NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Rams vs. Seahawks Thursday Night Football (12/18)

NFL Week 16 gets underway with one of the most high-stakes games of the season. The Rams and Seahawks are currently tied atop the NFC leaderboard at 11-3, and they’ll square off for the second time on Thursday. The Seahawks are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5 points.

The Rams got the best of the Seahawks when these two teams met in Week 11, but that game was played in Los Angeles. They also won by just two points, while the Seahawks outgained them by more than 150 yards. The big difference was the turnover battle, which the Rams won 4-to-1.

Can the Seahawks get some revenge, or will the Rams pick up another W? Let’s dive into all the top DFS targets for Thursday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game features two of the very best receivers in fantasy football. For the Rams, that starts with Puka Nacua. He’s coming off back-to-back monster performances, racking up seven catches for 167 yards and two scores vs. the Cardinals and following that up with nine catches for 181 yards vs. the Lions. He had 11 targets in both outings, despite not seeing a full complement of snaps in either contest. Nacua was limited to a 67% route participation across both outings, but he was targeted on a ridiculous 44% of his routes run.

For the year, Nacua has a 30% target share and has been targeted on 35% of his routes. Those are alpha numbers. The only thing he hasn’t done is score touchdowns at a high frequency. He has just six receiving touchdowns for the year, and he’s been targeted on just 10% of the team’s end zone looks.

That’s where the absence of Davante Adams would really help. Adams is officially doubtful with a hamstring injury, but the team will reportedly “give him every chance to suit up” in a massive divisional tilt. If Adams is sidelined, it will open up a huge chunk of looks around the goal line. He’s racked up 57% of the team’s end zone targets this season, which is the best mark in the league. Unsurprisingly, Adams leads the league with 14 receiving touchdowns.

If Adams is out of the picture, Nacua could add some additional goal line looks to his already dominant utilization. That is a pretty tantalizing thought. Nacua has already averaged the most PPR points per game at receiver this season (22.1).

However, Nacua will have to deal with a really tough matchup. The Seahawks have been an elite defense this season, ranking second in pass defense EPA. Nacua owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.7, and they limited him to “just” seven catches for 75 scoreless yards in their first matchup.

Still, it’s hard not to love Nacua if Adams is out of the picture. He would have a massive ceiling in that scenario, and he currently has the highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs at Captain and in the Flex.

While Nacua has been slightly better of late, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been remarkably consistent all season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games. One came all the way back in Week 4, while the other was against a dismal Max Brosmer-led Vikings’ squad. The Seahawks didn’t really need to throw the ball to win that contest, so JSN has basically been unstoppable when Seattle has played in competitive games.

He has the most desirable utilization in all of fantasy. He’s racked up 36% of his team’s targets this season, which is the top mark in the league. He’s gobbled up 47% of their air yards and 33% of their end zone targets. Smith-Njigba has been hyper-efficient with all that volume: his average of 11.9 yards per target ranks first among receivers with at least 40 targets this season.

The Rams also have a solid defense, ranking fourth in pass defense EPA, but they haven’t been particularly good at limiting fantasy points to opposing receivers. They’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position, and Smith-Njigba had 12 targets, nine catches, and 105 yards in their first matchup this season.

While he doesn’t get the same bump as Nacua will if the Rams are without Adams, it’s still hard not to consider him the best receiver on this slate. He owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus. JSN also provides the largest discrepancy between optimal Captain rate and projected ownership, making him an elite choice for the top spot.

Matthew Stafford rounds out the stud tier, and he has put together one of the best seasons of his Hall-of-Fame-worthy career. He’s thrown a league-best 37 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions, and he’s second in the league with 265.9 passing yards per game. He’s currently favored to take home the first MVP award of his career, and he could add a second Super Bowl ring in the playoffs.

Stafford provides zero production with his legs, but that hasn’t stopped him from providing excellent fantasy value all season. He’s averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game, which is tied with Drake Maye for the third-best mark at the position. Only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have been better.

That said, this is a bit of a scary spot for Stafford. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and Stafford had just 13.2 DraftKings points in their first matchup. He’ll also have to go on the road in one of the most terrifying environments in the NFL. Stafford has averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.16 when on the road as a member of the Rams, and he’s averaged nearly four fewer fantasy points per game when on the road this season (per the Trends tool).

Stafford ultimately has pretty mediocre projections by his standards in our NFL Models, and he has the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier by a decent margin.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Kyren Williams headlines the midrange tier, and he’s had another strong season on paper. He ranks tied for eighth at RB in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s on pace to score at least 15 touchdowns for the third straight season.

However, Williams has lost a bunch of work to Blake Corum in recent games. From Week 10 on, Williams has played on just 60% of the Rams’ offensive snaps, and he’s handled just 53% of the team’s carries. He also has just a 5% target share over that time frame.

That has made Williams extremely touchdown-dependent. That hasn’t been a huge issue – he has seven scores in his past six games – but it could be a big deal vs. the Seahawks. They’re first in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

It makes Williams a pretty clear fade at his current price tag. He has the worst projected Plus/Minus among all relevant players.

Sam Darnold rejuvenated his career with the Vikings last year, and he’s been even better with the Seahawks this season. However, he has yet to prove that he can deliver in the biggest of games. He was awful in a massive Week 18 game and the playoffs for the Vikings, and he threw four interceptions in his first meeting vs. the Rams this season.

