four touchdowns for the year, so he doesn’t bring a ton of big plays to the table.
Shakir’s price tag has come down slightly from his peak, but he stands out as a low-risk, low-reward type of option Sunday. The good news is that he does correlate extremely well with Allen (+0.57), making him an excellent stacking partner.
Rashod Bateman is expected to serve as the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver once again this week, with Zay Flowers currently listed as doubtful. Bateman did manage to find the end zone vs. the Steelers, but it was otherwise a pretty quiet day for him. He had just two targets overall, giving him an 11% target share for the week.
That stands out as a bit of an outlier. Bateman had a 15% target share for the year, and that was with Flowers soaking up 26% of the team’s targets. With Flowers out of the picture, Bateman should see an increase in opportunities, not a decrease.
Bateman is a viable target across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Mark Andrews is probably the team’s de facto No. 1 pass catcher with Flowers sidelined. His volume has been inconsistent for most of the year, but he’s made up for it with plenty of touchdowns down the stretch. He failed to find the end zone vs. the Steelers, but he scored 11 touchdowns in his final 12 regular-season outings.
Andrews was also on the field a bit more than usual in his first playoff contest. His route participation was up to 77%, which represents a moderate increase from his 66% mark for the year. He didn’t see a huge spike in targets, but the opportunities are there for Andrews to make a bigger impact moving forward. He’s a clear buy at his current salary.
Isaiah Likely rounds out the Ravens’ core group of pass catchers. The team utilized a ton of two-TE sets last week, with Likely posting a route participation of 73%. He was targeted more frequently than Andrews vs. the Steelers with a 21% target share, and his role should be solidified with Flowers out of the lineup.
Amari Cooper was acquired by the Bills before the trade deadline, but he has been unable to make a huge impact with his new team. He’s posted a 50% route participation and 13% target share since joining the Bills, and he was below both of those figures in his first playoff contest.
That said, Cooper fits the prototype of the kind of receiver that the Ravens have struggled with. George Pickens made some big plays downfield against the Ravens last week, and Cooper seems like the most logical fit to fill that role for Buffalo. He doesn’t grade out particularly well in our models, but he could have some hidden upside this week.
Dalton Kincaid has not taken the leap forward that many were expecting this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one game all season, and he managed just three targets last week vs. the Broncos. It’s possible the Bills have to throw the ball a bit more this week, but it’s still hard to get too excited about Kincaid.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers stand out as more undervalued than the defenses in Sim Labs, with Tyler Bass and Justin Tucker both checking in with higher optimal lineup rates than projected ownerships.
- Justice Hill ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Hill has been an undervalued part of the Ravens’ offense for most of the year, and he caught all four of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s a sneaky stacking partner with Jackson, and he has some standalone value as well.
- Ty Johnson ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Johnson fills a similar role to Hill for the Bills, playing in most passing situations. He’s also a bit more involved as a runner, especially if Ray Davis (concussion) is unable to return to the lineup vs. Baltimore.
- Keon Coleman ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Coleman missed a solid chunk of his rookie season, but he has a 16% target share for the year. However, his numbers weren’t nearly as impressive in his first postseason outing, posting just a 50% route participation and 12% target share.
- Mack Hollins ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Hollins sees the field more than you might realize, but he’s out there primarily for blocking purposes. He has just a 10% target share for the year, and he was at 8% last week.
- Dawson Knox ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Knox is yet another option to throw into the mess that is the Bills passing attack. He had three targets last week and ran a route on 47% of their dropbacks. However, he has just a 7% target share for the year.
- Curtis Samuel ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Samuel is way down the pecking order at receiver for the Bills, but he came seemingly out of nowhere to post three catches, 68 yards, and a touchdown last week. He’s another potential downfield threat, giving him some upside in this matchup.
- Nelson Agholor ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Agholor is the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver on paper at the moment, but that role didn’t provide much value last week. He was on the field for less than 40% of the team’s pass plays, and he earned just one target.
- Ray Davis ($1,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Davis is the No. 3 option in the Bills’ backfield, and he’s currently questionable to suit up. The best-case scenario for fantasy purposes is Davis getting ruled out, which would solidify Johnson’s status as a sleeper.
- Tylan Wallace ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Wallace was on the field for more pass plays than Agholor last week, so he’s the Ravens receiver to target in this price range.