NFL Week 9 gets underway with a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins. The Ravens are listed as 7.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
The Ravens entered the year with massive expectations, but they’ve been hit hard by injuries. However, they have gotten significantly healthier since their Week 7 bye. They got back a host of key pieces in last week’s win over the Bears, and now they’ll get star quarterback Lamar Jackson in the lineup for the first time since Week 4.
The Dolphins have had a rough year, but they’re coming off a massive upset win last week on the road vs. the Falcons. They hung 34 points on Atlanta’s excellent defense, while they allowed just 10 points to Kirk Cousins and company. It was an impressive showing that suggests the Dolphins still may have some fight left in them.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
For a matchup between two teams with a combined four wins, there sure is a lot of high-priced talent to consider.
That starts with Jackson. He remains one of the game’s premier players, and the team’s struggles have had nothing to do with his performance. He’s been as good as ever, averaging a career-best 10.78 adjusted yards per attempt through his first four outings. He has 10 touchdown passes to just one interception after posting an absurd 41:4 ratio last year.
Jackson is also still one of the top rushing threats at the position. He isn’t using his legs quite as much this season, but he’s made up for it with an average of 7.9 yards per carry. He’s ultimately chipped in 41.5 yards per game on the ground, and he’s also added one touchdown.
Add it all up, and Jackson averaged 27.6 fantasy points in his three full starts. He had at least 26.3 DraftKings points in each of those outings before slumping to 12.68 in the game he exited early vs. the Chiefs.
With Jackson back in the fold, he’s the clear top fantasy target on this slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
De’Von Achane is the Dolphins’ top fantasy threat. However, he hasn’t had a great season. He’s provided a solid floor, scoring at least 16.1 DraftKings points in all but one game, but he hasn’t displayed a ton of upside. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three contests, and he’s eclipsed 20.1 DraftKings points merely twice. That’s not quite what you’re looking for from an $11.4k player.
The good news is that Achane still has one of the most desirable workloads in fantasy. He’s not quite at bell-cow levels as a runner – he’s tallied 63% of the team’s designed rushing attempts this season – but he more than makes up for it with his work in the passing game. He’s posted a 24% target share for the year, which trails only Christian McCaffrey at the RB position. Achane has seen at least five targets in six of his past seven games, and he’s had seven targets or more in four of them.
That makes the potential game script a positive for him. Running backs tend to perform significantly worse as large underdogs, but Achane is one of the exceptions. He’s played in three games as an underdog of at least six points, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.64 (per the Trends tool).
The Ravens have also allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, so it’s a solid matchup on paper. That number might be a bit deceiving – the Ravens are a lot healthier on defense currently than they were to start the year – but Achane still has one of the higher ceilings on the slate.
It’s been a pretty frustrating season for Derrick Henry. He remains an effective runner, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but he hasn’t had as many opportunities as usual. The Ravens have found themselves in a ton of negative game scripts, which have forced Henry off the field. He doesn’t serve as the team’s receiving back, so when they fall behind early, Henry can post some dismal fantasy scores.
He’s started to turn things around in recent weeks. He racked up 24 carries and 122 yards in the team’s final game before their bye week, and he had 22 carries and two touchdowns last week. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests despite Jackson not being in the lineup.
Now that his star running mate is back in the fold, Henry has the potential to go nuclear vs. the Dolphins. Miami somehow managed to shut down Bijan Robinson last week, but they’ve still been absolutely dismal against the run this season. They’ve allowed at least 104 rushing yards in each of their other seven games, and they’ve allowed an average of just under 160 yards per game during that stretch. They’ve allowed 5.0 yards per carry to their opponents, which is the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Henry also has an elite track record as a big favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.39 when favored by at least a touchdown for his career. Add it all up, and this is a spot where he could do serious damage.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa are technically priced in the “stud” tier, but I simply couldn’t put them in the same range as Jackson, Achane, and Henry. They’ll have to settle for being relegated to the midrange.
Waddle can definitely take offense to that slight. He’s taken over as the team’s clear No. 1 receiver following the injury to Tyreek Hill, and he’s averaged 15.9 PPR points per game over his past four contests. That’s good for the No. 9 spot at receiver.
However, Waddle hasn’t exactly posted an alpha workload during that stretch. His route participation sits at just 80%, while his target share is at 23%. Those are solid marks, but they’re far from elite.
Waddle has made up for it with his big-play ability. He’s earned a massive 50% air yards share during his past four contests, and he’s been above 60% twice.
He definitely has the potential for a big showing vs. the Ravens. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and the Dolphins could be forced to throw the ball a bunch as big underdogs.