Can Darnold flip the switch on Thursday night? That remains to be seen, but the Seahawks are going to need him if they’re going to win. Running the ball against the Rams has been extremely difficult this season, and the teams that have had success against them have done so through the air.

That’s a bit out of character for Seattle. They’re 30th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, which has limited Darnold’s fantasy production this season. Even though he’s graded out well from an efficiency standpoint, he’s just 24th at the position in fantasy points per game.

Darnold has also struggled when playing at home this season. He’s averaged a respectable 19.18 DraftKings points outside of Seattle, but that figure dips to just 12.68 in home games. That could just be a small sample size anomaly, but it’s something to at least consider.

That said, Darnold is still a QB, and quarterbacks always have appeal in the single-game format. He ranks fourth on the slate in median and ceiling projection, trailing only the three studs. He also has the third-highest optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs.

The Seahawks have leaned on their running game often this season, and they’ve utilized a true committee approach. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have split the workload pretty evenly. Walker has seen 47% of the team’s snaps and carries, while Charbonnet has played on 48% of the snaps and handled 40% of the rushing attempts.

Charbonnet makes up for his slightly fewer rushing attempts with some of his other utilization numbers. Specifically, he’s handled 63% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, and he’s played on 52% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. Walker is at just 38% and 23%, respectively, and those are two of the most important areas for fantasy scoring.

Walker ultimately has a slightly higher ceiling. He went for more than 20 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Rams this season, while Charbonnet has had 14.3 DraftKings points or fewer in seven straight games. He’s had a negative Plus/Minus in six of those contests.

Both guys stand out as mediocre options vs. an elite Rams’ defense, but Walker is the better of the two. He’s been more efficient, and the team tilted the workload a bit more in his favor the last time these teams met.

Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp round out the Seahawks’ WR corps. That said, JSN has been such a target hog this season that it hasn’t left much for either player. Since arriving in Seattle, Shaheed has averaged just 2.2 receptions and 29.7 receiving yards per game. He has just a 13% target share in those outings, so his impact has been felt more on special teams than on offense.

However, Shaheed is coming off his best receiving performance as a Seahawk last week. He saw seven targets, and he responded with five catches for 74 yards. Shaheed also returned a kickoff for a touchdown the week prior, so he’s had two straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. Shaheed is capable of generating huge plays on a regular basis, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to potentially do damage.

Kupp is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s been a steadier producer in recent weeks. He has an 82% route participation since Week 10, and he’s posted a 17% target share in those contests. He’s also coming off seven targets last week, and he finished with five catches for 46 yards.

Kupp doesn’t have the same ceiling as Shaheed, but the two players have pretty comparable projections overall. Kupp is a full $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings, making him the superior value. Both guys stand out as better options on FanDuel, where they each have a Bargain Rating of at least 85%.

Colby Parkinson rounds out this tier, and he might be the strongest midrange value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s had double-digit PPR points in four of them. That includes a huge performance in his last outing, racking up seven targets, five catches, 75 yards, and two touchdowns vs. the Lions.

The Rams are currently playing without Tyler Higbee, and Parkinson has seen a clear bump in his absence. He’s posted a 67% route participation over his past two games, and he’s been targeted on 25% of his routes in those contests.

The Seahawks haven’t been nearly as dominant against tight ends as they have vs. other positions this season. They’re allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to the position, and Parkinson scored against them in their first matchup. That game was with Higbee available, so Parkinson has the potential for a repeat on Thursday.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The two defenses grade out as slightly better options in our NFL Models, and they also have superior optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs. That said, it’s a lot harder to correlate a lineup around a defense than it is a kicker.
• Blake Corum ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Given the usage in the Rams’ backfield of late, it’s hard to justify Corum being this much cheaper than Williams. He has at least 71 yards and a touchdown in three straight games, and he’s averaged an elite 9.3 yards per carry in those contests. His workload should be pretty secure.
• A.J. Barner ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Barner has been the most consistent No. 2 pass-catcher for Seattle this season. Unfortunately, that’s not saying much. He has a 15% target share for the year, but he does have five touchdowns. Getting in the paint is his best chance for relevance on this slate.
• Davis Allen ($2,600 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Allen has posted a 41% route participation since Higbee went down with an injury, and he’s been targeted on a healthy 20% of his routes over that time frame. If Adams is unable to go, the Rams could lean on even more two-TE sets vs. the Seahawks.
• Jordan Whittington ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – It’s possible that Whittington steps into the No. 2 receiver role if Adams is sidelined. However, that wasn’t the case last week. He was limited to just a 10% route participation, and he failed to earn a single target.
• Konata Mumpfield ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Mumpfield was the more involved receiver for the Rams following the Adams injury. He still had just a 3% target share last week, but he was on the field for nearly 50% of the team’s pass plays. That gives him a bit more value than Whittington.
• Terrance Ferguson ($1,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Ferguson was the Rams’ second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he brings big pass-catching chops to the table at tight end. He also has excellent speed – he ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at the combine – and he had a 71% route participation last week. He had just two targets in that contest, but he could be a more prominent option vs. Seattle.
• Xavier Smith ($1,200 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Smith wasn’t really involved last week, but he had a route participation of at least 45% in the team’s previous two contests.

Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Imagn