NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Patriots vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football (12/21)

NFL Week 16 has the potential for an excellent Sunday Night Football contest. The Baltimore Ravens will host the New England Patriots, and they’re listed as three-point home favorites. The total on this game currently sits at 48.5 points.

It might be surprising for some to see the Ravens listed as favorites. Baltimore has struggled this season, winning just seven of 14 games, while the Patriots check in at 11-3. However, Baltimore is coming off a shutout win over the Bengals in Week 15 and have a long track record of success. The Patriots have feasted on weaker competition for most of the season, so this will be a nice test for them heading into the playoffs.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The two quarterbacks stand out as the top options on this slate. While Lamar Jackson has been the best producer in fantasy on multiple occasions throughout his career, Drake Maye is actually slightly more expensive in this matchup. It’s hard to argue against that. Maye currently ranks third at the position in fantasy points per game, while Lamar is all the way down at QB15. He’s been particularly poor since returning from injury, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.

Jackson didn’t have to do much with his arm vs. the Bengals last week. He attempted just 12 passes, though he was extremely efficient when he took to the air. He racked up 150 yards and two touchdowns, albeit with one interception.

Jackson has also seen a slight uptick in rushing efficiency over the past two weeks. He had just two carries vs. the Bengals, but he turned them into 26 yards. He had seven carries for 42 yards and a touchdown the week prior, so he’s starting to look like the Jackson of old. Lamar averaged just 3.2 yards per attempt over his previous five outings, which is a big reason why his fantasy production took a nosedive.

Jackson also has the edge from a matchup standpoint. While the Patriots have had a solid defense this season, they’ve still allowed a fair share of fantasy points to opposing QBs. Jackson checks in with a +1.0 Opponent Plus/Minus in this contest, while Maye is at -4.2. Jackson is also favored, giving his team a slightly higher implied team total.

Add it all up, and Lamar has slightly higher projections than Maye at a slightly cheaper price tag. He’s also projected for less ownership, making him the clear choice between the two.

Of course, playing both together is totally viable. Maye has been extremely reliable all season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in all but three outings. He’s still had at least 15.44 DraftKings points in two of the three exceptions, so he’s had just one true clunker all year.

Maye will take the field as an underdog on Sunday, but that hasn’t really hurt him much this season. He’s scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in four of five games in that split, and he’s averaged a positive Plus/Minus overall (per the Trends tool).

Maye ultimately ranks second on the slate in projected median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus, trailing only Jackson in all three areas.

Derrick Henry rounds out the stud tier, and he’s the least appealing option of the trio by a wide margin. Henry is still capable of ripping off big runs at nearly 32 years old. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per attempt for the year, and he had 100 yards on just 11 carries last week.

However, the volume is trending in the wrong direction for the Big Dog. He’s played on less than 40% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps in two of his past three games, and he’s handled less than 60% of their rushing attempts in both outings. Henry provides almost nothing as a pass-catcher, so he needs to dominate the workload as a runner to provide a strong ceiling.

It’s possible that he sees a slightly higher workload if this game stays competitive – he had 71% of the carries two weeks ago vs. the Steelers – but there’s no guarantee that leads to any success vs. the Patriots. New England has been pretty stout against the run this season, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. They’ve held opposing runners to 22.9 fewer rushing yards per game than their season average, which is the second-best mark.

The Patriots’ defense can be exploited by running backs in the passing game, but that’s not somewhere that Henry excels. He doesn’t seem likely to take advantage of that weakness, so it’s one of the tougher matchups he’ll face this season.

Ultimately, it’s hard to view Henry as a stud RB at this point. He doesn’t have nearly the same ceiling that he did in his prime. He hasn’t eclipsed 23.2 DraftKings points since Week 1, and he’s been above 20 DraftKings points in just three games all season. It seems unlikely that he’ll do it vs. the Patriots.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The Patriots have employed a committee at running back for most of the season, with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson splitting the opportunities. However, Henderson has gotten the better of that split recently. He had 61% of the team’s carries and a 14% target share last week, and Henderson is a massive big-play threat. He had two carries of 50+ yards last week vs. the Bills, and both of them went for touchdowns.

Henderson ultimately finished with 33.1 DraftKings points, his third game with more than 30 in his past five. It was the first time that he cracked that threshold with Stevenson also in the lineup, so his stock is clearly on the rise.

Still, it’s hard not to view last week’s performance as a bit fluky. Big plays are a big part of Henderson’s game, but without those two 50+ yard carries, he would’ve been looking at another mediocre showing. He had 11.6 and 11.1 DraftKings points in his two previous games alongside Stevenson, but he took full advantage of a juicy matchup vs. the Bills. Henderson still has some upside, but he’s overpriced for his most likely outcome.

Stevenson stands out as the more appealing value in our NFL Models. He continues to dominate the high-value touches in New England. He played on 75% of the short-yardage snaps and 100% of the long-down-and-distance snaps last week vs. the Bills. Stevenson was also pretty productive with his opportunities, racking up 50 yards on his six carries while catching all three of his targets.

While Stevenson doesn’t have the same ceiling as Henderson, he has a pretty reasonable floor. He has double-digit PPR points in back-to-back games, despite failing to score in either contest. His role as the team’s short-yardage back should lead to some touchdowns moving forward, so he could definitely add that to his ledger vs. the Ravens.

