We had a banger of a Sunday Night Football contest in Week 1, with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Josh Allen ultimately putting on a show. Monday’s contest probably won’t be that exciting, but it should still be a good one. The Vikings are listed as 1.5-point road favorites in a divisional showdown vs. the Bears, while the total sits at 43.5 points. Both of these teams have playoff aspirations in 2025, and this matchup could be a deciding factor.
Let’s dive into all of the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
While this game has some intriguing pieces, there’s only one true stud: Justin Jefferson. He’s one of the best receivers in the league, maybe even the best overall. Ja’Marr Chase would likely have something to say about that, but there isn’t a single thing that Jefferson can’t do at the position.
He’s put up some massive numbers to start his career. He has 7,432 yards through his first five seasons, which shattered the previous record. Torry Holt had been the gold standard in that department, yet he was at just 6,784.
Jefferson was forced to undergo a quarterback change heading into last season. The dependable Kirk Cousins was gone, and Sam Darnold was taking over in his place. Darnold had been a bust for his entire career up to that point, so it was a major question mark how he’d impact Jefferson’s numbers.
Turns out, Jefferson did just fine. His yardage numbers were down – he dipped from at least 106.4 yards per game in the previous two seasons to just 90.2 last year – but he was still second only to Chase in that department. He also made up for it with 10 touchdowns, which tied his previous career high. Overall, he finished as WR4 in terms of PPR points per game.
That bodes well for how Jefferson will adjust to another QB change this season. Darnold is now in Seattle, and J.J. McCarthy will be taking his place. While that could end up being a downgrade, McCarthy was an early first-round pick, and he’ll have the benefit of playing for offensive guru Kevin O’Connell. Given how well Cousins and Darnold have performed in this system, McCarthy will likely be able to hold his own. At a minimum, he should at least be able to get the ball to Jefferson at a high frequency.
Jefferson could be a bit busier than usual to start the year. Jordan Addison, his typical running mate at receiver, will miss the first three games of the season while serving a suspension. Jefferson didn’t see a huge spike in opportunities in two games without Addison last season, but he still averaged five catches, 107 receiving yards, and a score in those outings.
Unfortunately, Jefferson is going to have to navigate a brutal Week 1 matchup. The Bears employ one of the best corners in football in Jaylon Johnson, and they were 10th in pass defense EPA last season. They did as good a job as anyone against Jefferson last year, limiting him to nine catches for 100 yards in their two meetings combined.
The good news is that Johnson isn’t at 100%. He’s currently dealing with calf and groin injuries, and he’s listed as questionable on the injury report. All signs point to him being in the lineup, but there’s no guarantee he’s as effective as usual. Stopping Jefferson isn’t easy to begin with, and doing so while banged up may not be possible.
Ultimately, Jefferson has the top median projection in our NFL models, and he has the top ceiling projection among the non-quarterbacks. He’s also not expected to be super chalky, boasting just the fourth-highest ownership projection on the slate.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Bears made a big splash this offseason by getting Ben Johnson to take over as head coach. He established himself as one of the best offensive minds in football during his time in Detroit, and now he’ll be tasked with turning around the Bears.
Johnson has plenty of talent at his disposal, including a bona fide No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore. Moore is coming off a down season in 2024, but he put up career highs in yards (1,336) and touchdowns (eight) in his first year in Chicago. Before that, he had at least 1,157 receiving yards in three of his final four seasons with the Panthers.
Volume wasn’t really an issue for Moore last year. He was tied for the team lead with a 28% target share, and he garnered more targets than he did the previous year. Keenan Allen was tied with Moore with a 28% target share last season, and he’s now playing in Los Angeles.
Ultimately, Moore could see an even larger workload than he did last year, and with Johnson now pulling the strings, those targets could be more fruitful.
Moore’s matchup in Week 1 is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the Vikings were really good defensively last season, ranking second in pass defense EPA. On the other hand, opposing teams were forced to throw a lot against Minnesota last season, and they ultimately allowed the most PPR points per game to the position. Moore posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests vs. the Vikings in 2024, including a game with 29.9 DraftKings points.
How good a season Moore can put together will ultimately come down to his quarterback. Caleb Williams’ rookie campaign will go down as a slight disappointment. He entered the league with big expectations, yet he was merely average. He took a ridiculous 68 sacks, while he averaged just 208.3 passing yards per game.
That said, Williams still has plenty of raw talent, and no one had a bigger upgrade at coach this offseason. It’s impossible to understate how significant a transformation it is from Matt Eberflus to Johnson.
Williams also had some stark home/road splits as a rookie, and he’ll be on the right side of them in Week 1. He averaged 17.96 DraftKings points in Chicago last season, but that figure dipped to 14.48 on the road (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, Williams’ arrow is clearly pointing up. Facing the Vikings isn’t easy, but Williams has the top ceiling projection on the slate.
McCarthy was selected in the same draft as Williams, but he missed his entire rookie season with an injury. He’ll make his NFL debut on Monday, and after the Vikings won 14 games last year, all eyes will be on him.
That puts a ton of pressure on him in his first career outing, and it’s not an easy set of circumstances. He owns a -3.9 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Bears, which is the worst mark on the entire slate. They allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season, and this game will be played in Chicago in primetime.
While there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on McCarthy overall – O’Connell and Jefferson being two of the biggest – there’s no guarantee he succeeds in Week 1. QBs tend to struggle right out of the gates, and McCarthy and this will essentially be McCarthy’s rookie season.
