NFL Week 10 features a Sunday Night Football contest with potential playoff implications. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 44.5 points.
The Steelers are currently sitting at 5-3, which gives them a two-game lead in the AFC North. However, the Ravens have gotten significantly healthier of late, and those teams still have two head-to-head matchups on the schedule. Baltimore could very easily end the season as one of the best teams in football, so Pittsburgh needs to gobble up as many wins as possible in its remaining contests.
The Chargers are also locked in a tight division race. They’re currently 1.5 games behind the Broncos and 1.0 games up on the Chiefs, and it’s possible that one of those three teams doesn’t make the playoffs. ESPN puts the Chargers’ postseason odds at roughly 75%, but if the Ravens make a run, it could leave one of the AFC West squads on the outside looking in.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This contest only features one player priced in the stud tier: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert has had a bit of an odd year. His efficiency is slightly down compared to last season – his adjusted yards per attempt are down from 8.32 to 7.35 – but his overall volume is way up. The Chargers were one of the most run-heavy teams in football to start last season, and they were a balanced offense near the end. This season, they’ve gone much more pass-heavy than expected. They’re currently second in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, trailing only the Chiefs in that metric.
As a result, Herbert’s fantasy numbers are way up. He’s tied for fourth at the position in fantasy points per game, trailing only the “big three” of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. He’s racked up 18 passing TDs through his first nine games, while he’s averaging nearly 40 additional yards per game compared to last season.
Herbert has been at his best of late. He’s turned in three straight big performances, finishing with 28.7 DraftKings points vs. the Titans, 26.28 vs. the Vikings, and 32.9 vs. the Colts. He’s finished as a top-four scorer at the position in each of those weeks.
Herbert should be able to keep the production rolling vs. the Steelers. Their defense has shown some signs of life recently, but they’ve still been a great matchup for QBs for most of the year. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Herbert leads the slate with a +5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Ultimately, no one on this slate can match Herbert from a projection standpoint. He leads all players in median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projections, and it’s not particularly close. His optimal lineup rate is north of 80% in Sim Labs at the FLEX spot, and it’s an additional 7.5% at Captain.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Aaron Rodgers is the other QB in this contest, and he’s clearly not the same player that he was in his prime. He’s simply looking to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible at this point. No QB has averaged fewer intended air yards per attempt, and he’s tied with Tua Tagovailoa for the quickest average time to throw. In other words, Rodgers has become a bit of a checkdown artist.
That style of play isn’t particularly appealing for fantasy purposes. Rodgers has eclipsed 17.5 DraftKings points in just two of eight outings this season, and they’ve come in two of the friendliest possible matchups (Jets and Bengals). This week’s matchup vs. the Chargers is far from friendly. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, and they’re seventh in pass defense EPA overall.
Quarterbacks are always going to have some appeal in the single-game format, but Rodgers has much less upside than the typical QB.
Ladd McConkey started the year slowly for the Chargers, but he’s turned things on of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, with last week’s contest vs. the Titans the lone exception. He’s posted a team-high 26% target share during that stretch, while he’s racked up the fifth-most PPR points at the position.
It’s a great matchup for McConkey to keep his hot streak going. The Steelers have allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, making McConkey one of the strongest Captain choices on the slate. He has the second-highest optimal rate in that slot, and his optimal rate is higher than his projected ownership.
The Chargers suddenly have an embarrassment of riches in terms of pass catchers. In addition to McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Oronde Gadsden have all popped for big games.
Allen is second to McConkey from a pricing standpoint, and he’s been the team’s top target earner for the year. However, his role in the offense could be shrinking slightly. He’s garnered just five targets in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six. He stands out as the least appealing of the group on DraftKings, though he does get a slight bump on FanDuel given his 94% Bargain Rating.
Johnston is the team’s big-play threat at receiver. His Average Depth of Target (aDOT) checks in at 12.6 yards, which is better than McConkey and Allen by at least 3.3 yards apiece. He had a rare zero-catch performance two weeks ago, but he bounced back with six targets, four grabs, and a touchdown last week vs. the Titans. He has the lowest ownership projection among the Chargers’ WR trio, but he might have the best ceiling of the bunch.
