We’re down to the final slate of the NFL season. The Super Bowl is always a bit of a bittersweet contest. On one hand, it’s one of the best spectacles of the year, combining sports, betting, fantasy, and culture in a way that no other event does. On the other hand, it means we’ll have to wait nearly seven months before real NFL football is back in our lives.
This year, the Super Bowl will be contested in Santa Clara, California, between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. The Seahawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
These two teams were considered long shots to win the Super Bowl before the start of the year. However, the Seahawks rode an elite defense and a good enough offense to a historically good season by DVOA. The Patriots are a bit less battle-tested, playing one of the easiest schedules in football, but they have the reigning Coach of the Year and the runner-up for the NFL MVP. New England had to prevail in three previous playoff contests to get here – including a tough road game in Denver in the AFC Championship – while the Seahawks procured two wins against divisional rivals on the NFC side.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Super Bowl LX.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game is ultimately a bit light on star power. There’s only one non-QB priced in the stud tier, but it’s one of the best skill-position players in all of football. Jaxon Smith-Njigba took home the Offensive Player of the Year award for his work this season, and it’s hard to say he didn’t deserve it. He finished with 119 catches, 1,793 yards, and 10 touchdowns during the regular season, and he was second at receiver in PPR points per game.
The fact that Smith-Njigba was able to compile those numbers while playing for one of the lowest-volume passing offenses in football is extremely impressive. He made up for it by commanding a whopping 35% target share, the highest in the league. He was also extremely efficient with his looks, averaging 11.0 yards per target while leading all players with an average of 14.5 yards per touch.
Smith-Njigba wasn’t really needed in the team’s first playoff outing, but he put together a huge performance in the NFC Championship. He finished with 12 targets vs. an excellent Rams’ defense, and he responded with 153 yards and a touchdown.
JSN ultimately scored 34.3 DraftKings points in that contest, and he was an extremely consistent producer all season. He finished with more than 20 DraftKings points in 14 of his 19 outings, and he still managed at least 13.0 fantasy points in three of the exceptions. His two true clunkers this year were games where the team simply didn’t have to throw the ball very often. As long as he received his usual allotment of targets, there wasn’t much that opposing defenses could do to stop him.
Smith-Njigba’s matchup vs. the Patriots isn’t ideal, but it’s not quite as daunting as last week’s. The Rams were sixth in pass defense EPA during the regular season, while the Patriots are 10th. The Patriots have allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so while they’re above average, they’re far from unbeatable.
With how consistent JSN has been this season, it’s hard to view him as anything other than the best target in this matchup. He leads all players in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus, and he has the top optimal lineup rate at the Captain spot in SimLabs.
Drake Maye was the runner-up to Matthew Stafford in the closest MVP race in recent memory. It’s hard to say that he was shafted – Stafford had a deserving year in his own right – but it’s not a stretch to say that Maye was the best QB in football this season. He was first in the league in CPOE + EPA composite by a pretty sizable margin, and he led the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating, and QBR.
For fantasy purposes, Maye was tied for second at the position this season, trailing only Josh Allen. He checks every box that you’re looking for in a modern NFL QB, combining efficient passing with upside as a runner. Maye averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with four scores during the regular season, and that probably undersells his upside in that department. He’s used his legs a bit more during the playoffs, logging at least 65 rushing yards in two of his three starts.
However, there are a few things to consider with Maye on Sunday. The first is that he’s reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury. He has downplayed the issue throughout the week, but there’s no guarantee he’s at full strength vs. the Seahawks. He had some uncharacteristic missed throws in the AFC Championship, though it’s possible that it can be attributed to the weather more than an injury.
The other mitigating factor is the matchup. The Seahawks have been the best defensive team in football this season. However, the Seahawks have been more dominant against the run than the pass. They’ve also feasted on a string of easy opponents, and they’ve shown some cracks when they have faced elite QBs. Specifically, Stafford torched them in his three matchups, compiling more than 900 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
If Maye is anywhere close to 100%, it’s possible that he can put together a strong fantasy performance. He’s been a bit of a disappointment against good defenses in the playoffs – 15.94 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos, 17.16 vs. the Texans – but it’s possible that the Seahawks’ defense is a bit of a mirage.
