And then there was one. We’re down to the final contest of the 2025-26 NFL regular season, and the stakes could not be higher. The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Baltimore Ravens, with the winner securing the AFC North crown and a spot in the playoffs. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.
It has been a tumultuous year for Baltimore, who have had stud quarterback Lamar Jackson available for only 12 games. Jackson has also been ineffective when he has been in the lineup, particularly over the second half of the year. The Ravens managed to pick up a huge win over the Packers last week with Jackson out of the lineup, and now a road win over the Steelers will get them back to the playoffs.
The Steelers seem to overperform their advanced metrics every year under head coach Mike Tomlin, and this year has been no exception. The team doesn’t stand out in any one particular area, and they’re 27th in the league in yardage differential. That said, they’ve still managed to win nine of their first 16 games, and they’ll avoid a losing season for the 22nd consecutive year. The team hasn’t found much playoff success in recent years, but they’ve ultimately been the model of consistency.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jackson is the most expensive player in this contest, and that’s warranted based on his track record. He’s historically been one of the best players in all of fantasy, and he’s coming off a monster campaign last season. He tossed 41 touchdowns to just four picks as a passer, and he averaged a career-best 245.4 yards per game. Jackson also chipped in his usual elite work as a rusher, resulting in a league-high 25.6 fantasy points per game.
Jackson started the year strong, posting at least 26.3 DraftKings points in each of his first three games before suffering an injury in Week 4 vs. the Chiefs. He then missed the team’s next three games, and he simply hasn’t been the same player since returning to the lineup. From Week 9 on, he’s averaged just 13.3 fantasy points per game. That ranks merely 29th at the quarterback position.
It makes Jackson a major wild card on this slate. We know what he’s capable of at 100%, but how healthy is he actually? It’s hard to imagine he’s anywhere close to full strength, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven starts.
The good news is that Jackson’s lone positive outing during that stretch came vs. the Steelers. He racked up 22.06 DraftKings points in that outing, and he looked more like himself as a runner. He had seven carries for 43 yards and a touchdown, despite the Steelers picking up the win.
The Steelers have been a solid matchup for quarterbacks all season. They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position, so it’s certainly possible that Jackson puts together another strong showing.
Still, it’s hard to get too excited about him at his current price tag. His median and ceiling projections are far lower than usual, although he still leads the slate in the latter. He also has a negative Plus/Minus projection, and he’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate.
With Jackson out of the lineup last week, the Ravens went old-school on offense. They simply turned around and handed the ball to Derrick Henry as much as humanly possible. The Big Dog racked up 36 carries, including 21 in the first half alone, and broke the spirit of the Packers defense. He finished with 216 yards and four touchdowns, good for a season-high 48.6 DraftKings points.
With the way Jackson has struggled of late, it makes sense for the team to lean on their star running back heavily once again. He probably won’t approach last week’s workload, but 20+ carries feels very reasonable in a game where the Ravens are favored.
Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t nearly as favorable for the Ravens’ rushing attack. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs despite ranking merely 25th in rush defense EPA. Most of their fantasy success comes from the fact that they’ve allowed just 0.3 rushing TDs per game to the position, which is tied for the best mark in the league.
Ultimately, Henry still has one of the highest ceilings on the slate, and he’s showing up with the top optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs. If the Ravens lean on him nearly as much as they did last week, he could be significantly undervalued.
Aaron Rodgers rounds out this price range, and he stands out as the worst option of the trio. Rodgers has managed to win some games for the Steelers, but he has provided very little for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just five of his 16 outings. He’s also displayed almost no ceiling, with just three games of more than 17.5 DraftKings points for the year.
Rodgers is coming off one of his worst performances of the season last week vs. the Browns. He was playing without top receiver DK Metcalf, and the passing attack looked helpless without him. Rodgers threw the ball 39 times, but he managed just 168 scoreless yards. He finished with just 7.32 DraftKings points, albeit against a solid Browns defense.
Rodgers did have 21.46 DraftKings points in his first meeting vs. the Ravens, but that was with Metcalf in the lineup. Metcalf had seven catches for 148 yards in that contest, and Rodgers targeted him a season-high 12 times. It’s hard to imagine him having the same level of success in the rematch with his best pass catcher in street clothes.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Zay Flowers has been an under-the-radar alpha receiver for the Ravens this season. He’s posted a 30% target share, which is tied for the sixth-best mark in the NFL.
The only problem is that the Ravens have had one of the least productive passing attacks in football. They’re 31st in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so Flowers has gotten a large share of a very small pie.
Flowers has also found the end zone just four times this season, though three of those have come in his past three games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in his previous three games with Jackson under center, including 23.6 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Steelers. Flowers didn’t find the end zone in that contest, but he notched a season-high 11 targets and responded with eight catches for 124 yards.
The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers this season, so Flowers has some upside in the rematch. It remains to be seen how often Jackson will drop back to pass, but when he does, expect the ball to go in Flowers’ direction more often than not.
With Metcalf out of action, the Steelers are going to have to lean on their RB duo of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Warren has had the clear edge in rushing attempts in this backfield for most of the season. That includes recent weeks, with Warren logging 56% and 57% of the carries in his past two outings.