It’s harder to get excited about Tagovailoa. He doesn’t look like the same player who led the league in passing yards just two years ago. His adjusted yards per attempt have plummeted to just 5.92, and he ranks merely 27th at the position in fantasy points per game.
Tagovailoa has displayed plenty of downside during that stretch, and he hasn’t had nearly the same level of upside. He’s yet to eclipse 24.2 DraftKings points on the year. Even when he erupted for four touchdown passes last week, he still finished as just the eighth-highest scorer at the position.
That makes a $10,000 price tag feel too steep. Quarterbacks always have appeal in the single-game format, but he’s hard to trust on the road against a healthy Ravens’ defense.
No one will be happier to see Jackson walk through the doors than Zay Flowers. In his three full games with Jackson, Flowers posted a 30% target share and averaged 15.4 PPR points per game. Flowers maintained a very healthy target share in his three full games without Jackson, but his PPR average dipped to just 11.6.
That makes him a solid buy-low option at $9,400. He has the fifth-best projected Plus/Minus on this slate, and he trails only Jackson among players priced above $4,800.
Rashod Bateman is the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver, and he should also be happy to see Jackson. He averaged five targets per game through the first three weeks, but that number has slipped to just 2.5 over his previous four.
Still, $6,400 feels like an extremely aggressive price tag. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one contest this season, and even with Jackson under center, Bateman has managed more than four targets in just one game. He’s a much more reasonable option on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating. He also owns a +0.41 correlation with Jackson, which is the quarterback’s top mark.
Mark Andrews rounds out this tier, and he’s always a threat to find the paint. However, he’s likely going to have to do so to return value at his price tag. His playing time has taken a significant hit with Isaiah Likely back in the lineup, culminating in a season-low 56% route participation in Week 8. His target share sits at just 17% for the year, and he had just four targets, two catches, and seven total yards across his first two games with Jackson. He’s been at 34 scrimmage yards or lower in all but one game this season, so he’s not a huge threat in weeks where he doesn’t find the paint.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Unsurprisingly, the kickers stand out as the better values in our NFL Models in a game with a 51.5-point total. However, the Ravens Defense stands out as undervalued in Sim Labs, with their projected ownership checking in 5.5% lower than their optimal lineup rate.
- Malik Washington ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – Washington stands out as an excellent value at just $4,800 on DraftKings. He has a healthy 19% target share since Week 5, and he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run during that stretch. He caught his first touchdown last week vs. the Falcons, so he’s a player on the rise.
- Ollie Gordon ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Gordon turned in the best performance of his career last week, though it came in a blowout. Still, seven of his 10 carries came in the first half, so he wasn’t exactly feasting in garbage time. Gordon also managed to secure a receiving touchdown, so it’s possible he takes on a slightly larger workload moving forward.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Hopkins was once one of the best receivers in football, but those days are in the rearview mirror. He’s a part-time player at this point, and he has just an 8% target share for the year. However, he did find the paint in two of three full games with Jackson to start the season.
- Justice Hill ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Hill is the Ravens’ third-down back, but he doesn’t typically get a ton of opportunities as a runner. That doesn’t make this a particularly appealing game script for him.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Westbrook-Ikhine had one of the quietest nine-touchdown seasons in football last year, but he hasn’t made nearly the same mark in his first season in Miami. He has just eight catches for the season, though he has seen a slight uptick in recent weeks. His route participation is up to 69% in four games without Hill, and he’s posted a double-digit target share in back-to-back games.
- Tanner Conner ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – The Dolphins lost starting TE Darren Waller to injury last week, leaving Conner presumably as the next man up. He’s been targeted on 14% of his routes run this season, and he could see significantly more snaps in Week 9.
- Isaiah Likely ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – This will be Likely’s first full game with Jackson (hopefully), and the two players have displayed solid chemistry in the past. Likely is off to a slow start this season, but his snaps and routes run have increased in recent weeks.
- Keaton Mitchell ($1,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Mitchell is an absolute home-run hitter at RB, but he struggles to find consistent opportunities in the crowded Ravens’ backfield. He turned four carries into 43 yards last week vs. the Bears, and it’s possible he gets some extra work if this game turns into a blowout.
- Jaylen Wright ($1,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Wright got in the mix for the Dolphins last week, but most of that work came in garbage time. He failed to earn a single carry the week prior, so he doesn’t seem particularly involved at the moment.
- Greg Dulcich ($600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Dulcich could see some work with the Dolphins so banged up at TE. He has some pass-catching chops, so he’s at least an intriguing punt play.
Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo Credit: Imagn