Zay Flowers continues to post some of the most under-the-radar stud metrics at the receiver position. He had a 42% target share, 74% air yards share, and 100% end zone share last week vs. the Bengals. He managed to finish with at least 15.8 DraftKings points for the second straight game, which is impressive considering the Ravens only threw the ball 12 times last week.

Flowers has a 30% target share for the year, so he’s frequently targeted when Jackson drops back. His biggest issue this season has been finding the end zone. Last week’s touchdown was his first since all the way back in Week 1, and it’s hard to post big numbers without finding the paint. The Ravens will likely have to throw the ball more than they did in Week 15, and the Patriots have been a neutral fantasy matchup for receivers this season.

The Patriots have three pass-catchers in this price range: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry. Let’s start with the receivers. Diggs and Boutte have been the Pats’ two most productive receivers this season, but they both have their warts.

For Diggs, the biggest issue has simply been getting on the field. He has a paltry 68% route participation for the year, and that figure has trended down in recent weeks. He’s been at just 57% over the team’s past three games, and he has just a 12% target share over that stretch.

Diggs is still capable of popping off for a big game, but we’ve seen far less of it recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and he’s been at 5.6 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight games. Diggs’ salary has come down slightly over that time frame, but he still stands out as too expensive given his utilization.

Boutte is arguably even less appealing. While he’s on the field more than Diggs, he is often an afterthought in the Patriots’ passing attack. He has just a 12% target share for the year, and he’s been at 10% over his past three games.

His value has stemmed primarily from touchdowns for most of the year. He has just 30 catches for the season, but six of them have found the paint. He ultimately has massive downside in weeks where he doesn’t score, and his ceiling is pretty limited even when he does. Boutte managed to score two weeks ago, but he still finished with just 13.5 DraftKings points. He ultimately owns the worst projected Plus/Minus among fantasy-relevant players.

Henry stands out as the Patriots’ most appealing pass-catcher. He has been pretty consistent for most of the year, racking up a 17% target share overall. He’s coming off a clunker last week vs. the Bills, but Buffalo has been elite at defending tight ends this season. No team has allowed fewer PPR points per game to the position, so struggling in that spot is not all that surprising.

The Ravens don’t represent an easy matchup for Henry, but he should be locked in for something like 15-20% of the targets. He’s more than $2,000 cheaper than Diggs on DraftKings, yet his projections in our NFL Models look remarkably similar.

Mark Andrews rounds out this price range, and he’s a player with a wide range of outcomes. His snaps and routes can vary wildly from week to week. He had an 86% route participation vs. the Steelers two weeks ago, but he was down to just 56% vs. the Bengals last week.

Like with Boutte, most of Andrews’ value stems from touchdowns. He has six scores this season, and he had 11 in 17 games last year. He’ll likely need to find the paint to return value vs. the Patriots, but that’s a realistic proposition. He’s also priced pretty reasonably at $5,400, especially considering his $6,800 salary last week.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Tyler Loop has the best projections among the quartet in our NFL Models, which isn’t a huge shock since the Ravens are favored in a game with a 48.5-point total.
• Mack Hollins ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) – Hollins has emerged as the Patriots’ No. 1 receiver in recent weeks. He’s on the field much more than Diggs, and he’s been targeted at a much higher frequency than Boutte. He posted a massive 38% target share in his last outing, and he trails only the QBs in projected Plus/Minus.
• Isaiah Likely ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Likely is coming off a zero-target performance last week, but his route participation was still around 60%. He’s best used as a stacking partner with Jackson. The two players have a correlation of +0.34, and only De’Andre Hopkins has a better correlation with the Ravens’ QB.
• Rashod Bateman ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Bateman has been on the field plenty this season, but he’s struggled to earn targets at the same rate that he did last season. He has just a 12% target share for the year, and he’s been below that figure in three straight games. Still, it’s hard to find a player this cheap who is on the field as often as Bateman.
• DeMario Douglas ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Douglas is another body in the Patriots’ rotation at receiver. While he hasn’t been used as prominently as in previous years, he’s still been targeted on 19% of his routes run this season. Unfortunately, his route participation dipped to just 21% last week, and he finished with zero targets for the first time since Week 4.
• Keaton Mitchell ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Mitchell is coming off a 40% snap share last week vs. the Bengals. That number was likely inflated by the game turning into a blowout, but Mitchell has at least 6.6 PPR points in four of his past five games. He has some home-run-hitting potential at running back, and he’s getting on the field more consistently than he was to start the year.
• DeAndre Hopkins ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Hopkins will go down as one of the best receivers of his era, but he’s simply not the same player at this point. He was up to a 56% route participation last week, but he has just a 9% target share overall.
• Rasheen Ali ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Ali has stepped into the Justice Hill role in the Ravens’ backfield. That means he’s getting most of the receiving opportunities, and he took advantage last week, catching a touchdown from Jackson. He could have some value, particularly if you think the Ravens will be playing this game from behind.
• Austin Hooper ($1,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Hooper is the Patriots’ No. 2 TE, but he’s failed to earn a target in back-to-back games. His route participation has been below 30% in both contests, so he’s not much of a factor in the passing game.

Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo Credit: Imagn