Sam Darnold rounds out this price range, and he’s just $200 cheaper than Maye. Based on what these two QBs did during the regular season, that feels like a mistake. While Maye averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, Darnold was merely QB27 in that metric at 14.7. Darnold also entered the playoffs with a reputation for “choking in the big game,” so seeing him priced at $10,800 is a bit of a shock.
However, Darnold has all but erased that narrative. He was efficient when asked to pass in his first playoff outing, and he broke out in a big way in his second. He racked up 346 yards, three touchdowns, and zero picks vs. the Rams, resulting in 29.74 DraftKings points. It was his third-highest output of the entire season, and he did it on the biggest stage.
Unfortunately, Darnold will now have to leave Seattle for the first time this postseason. It is at least a stadium he is familiar with. He’s already played in Santa Clara once this season, and he spent a year as the 49ers’ backup QB. That should hopefully help ease some of the pressure.
The bigger concern is the matchup. The Patriots’ defense hit a skid in the middle of the year while dealing with some injuries, but they’ve been outstanding at full strength. It gives Darnold an Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.0, which is easily the worst mark on the slate.
It makes Darnold the odd man out of the stud trio (at least from a projections standpoint). You can certainly still look to stack him with JSN – the two players have a correlation of +0.60 – but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week’s performance.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Kenneth Walker just narrowly missed the stud tier at $9,800, and he’s taken over as the Seahawks’ clear-cut No. 1 running back following the injury to Zach Charbonnet. He’s had 19 carries in back-to-back games, and he had a 76% share of the rushing attempts in the NFC Championship. He also had a 12% target share after posting a 19% mark in the Divisional Round. While he’s not a true “bell-cow” back, he’s pretty darn close.
His pass-catching prowess will likely be needed this week. The Patriots have been absolutely elite against the run when they’ve had Milton Williams and Christian Barmore available this season, as both will be on Sunday. However, they have surrendered 5.8 targets per game to opposing running backs, which is the fifth-highest mark in the NFL.
Walker is also one of the most likely touchdown scorers in this contest. He’s found the paint four times through his first two playoff games, and he’s finished with at least 21.1 DraftKings points in both outings.
Ultimately, a performance similar to what he had last week vs. the Rams feels reasonable. Los Angeles was able to limit him to just 62 yards on his 19 carries, but he managed to salvage his fantasy stock with a score, four receptions, and 49 receiving yards. He trails only JSN and Maye in terms of median projection, while only JSN has a better projected Plus/Minus.
Like Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson has spent most of the year in a committee backfield. He split the workload pretty evenly with TreVeyon Henderson during the regular season, but Stevenson has taken over as their clear top option during the playoffs. The gap between the two was particularly stark last week. Stevenson played on 94% of the snaps and handled 76% of the designed rushing attempts, while Henderson was at 6% and 9%, respectively.
It’s possible that could just be a one-week outlier, but I’m willing to bet against it. Stevenson is the better pass-blocker of the two Patriots’ RBs, and with their offensive line struggling mightily, that’s enough to get him on the field.
Stevenson has had the clear edge in terms of passing downs and short-yardage opportunities all season, and while the Seahawks are a tough matchup, he has some upside in this spot. He stands out as the second-most undervalued Captain option in Sim Labs.
The largest gap between optimal Captain rate and projected ownership belongs to Stefon Diggs. That makes sense. Diggs has had a wide range of outcomes this season, and with his production lacking so far during the playoffs, he shouldn’t garner a ton of attention.
Still, Diggs remains the team’s No. 1 option in the passing game. He leads the team with a 21% target share for the year, and he’s capable of exceeding that figure by a wide margin in the right situations. He’s had five games with a target share of at least 30% so far this season, including last week vs. the Broncos.
