Sunday produced another fantastic day of playoff football. The first two games went right down to the wire before the Patriots and Chargers provided a bit of a snoozer in the nightcap. The action will hopefully pick back up on Monday night with a matchup between the Texans and Steelers. Houston is listed as a three-point road favorite, while the total sits at 38.5 points.
The Texans enter the playoffs on a nine-game win streak, and they’ve ridden one of the best defenses in football all season. Their offense is more of a question mark, but C.J. Stroud has won a playoff game in each of his first two professional seasons.
The Steelers managed to sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season, thanks in part to a missed field goal by Tyler Loop. It hasn’t always been pretty for Pittsburgh this season, but they officially secured a non-losing record for the 19th straight season under Mike Tomlin. They’re small underdogs on paper, but Tomlin has a knack for leading his team to wins in games that they shouldn’t.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There are only two stud options to choose from on this slate, and they both play for the Texans. The first is stud pass-catcher Nico Collins. Collins emerged as one of the top receivers in football last season, though he did take a slight step back in 2025-26. He was 10th at the position in PPR points per game, averaging 4.7 receptions and 74.5 yards while scoring seven total touchdowns.
Collins was the Texans’ clear top option in the passing attack when available this season. He posted a 25% target share, 37% air yards share, and 33% end zone share. His target share was at 27% or higher in three of his final five regular-season contests, so he could see an even larger workload vs. the Steelers.
The matchup is a good one for fantasy purposes. The Steelers have allowed plenty of production through the air all season, including the seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.
Collins’ projections are a bit underwhelming for a “stud” receiver, but he still ranks second on the slate from a median and ceiling standpoint. He has the top optimal lineup rate in the Captain slot in Sim Labs, and he’s No. 2 in the Flex spot. Collins should be one of the most popular targets on this slate, but few players can match his upside.
Collins’ quarterback is the other stud option to choose from. As good as the matchup is for Collins, it’s even better for Stroud. The Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and Stroud leads the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus.
Unfortunately, Stroud just hasn’t been a particularly good fantasy producer this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just five of 14 games, and he’s had more than 17.26 DraftKings points in just one of his past seven outings.
The good news is that Stroud has at least shown some upside in his best matchups this season. Stroud faced five teams that finished in the bottom 14 in terms of fantasy points allowed this season, and he fared well in those contests:
- Week 2 vs. Buccaneers – 14.98 DraftKings points
- Week 4 vs. Titans – 18.42 DraftKings points
- Week 5 at Ravens – 28.76 DraftKings points
- Week 8 vs. 49ers – 25.72 DraftKings points
- Week 15 vs. Cardinals – 23.4 DraftKings points
Overall, he averaged 22.26 DraftKings points per game in that split, with the Week 2 matchup vs. the Buccaneers the only true clunker. Hopefully, he can perform up to that level against the Steelers.
Ultimately, Stroud has the top projections across the board in our NFL Models. He’s No. 1 in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus. Pairing him with Collins will be a popular strategy, but it’s not necessarily required. The two have a correlation of just +0.15, so one can find success without the other.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Aaron Rodgers is the other QB in this matchup, and he certainly has no shortage of experience in the playoffs. This will be his 23rd career playoff game and his 13th career trip to the postseason. However, it will be his first time not wearing a Packers uniform.
Rodgers is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime. No full-time starter at quarterback in football got rid of the ball quicker than Rodgers this season, and he averaged the fewest air yards per attempt. He’s a far cry from the guy who routinely pushed the ball down the field in Green Bay.
As a result, his fantasy production left a lot to be desired. He was merely QB28 in terms of fantasy points per game, and he cracked 20 fantasy points on just three occasions.
Rodgers did end the year on a strong note, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his final five outings. However, the Texans will represent one of his toughest tests of the entire season. They’re first in the league in pass defense EPA, and they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Rodgers’ projections make him tough to trust at his current price tag. However, quarterbacks will always have some appeal in the single-game format. He ranks third on the slate in ceiling projection, and there’s a pretty large drop-off from him to the next guy.
One positive for Rodgers is that DK Metcalf will be back in the lineup. Metcalf missed the final two games of the regular season due to a suspension, and the Steelers’ offense looked pretty lifeless without him.
Metcalf hasn’t been a true alpha for the Steelers this season, but he’s been pretty close. He’s posted a 23% target share, 42% air yards share, and 38% end zone share. His production was volatile, but he was their only receiver capable of putting together a big game. He had nine games with double-digit DraftKings points this season, including three with at least 19.5.
Unfortunately, the matchup is even tougher for Metcalf than it is for Rodgers. The Texans were tied for second-fewest PPR points per game allowed to receivers, and they possess one of the best secondaries in football. Metcalf is a physical freak – he can win downfield against anyone – but he has less upside than usual.
The Steelers’ running backs might be their most appealing fantasy targets. Houston isn’t quite as elite against the run, ranking as the ninth-best squad in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs.
The Steelers employ a committee at running back, and both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are capable of providing value in different ways. Warren is the team’s primary ball carrier. He had 60% of the team’s designed rushing attempts this season, including 58% of the opportunities from inside the five-yard line. Warren can also catch the ball when asked to, posting a 9% target share for the year.
