The first NFL Sunday of the year is upon us! After a strong 12-game main slate to start the day, the action wraps up with a banger of a Sunday Night Football matchup. The Buffalo Bills will host the Baltimore Ravens in a showdown between two of the best teams in football. The Ravens are currently listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
These two squads met twice last season, with the home team winning on both occasions. The Ravens demolished the Bills, 35-10, in Baltimore during the regular season, but Buffalo got its revenge during the playoffs. However, the Ravens had a chance to tie the game late with a two-point conversion, only to have the ball slip through Mark Andrews’ fingers.
One way or another, this has the potential to be one of the best games of the year. Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game is headlined by two of the best quarterbacks in football. Josh Allen took home the MVP award last season, with Lamar Jackson finishing as the runner-up. Jackson won his second MVP award the year prior, and both are among the favorites to do so again this season.
From a fantasy perspective, Jackson was the better quarterback last season. He led the league with an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game, while Allen was second at 22.6. Allen had the edge in terms of rushing touchdowns (13 vs. four), but Jackson had more rushing yards and far better passing stats. In fact, Jackson had one of the most efficient passing seasons in NFL history, throwing 41 touchdowns to a minuscule four interceptions.
That said, Allen is the more expensive quarterback in this matchup. It’s by the slimmest of margins, and it’s likely due to the Bills being at home. Allen is a slight underdog in this contest, but he’s the rare quarterback who has historically fared well in that split. He’s averaged a +2.08 Plus/Minus as a dog for his career, including a +4.01 mark since the start of 2020-21 (per the Trends tool).
While that’s a nice feather in Allen’s cap, it’s hard not to prefer Jackson in this contest. From a matchup standpoint, facing the Bills is far superior to facing the Ravens. Jackson owns a +2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus, while Allen has a dreadful -5.2 mark. Allen has averaged just 15.24 DraftKings points in five career meetings vs. the Ravens, and he’s been at 19.08 DraftKings points or fewer in four of them. That includes both of their matchups last year, while Jackson had 20.06 and 24.64 DraftKings points in those contests.
Additionally, the Bills secondary enters this contest in rough shape. Tre’Davious White is doubtful after failing to practice over the past couple of weeks. Christian Benford is questionable, while first-round pick Maxwell Hairston is on IR. The team has also dealt with some injuries at safety, so they have a few weaknesses that Jackson can potentially exploit.
Ultimately, Jackson has a slim edge over Allen in our projections, and when combined with his cheaper price tag, it makes him the preferred choice between the two. Of course, playing both together is totally reasonable, and they have the two highest median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models. Both players are going to command massive ownership, and using both means you’ll have to get creative with some of your other choices. While that’s not easy, it could prove fruitful.
Derrick Henry rounds out the stud tier, and he was an absolute monster in his first year in Baltimore. He had 1,921 rushing yards with 18 total touchdowns, and he averaged a ridiculous 5.9 yards per attempt. Any concerns about his decreased efficiency toward the end of his Titans’ tenure proved to be foolish. Defenses are forced to deal with Jackson’s threat in the run game, giving Henry the easiest job of his entire career.
Henry absolutely humiliated the Bills in their regular-season meeting last season. He turned 24 carries into 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown scamper. He also fumbled on what would’ve been a second touchdown, with Patrick Ricard recovering in the end zone instead.
Henry wasn’t nearly as effective in their playoff showdown vs. the Bills, but he still averaged a hyper-efficient 5.2 yards per carry. He simply didn’t get as many opportunities as usual with the Ravens trailing by 11 at halftime.
With the Ravens favored Sunday night, game script shouldn’t be an issue. Henry was basically unstoppable as a favorite last season, averaging 22.32 DraftKings points and a +5.63 Plus/Minus. He had at least 23.9 DraftKings points on nine separate occasions, including four games with at least 33.1. Henry also had massive success as a favorite with the Titans, so it’s not surprising he thrived in that role with Baltimore. When he gets to 20-plus touches, there’s very little that an opposing defense can do to stop him.
That said, Henry isn’t exactly a slam dunk. For starters, the matchup isn’t nearly as good for him as it is for Jackson. The Bills were better against the run than the pass last season, ranking fifth in rush defense EPA. Add in the injuries in the Bills’ secondary, and they may lean a bit heavier than usual on the passing attack.
Henry’s biggest issue is simply that he’s not Jackson or Allen. Even though he’s one of the best running backs in fantasy, quarterbacks simply score more fantasy points in a vacuum. It’s extremely tough to play all three of these options together, especially if you’re using one at Captain. Henry grades out as the clear worst option of the trio, so he will likely get cut by default from a lot of builds. That does make him a slightly contrarian option, as he’s projected for far less ownership than Allen and Jackson, but the quarterbacks are the superior plays.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
James Cook will serve as the Bills’ top running back. It didn’t always look like that would be the case, with Cook holding out during training camp. However, Buffalo managed to bring him back with a four-year, $48M extension, so Cook has been locked up for the next few seasons.
Cook is coming off back-to-back strong seasons, including tying Henry with 18 touchdowns last year. However, he lacks the true “bell-cow” status. The Bills have a few other running backs that typically factor into the equation, and Cook finished the year with just 50% of the team’s carries and an 8% target rate. If Cook’s touchdowns regress a bit in 2025 and he doesn’t take a step forward from a workload standpoint, he could end up being a disappointment.
Ultimately, Cook stands out as overpriced in our NFL Models. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus in this tier, while there are a few lower-priced players with higher ceiling projections.