Diggs managed 14.0 DraftKings points vs. the Texans’ elite pass defense two weeks ago, so he certainly has the potential to return value in this spot. If anyone in the Patriots’ passing attack goes off, he’s the most likely candidate.
The tight ends also stand out as interesting options on this slate. While both of these defenses have been excellent this season, they haven’t been quite as dominant against tight ends. The Seahawks have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to the position this season, while the Patriots are 13th.
Among the TEs, Hunter Henry has been the more consistent part of his team’s passing attack this season. He owns a 17% target share, and he went off for 15.4 DraftKings points in his first playoff contest this year. He’s struggled in the past two, but passing the ball in the second half of last week’s game was virtually impossible in the blizzard-like conditions. He’s a solid bounce-back target, particularly at just $7,600 on FanDuel.
Kayshon Boutte has been the Patriots’ big-play threat at receiver this season. We saw that vs. the Texans, finishing with three catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in the win. That included an Odell Beckham-like grab to put the game on ice:
Boutte followed that up with six targets in the AFC Championship, and he amassed 56% of the team’s air yards. While he wasn’t able to do much against Patrick Surtain and the weather, it gives him some upside at a pretty reasonable price tag. Before last week’s outing, he had double-digit PPR points in his first two playoff contests.
Cooper Kupp stands out as the Seahawks’ No. 2 receiver. That’s not a particularly high bar to clear, but he’s posted a respectable 19% target share from Week 10 on. He has 11 targets across his two playoff outings, and he’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in both contests. Kupp’s salary has crept up a bit, but he still stands out as a bit underpriced at $5,200.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The defenses stand out as slightly better values than the kickers in our NFL Models, and both are also showing up as under-owned in Sim Labs.
- A.J. Barner ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Barner has had a route participation above 75% during the playoffs, and he has a couple of different paths to relevance on this slate. He could do some damage as a receiver, posting a 14% target share and 17% end zone share for the year, and he could also find the paint as a runner. He’s taken over as the Seahawks’ “tush push” specialist, and he’s had one carry in three of his past four games.
- Rashid Shaheed ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Shaheed’s biggest impact for Seattle has come on special teams, where he’s already scored three times. However, he’s also a major deep ball threat on offense. He had just three targets last week, but he managed to secure one of them for 52 yards. He’s a potential stack candidate with either Darnold or the Seahawks Defense, since a big play from Shaheed has the potential to benefit both of those options.
- TreVeyon Henderson ($3,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) – It’s possible that Henderson is a non-factor on this slate, but it’s also possible he gets dusted off against the Seahawks defense. He’s fared well against the specific type of defense that the Seahawks specialize in, so even if he doesn’t get a ton of opportunities, it’s possible that he rips off a big run.
- Mack Hollins ($3,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) – Hollins is known for his run-blocking ability, which has been able to get him on the field for most of his NFL tenure. He also emerged as a real threat in the passing game down the stretch, posting a 22% target share from Weeks 10 through 16. Unfortunately, Hollins missed the next four games with an injury, but he was able to return in the AFC Championship game vs. the Broncos. He finished with just a 48% route participation and 10% target share in that contest, but it’s possible he takes on a larger role in his second game back.
- DeMario Douglas ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Douglas has not been on the field nearly as much this season as in previous years for the Patriots, but the team typically still tries to get the ball in his hands a few times per game. He managed to score a touchdown vs. the Texans, finishing with 11.6 DraftKings points.
- George Holani ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Holani served as the Seahawks’ No. 2 RB last week, and he was on the field for 35% of their offensive snaps. He’s more of a factor as a pass-catcher than a runner, which is ideal for fantasy purposes. He was targeted on 24% of his routes run vs. the Rams, good for a 12% target share overall. That’s enough to put him in play at a minimal price tag.
- Austin Hooper ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Hooper is the Patriots’ No. 2 TE, though he’s been a minimal piece of the offense all season. He’s had a route participation of just 21% in back-to-back games, and he failed to earn a single target vs. the Broncos. Still, TEs are always a threat around the goal line, and a cheap TD would likely be enough for Hooper to provide value.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Imagn