While Gainwell doesn’t get as many carries most weeks, his skill set is more desirable for fantasy purposes. He’s quietly been one of the best pass-catching backs in football this season. He posted a 19% target share for the year, which was the fifth-best mark at the position. Gainwell had at least seven targets in four of his final five games, including an eight-catch performance in a de facto playoff game vs. the Ravens last week.
Gainwell is also a threat to score around the goal line. While Warren has had the slight edge in goal-line carries, Gainwell still has a 33% share from inside the five-yard line this season. He had a Wild Cat snap in that scenario last week, which he converted into a touchdown.
While Gainwell could lose a few pass-catching opportunities with Metcalf back in the fold, he still stands out as one of the Steelers’ top options in this matchup. He has better projections than Warren at a slightly cheaper price tag, giving him the clear edge in projected Plus/Minus. He also stands out as the most undervalued Captain option in Sim Labs, with no player possessing a larger gap between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate.
Woody Marks has emerged as the Texans’ clear-cut RB1 over the second half of the year. From Week 10 on, he had at least 58% of the team’s carries in six of his final eight games. The lone exceptions were in Week 15, when he exited with an injury, and in a somewhat meaningless game in Week 18.
Marks should see the majority of the touches in the backfield on Monday night, though the matchup isn’t great. The Steelers have been much better against the run than the pass this season, giving Marks an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.9.
Still, he stands out as slightly underpriced at $8,200. He has the best Plus/Minus projection in this tier, and he has the fourth-highest ceiling projection overall.
Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz round out the Texans’ passing corps in this price range. Higgins has emerged as the team’s No. 2 receiver down the stretch, and he caught a touchdown in each of their final two games. However, he stands out as pretty massively overpriced across the industry. Higgins has thrived on efficiency more than volume, and without the benefit of a touchdown, he has a pretty low floor. In the three games before his two-game touchdown streak, he posted 2.7, 1.4, and 6.4 PPR points. Higgins ultimately has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus among the primary options on this slate.
Schultz is much more appealing. His workload has been more consistent throughout the year, with a 19% target share overall. He finished with double-digit DraftKings points in four of his final six games, and he should be able to take advantage of the friendly matchup. The Steelers have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, making Schultz one of the best values of the day. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his 90% Bargain Rating is the top mark on the slate.
Pat Freiermuth wraps up this tier for the Steelers. He’s been inconsistent for most of the year, with the Steelers using three different players at tight end. However, he has clearly seen a boost following the injury to Darnell Washington. His route participation jumped to at least 74% in the team’s final two games.
Freiermuth didn’t see a huge spike in targets in those contests, but he did post a 13% target share over his final four games. That represents a slight increase compared to his 10% mark for the year. He’s ultimately a pretty reasonable option at $5,000.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Steelers Defense owns the top projected Plus/Minus of the group in our NFL Models, while the Texans Defense stands out as the most undervalued in Sim Labs. Regardless, the defenses have more appeal than usual on a slate with just a 38.5-point total.
- Adam Thielen ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Thielen was a late addition for the Steelers, suiting up for the first time in Week 14. He was minimally involved in his first three contests with the squad before seeing a big spike in the two games without Metcalf. Now that the team is at full strength at receiver, he should go back into a reserve role.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Smith hasn’t seen nearly the same bump in opportunities as Freiermuth following the injury to Washington. His route participation has stayed in the low 30% range over the past two weeks, though he did manage a 15% target share two weeks ago.
- Calvin Austin ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) – Austin returned from a brief one-game absence in Week 18 and turned in arguably their biggest play of the year. He scored the game-winning touchdown vs. the Ravens, and he posted a 16% target share overall. He had fallen out of favor before getting injured, but he’s clearly one of the team’s most dangerous pass-catchers.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Like Theilen and Austin, Valdes-Scantling is a bit of a wild card in this matchup. He could see a bunch of opportunities, or he could fade into obscurity. However, he does have tons of previous chemistry established with Rodgers, which should keep him in the mix.
- Nick Chubb ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Chubb started the year as the Texans’ starting running back, but he might not even be the backup at this point. He’s not particularly relevant.
- Jaylin Noel ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Noel has dipped down the pecking order at receiver as the year has progressed. He had just a 19% target share over the Texans’ final four outings, which is merely fifth at receiver for the squad.
- Christian Kirk ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Kirk stands out as the preferred value pass-catcher for Houston, especially on DraftKings. His $2,600 salary comes with a massive discount compared to his FanDuel price tag, and he’s maintained a role in the passing attack all year. He’s posted a 12% target share for the season, and he’s been at 15% or higher in two of his past three games.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Hutchinson was the team’s top option at the position in Week 18, and he’s on the field more than his price tag suggests.
- Cade Stover ($600 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Stover could be an interesting punt play at $600 on DraftKings. Tight ends are always a threat to score a touchdown around the goal line.
- Dare Ogunbowale ($400 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Ogunbowale is the Texans’ pass-catching specialist at running back. He’s played on most of the long-down-and-distance snaps down the stretch, though that hasn’t necessarily led to a ton of targets. He has more appeal in lineups where you’re building around the Texans playing from behind.
Pictured: Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud
Photo Credit: Getty Images