Zay Flowers is one of them. He was the Ravens’ clear top option in the passing attack last season, posting a strong 26% target share. He also led the team with 29% of their air yards. The only thing he didn’t really do was catch touchdowns. He finished with just four scores last season, which is two fewer than he had as a rookie. Flowers didn’t underperform his expected metrics by a wide margin (4.2 expected TDs per PFF), but it wouldn’t be a shock if he scored a bit more in 2025.
Mark Andrews also provides some value. Andrews got off to a rocky start in 2024, including two zero-catch outings in his first four games. However, he was still a fantasy force from Week 5 on, ranking as the No. 8 TE in PPR points per game.
Unlike Flowers, most of Andrews’ value was derived from touchdowns. He led the Ravens with 11 receiving touchdowns last season, and he garnered 23% of their end-zone targets. Andrews definitely ran hot in that department, as he had just 6.5 expected receiving scores, but it was enough to keep him fantasy relevant.
That gives Andrews some risk heading into 2025. If he doesn’t score at the same rate, he might not be able to make up for it with yards and receptions. However, that’s not a huge obstacle in Week 1. Isaiah Likely has already been ruled out with an injury, and he and Andrews split the TE snaps pretty evenly last year. With Likely sidelined, the coast is clear for Andrews to see a big spike in snaps, which should lead to an uptick in opportunities. Even if you’re not bullish on Andrews for the year (like me), this is undoubtedly a strong spot to target him.
Khalil Shakir was the focal point of the Bills’ passing attack last season. They had lots of bodies that rotated in and out at the receiver position, but Shakir was the one real constant. He wasn’t an every-down receiver, but he earned a target on 25% of his routes run. That was the clear best mark on the team.
Most of Shakir’s damage comes around the line of scrimmage. While that’s not ideal in terms of generating big plays, it’s not an issue in full-PPR formats. Shakir caught 76% of his looks last season, so he makes up for any potential lack of yardage with increased catch totals.
Shakir might face a bit more competition for targets this season, but his role as the team’s slot receiver is secure. He should once again be a PPR-friendly option.
If someone supplants Shakir as the top pass-catcher in Buffalo, it will likely be Keon Coleman. He was the No. 33 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but injuries impacted his rookie season. Coleman did appear in 13 regular-season contests, but he was never really able to get rolling.
Coleman generated plenty of positive buzz during training camp, so he’s a potential breakout candidate in his second season. Playing with an elite quarterback certainly doesn’t hurt, and he’s probably the team’s best raw talent at the position. With more opportunities this year, Coleman could prove to be an excellent value. He’s particularly appealing in this matchup on FanDuel, where his 98% Bargain Rating is tied for the best mark on the slate.
Rashod Bateman is coming off the best year of his career in 2025. He had a career-best 754 yards, and he also added nine receiving touchdowns. He was the team’s clear big-play threat at receiver, leading the squad in end-zone targets while ranking second in air yards.
There’s no guarantee that Bateman can match last year’s totals, but he’s at least in a good spot in Week 1. With Likely out of the lineup, he should be on the field for the majority of plays against an undermanned secondary. His +0.58 correlation with Jackson is also a major plus.
Dalton Kincaid is a bit of a headscratcher. The Bills used a premium pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he has been unable to establish himself as a true difference maker. He’s still splitting the snaps at tight end with Dawson Knox, which caps his upside.
However, Kincaid is at least featured when he’s on the field. He was targeted on 24% of his routes run last season, which was second on the team only to Shakir. If Kincaid takes a step forward in snaps this season, he could definitely overperform expectations.
Joshua Palmer rounds out this price range, and it’s hard to get excited about him in his first contest with the Bills. It’s unclear what his role will be at this point, especially with a bunch of options seemingly ahead of him in the pecking order. He ranks last in this price range in projected Plus/Minus.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers are showing up as the better values in our NFL Models, and they have the highest optimal lineup rates of the group in Sim Labs.
- De’Andre Hopkins ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Does Hopkins have anything left in the tank? That remains to be seen. He certainly didn’t look like it during his tenure with the Chiefs, and he should be the WR3 for Baltimore to start the year. He’s another player who could see a slight boost in responsibilities without Likely.
- Dawson Knox ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Knox had a 53% route participation last season, and as annoying as that might be to Kincaid owners, he’s probably not going anywhere. However, the upside here is pretty minimal: he never had more than 8.2 DraftKings points in a game last season.
- Elijah Moore ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Moore was also added to the Bills’ receiving corps this offseason. He’s fourth on the depth chart at the position, but the Bills worked a lot of different guys into the mix last year. He’ll probably be on the field some.
- Ray Davis ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Davis was a fourth-round pick in 2024, and he had a decent rookie season. Unfortunately, with Cook getting locked up to an extension, he’s probably going to be limited to backup duties. He got his most extensive work in blowouts last year, and this doesn’t seem like one of those spots.
- Justice Hill ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Hill always has some sneaky appeal in the Ravens’ backfield. While he’s not much of a threat to Henry on early downs, he played on 86% of the long-down-and-distance snaps last year. He was targeted on 20% of his routes run, giving him some upside at his current salary.
- Ty Johnson ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Johnson is the Bills’ pass-catching RB, playing on 78% of the passing-down snaps last year. He isn’t targeted as often as Hill, but he also has some appeal in PPR formats.
- Charlie Kolar ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Kolar should serve as the Ravens’ TE2 in place of Likely. That could lead to a couple of opportunities.
Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo Credit: Tina, MacIntyre, Imagn