Gadsden is the team’s starting TE, and he has really come on in recent weeks. He missed the team’s first two games this season, but his role has steadily grown since then. He’s posted an 82% route participation and 20% target share over his past four outings, and he’s averaged a stout 17.9 PPR points per game during that stretch.
The Steelers have arguably been even worse against TEs than they have been vs. receivers this season. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position, and Gadsden ranks second on the slate with a +3.6 Opponent Plus/Minus.
That makes Gadsden the best target of the bunch. He trails only Herbert in projected Plus/Minus on this slate.
Jaylen Warren was briefly stuck in a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell, but he’s back to being the Steelers’ clear No. 1 running back. He’s handled 78% of the team’s rushing attempts over the past three outings, including 82% of the short-yardage opportunities. That includes all of the work from inside the five-yard line.
Warren’s short-yardage role led to two touchdowns last week vs. the Colts, and the best way to attack the Chargers’ defense is on the ground. They’re 18th in rush defense EPA, so Warren could be set up for a solid performance. He has the highest optimal lineup rate at the Captain spot in Sim Labs.
Kimani Vidal should handle most of the Chargers’ RB responsibilities. The team is still playing without Omarion Hampton, while Najee Harris is done for the year with an Achilles injury.
However, Vidal’s grip on the starting RB job could be loosening. He still played on 72% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, but he handled just 48% of the team’s carries. He was also significantly less efficient than Jaret Patterson. It’s possible that this is more of a committee moving forward, making Vidal a bit risky at his current price tag.
DK Metcalf has been the Steelers’ No. 1 receiver this season. That said, his skill set is not being fully utilized by Rodgers. He has five targets or fewer in four of his past six games, and he’s coming off a dismal 2.6 DraftKings points last week vs. the Colts.
Metcalf has essentially become a boom-or-bust player that needs a touchdown to potentially return value. The Chargers have been one of the toughest teams in football for WRs to score against this season, so his prospects don’t feel particularly strong.
Calvin Austin rounds out this price range, and he’s been the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver this season. He returned to the lineup following an injury absence in Week 8, and he’s posted an 18% target share in his two games back. He’s not a particularly exciting option, but he has the potential to pay off his current salary.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers have the best projections of the group in our NFL Models, and they also have superior optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs.
- Kenneth Gainwell ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – With Warren taking on most of the opportunities in the Steelers’ backfield, it hasn’t left a ton for Gainwell. He has just a 19% carry share over the past three weeks, though he has maintained a role in the passing game. He has a 9% target share over that stretch, so he could benefit if you think the Steelers play this game from behind.
- Pat Freiermuth ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – With Rodgers getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible, the Steelers TEs have provided solid value this season. Freiermuth has seen 14 total targets over his past three outings, and he’s scored three touchdowns in those contests. He has a +0.48 correlation with his QB, so they’re pretty natural stacking partners.
- Jonnu Smith ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Smith has been the Steelers’ No. 1 tight end from an opportunity standpoint. He leads the position group with a 15% target share for the year, and he’s had the top route participation as well. Those numbers have dwindled slightly in recent weeks, making him an interesting buy-low option.
- Darnell Washington ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Washington also gets in the mix at TE for the Steelers. He’s had a target share of at least 15% in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 8.3 DraftKings points in each of those contests. He has the lowest floor of the group, but he definitely still warrants consideration.
- Jaret Patterson ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Patterson has seen at least nine carries in back-to-back games, and he was far more productive than Vidal with his opportunities last week. It should shock no one if he’s earned a larger piece of the pie moving forward, at least until Hampton returns.
- Tre’ Harris ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – The Chargers have a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game, which hasn’t left a ton of opportunities for the second-round rookie. However, his role is slightly growing. He’s had multiple catches in four straight games, and he scored his first career touchdown two weeks ago.
- Roman Wilson ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Wilson erupted for 17.4 DraftKings points two weeks ago, but he slid back into obscurity last week. He’s on the field at a decent clip for the Steelers, but he’s way down the pecking order from a target standpoint.
Pictured: Jaylen Warren
Photo Credit: Barry Reeger, Imagn