However, Gainwell has had a clear edge in high-value touches. It starts with his work as a pass catcher. Gainwell has racked up a 16% target share for the year, which is the fifth-best mark at the RB position. It puts him behind only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who are four of the best RBs in fantasy.
Gainwell had just a 12% target share in his first game without Metcalf, but he was on the field for 68% of the team’s offensive snaps. That was his second-highest mark of the year, trailing only the Week 4 contest where Warren didn’t suit up. Gainwell could certainly get more involved as a pass-catcher this week if he sees another boost in snaps.
Gainwell has also had the edge in short-yardage opportunities in recent weeks. He’s had 65% of those snaps over the past four weeks, compared to just 35% for Warren. The Steelers haven’t had a carry from inside the five-yard line in two straight games, but Gainwell could be slated for those opportunities if they get there vs. the Ravens.
Add it all up, and Gainwell stands out as the clear back to target in Pittsburgh. His projections are significantly higher at a slightly cheaper price tag, giving him a sizable edge in projected Plus/Minus.
Mark Andrews was once one of the best tight ends in fantasy, but those days appear long gone. His role has plummeted for the Ravens in recent games. His route participation has hovered between 50% and 67% of late, and he’s scored single-digit PPR points in six straight.
Andrews basically needs a touchdown at this point to have any chance at returning value. That’s certainly possible. However, he has just six touchdowns for the year, and he hasn’t scored as a receiver since Week 10.
The one positive is that the Steelers have been an elite matchup for tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position, giving Andrews one of the better Opponent Plus/Minus marks on the slate. Unfortunately, Andrews was unable to take advantage of this matchup the first time around, finishing with just one catch for nine yards on five targets.
Adam Thielen is a relatively new acquisition for the Steelers, but he’s their de facto No. 1 option with Metcalf out of the lineup. He had a 95% route participation in Week 17, though he finished with just a 12% target share.
Thielen was much more productive the week prior. He was on the field for just 40% of the team’s passing plays, but he earned a target on 22% of his routes run. He finished with four catches for 49 yards vs. the Lions, so he could improve upon last week’s performance. Thielen stands out as overpriced at $5,600 on DraftKings, but he’s pretty reasonable at $4,800 on FanDuel.
The Steelers leaned on their TE group a bit more in their first game without Metcalf. Pat Freiermuth was the big winner, jumping up to a 77% route participation. He posted a 15% target share in that outing, and he responded with 9.3 PPR points. He’s gotten a bit more expensive this week, but he still stands out as one of the best values on the slate.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers own the edge in terms of projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, while the defenses grade out as slightly stronger options in Sim Labs. That said, there are plenty of appealing value options on this slate, which makes this entire quartet less valuable than usual.
- Isaiah Likely ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Likely benefits from the same matchup as Andrews, and he had 12.5 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Steelers this season. His day would’ve been even better if not for a second receiving touchdown being overturned late in the fourth quarter.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Smith had seemingly fallen out of favor in recent weeks, but the injury to Darnell Washington helped him in Week 17. He bounced back with a 15% target share last week, and he racked up 7.7 PPR points. His 30% route participation wasn’t great, but he was targeted on 38% of his routes run.
- Keaton Mitchell ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – The Ravens had been getting Mitchell more involved, but with the season on the line last week, they leaned much more on Henry. He had just an 18% snap share, and he saw just 18% of the team’s rushing attempts.
- Calvin Austin ($3,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) – Austin missed last week’s contest vs. the Browns, but he’ll be back in the lineup in Week 18. Unfortunately, his role was on the decline even before getting injured. He posted target shares of just 6% and 4% in his last two full games, so there’s no guarantee he returns to a meaningful role vs. the Ravens.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,200 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Valdes-Scantling is too cheap across the industry. He has long-established chemistry with Rodgers, and he posted a 95% route participation and 24% target share in his first game without Metcalf. It resulted in just 3.1 PPR points, but he definitely has the potential for a better performance in Week 18.
- Scotty Miller ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) – Miller has seemingly come out of nowhere to score 4.9 and 5.5 PPR points in his past two games. That said, his underlying metrics aren’t very inspiring, and he could be relegated to reserve duty with Austin back in the fold. He is comically overpriced on FanDuel, and he’s not particularly appealing on DraftKings, either.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Hopkins was one of the best receivers of his era, but those days are clearly in the past. However, he could see a slight bump this week with Rashod Bateman out of the lineup. Hopkins had a 56% route participation with Bateman unavailable in Week 15, which is a solid mark for a player in this price range. Hopkins also has a +0.49 correlation with Jackson, making him a sneaky stack partner.
- Rasheen Ali ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Ali has served as the Ravens’ pass-catching back following the injury to Justice Hill. That role has the potential to pay dividends for fantasy purposes. He’s been targeted on at least 22% of his routes run in three straight games, and he’s had a target share of at least 10% in four straight. He went off for 11.2 DraftKings in Week 15, so he has some upside at this price tag.
- Devontez Walker ($1,200 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Walker should also get in the mix for the Ravens at receiver. He had a 44% route participation in the last game without Bateman, though he failed to earn a single target.
Pictured: Derrick Henry
Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, Imagn