Expect the Vikings’ coaching staff to try to make his life as easy as possible on Monday night. His projections ultimately look pretty similar to Williams’ in our NFL Models, but I would argue that his ceiling is significantly lower. Quarterbacks always have some appeal in the single-game format, but McCarthy is far from an elite option.
One of the biggest stories to watch in this matchup is how the backfields shake out for both squads. D’Andre Swift appears to have the longest leash. The Bears added minimal competition for touches this offseason, despite being heavily linked to Ashton Jeanty before the NFL Draft. They ultimately didn’t add a running back until the seventh round, so Swift seems like the unquestioned starter to start the year.
However, Swift is going to have to be better than he was last season to keep his hold. He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt last season, though he did have one of his best years as a pass-catcher.
The lack of success in the running game wasn’t entirely Swift’s fault. He averaged just 2.0 yards before contact last season, which was tied for 68th among all runners. Among players with at least 100 carries, it was tied for the 15th-worst mark in the league.
The Bears invested in their offensive line this offseason, bringing in two new guards and a new center. If they can improve upon Swift’s blocking, he could put together a much better season. He averaged 4.6 yards per attempt over his previous four seasons, so there are reasons to believe in a bounce back.
Things aren’t quite as settled in the Vikings’ backfield. The team brought in Jordan Mason this offseason to complement Aaron Jones, and the two players could be looking at a nearly 50/50 split. Mason is expected to handle most of the short-yardage opportunities, with Jones serving as the pass-catching specialist.
Which back you should target depends entirely on where you’re playing. Jones stands out as the clear option of the two on DraftKings, where his salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating. His pass-catching ability also plays much better on DraftKings, given the full PPR scoring. Mason is one of the best overall values on FanDuel, where he owns a 98% Bargain Rating.
Rome Odunze is another second-year player with big expectations for the Bears this season. He was decent as a rookie, and he should step into a bigger role with Allen now departed.
Last year, Odunze was the team’s clear big-play threat. He had a 33% air yards share, and his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was 14.2 yards. That was the largest mark on the team by a wide margin, nearly doubling that of Moore (7.3).
If Odunze can maintain his big-play potential while adding a few additional targets, he has the potential for a breakout campaign. There’s no guarantee that will happen in 2025, but there are at least reasons for optimism.
Two tight ends round out this price range. T.J. Hockenson will serve as the Vikings’ top tight end this season, and he has historically been one of the best pass-catchers at the position. He missed a large chunk of last season while recovering from injury, but he was a solid part of the offense when he returned. He posted an 18% target share, and he was targeted on 19% of his routes run.
With Hockenson now fully healthy, he should see an uptick in snaps and opportunities in 2025. That’s particularly true at the start of the year with Addison out of the picture. Add in the fact that rookie QBs love to check it down to their tight ends, and Hockenson stands out as a strong option on this slate.
Coleston Loveland is significantly riskier. The Bears invested big draft capital to acquire him, but it remains to be seen how much work he’ll get as a rookie. Chicago quietly has a ton of pass-catchers, including another highly-drafted tight end in Cole Kmet.
While Loveland is an excellent talent, it’s probably best to wait and see how things play out. If you are going to target him, you’re much better off doing so on FanDuel.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Bears Defense leads the way in projected Plus/Minus, while the kickers have the highest optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs.
- Luther Burden ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Burden is yet another rookie for the Bears, though his role is even shakier than Loveland’s to start the year. He’s not even guaranteed to be on the field in three-WR sets, so he’s not going to have a ton of opportunities to make an impact. However, he did blaze a 4.41 40-yard dash at the combine, so he has some big-play potential.
- Adam Thielen ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) – Thielen has a chance to be the Vikings’ WR2 on Monday. He was acquired after the preseason finale, so he’ll have to get up to speed relatively quickly. However, Thielen is a veteran who has played in this system in the past, so that shouldn’t be a huge issue. He’s overpriced on FanDuel, but he’s a solid option at $4,400 on DraftKings.
- Cole Kmet ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Kmet will likely lose some responsibilities to Loveland as the season progresses, but he’s going to be in the mix to start the year. He has some pass-catching chops, and the Bears could utilize a solid amount of two-TE looks. Kmet also had the top correlation with Williams last season (+0.68), making him an interesting stacking partner.
- Jalen Nailor ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Nailor had some upside as the Vikings’ WR3 last season, including catching a career-best six touchdowns. He had four games with double-digit fantasy points, despite a pedestrian 9% target share overall. He’s an interesting pivot in lineups where you’re fading Thielen.
- Roschon Johnson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Johnson is questionable for the Bears, and even if he suits up, he doesn’t have a ton of appeal. He’s likely going to have to split the backup RB touches, and he doesn’t bring any pass-catching upside to the table.
- Kyle Monangai ($2,800 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Monangai is the other Bears’ backup RB, and it’s possible he takes on a bigger role as the season progresses. If Swift falters at all during the year, he could be the guy who gets the biggest bump. That said, he’s probably not going to be too involved in Week 1.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Zaccheaus could very well be ahead of Burden on the depth chart at the moment. He saw plenty of opportunities with the starters in the preseason, and he caught a touchdown pass from Williams. That makes him a very interesting punt play.
- Josh Oliver ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Oliver was the Vikings’ starting tight end when Hockenson was out last year, and he maintained a 5% target share when Hockenson eventually came back. That’s not much, but it’s something.
- Tai Felton ($800 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Another potential option in the Vikings’ passing attack.
Pictured: Justin Jefferson
Photo Credit: Imagn
