Sunday Night Football in Week 5 features a good old-fashioned AFC East rivalry. The Bills will play host to the Patriots, with Buffalo listed as 8.5-point home favorites. There is expected to be a good amount of offense in this contest, with the total currently sitting at 49.5.
While the Patriots dominated the AFC East during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, this hasn’t been much of a rivalry of late. Buffalo has won eight of the past 11 meetings, and while they split their two matchups last season, the Patriots’ victory came in Week 18 with the Bills resting their starters.
Buffalo is off to another phenomenal start this season, currently sitting at 4-0. The Patriots are merely 2-2, though with some better luck, they could’ve easily won against the Raiders and Steelers. It sets up a matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations that might be a bit closer than expected.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen headlines this slate, just like he does virtually every time the Bills take the field. He took home his first MVP award last season, but he’s been a fantasy monster for significantly longer. He’s accounted for more than 40 total touchdowns (passing + rushing) in five straight seasons, and he’s well on his way toward doing it again in 2025. Allen has averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game so far this season, which is the top mark in the league.
The way Allen has done it has been extremely impressive. He hasn’t had to throw the ball nearly as much as usual, with the Bills steamrolling their past three opponents. He’s averaged just 25 pass attempts per game during that stretch, but he’s made up for it with fantastic efficiency. He’s averaged 8.75 adjusted yards per attempt through the first four weeks, which would represent a new career high.
Of course, Allen’s arm is only half of the equation. He’s also one of the biggest rushing threats at the position, and he’s averaged 39.8 rushing yards per game. He’s also punched in three rushing touchdowns, and he remains a massive threat around the goal line. He leads all quarterbacks with six carries from inside the five-yard line this season, and only Josh Jacobs has more opportunities in that range overall.
With the Bills listed as big favorites once again, Allen could be looking at another week of subpar volume. However, Allen has historically had no problems racking up points in comparable spots. He’s averaged 25.67 DraftKings points when favored by at least a touchdown, and it’s not until the spread gets to 14 points that we see a significant dropoff (per the Trends tool).
Allen unsurprisingly leads the slate in median and ceiling projection, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus as well. He should be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he’s really tough to avoid. Between the Captain and Flex spots, his optimal lineup rate is nearly 90% in Sim Labs.
James Cook is the Bills’ other stud option, and he’s gotten off to a monster start this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games, scoring at least 21.2 DraftKings points in each contest. Cook was rewarded with a new contract this offseason, and it has immediately paid dividends for the Bills.
Cook’s utilization isn’t quite as elite as you’d expect for the current fantasy RB1 in points per game. He’s handled 70% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he’s racked up just a 10% target share. Cook has also been on the field for just 61% of the team’s offensive snaps, though that number has undoubtedly been impacted by the team playing in a string of blowouts. It ultimately gives Cook a lower floor than some of the other top RBs in fantasy.
The good news is that the game script projects very favorably for Cook on Sunday night. Even without elite utilization, Cook has still managed to get to at least 19 carries in three straight games. If the Bills are able to build another lead, there’s no reason to expect anything different. Since the start of last season, Cook has averaged 20.23 DraftKings points and a +6.11 Plus/Minus when favored by at least a touchdown.
Cook has seen his salary skyrocket to $11,400 on DraftKings after starting the year at just $9,400. That could result in lower ownership than usual, especially with most people gravitating toward Allen.
It makes Cook an elite pivot in large tournaments, especially at the Captain spot. He has the highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs at Captain, and he’s projected for less ownership than Allen. The two players have a -0.29 correlation, so he’s basically a must in any lineups where you’re fading the Bills’ quarterback.
Drake Maye has officially entered the stud tier for the Patriots. He’s still made less than a year’s worth of starts at the NFL level, but what we’ve seen from him has been extremely impressive. He exceeded expectations as a rookie, and he’s taken a solid step forward in his second year. He’s currently averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game, making him the fourth-highest scorer at QB. Maye has also scored at least 21.22 DraftKings points in three straight after starting the year with a mediocre showing vs. the Raiders.
Maye has already accounted for nine touchdowns this season: seven through the air and two on the ground. He may not be quite as good on the ground as some of the top rushing QBs in fantasy, but he’s not too far behind, either. He averaged 32.4 rushing yards per game during his rookie season, and he’s been at 24.5 so far this year.
Maye has an improved supporting cast at his disposal this season, and he should at least come close to replicating his production moving forward. He stands out as the clear No. 2 option on this slate, trailing only Allen in most of the major projection categories.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
While the Bills have arguably the best quarterback in the league, they’re using more of a committee approach at receiver. No one on the team has a target share above 20% this season, so Allen spreads the ball out fairly equally.
If they do have a top receiver, it’s probably Keon Coleman. Coleman was an early draft pick for the Bills last year, though injuries kept him from making a huge impact as a rookie. He’s been much more involved in his second season, leading the receiving corps in target share, route participation, and air yards.
Coleman put together a monster first week, but his numbers have been much more muted since then. That’s to be expected with Allen not throwing the ball a ton in the past three contests. The good news is that there are some positive underlying signs with Coleman. His catch rate is up to 77.3% this year after sitting at just 50% as a rookie, despite his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) still checking in at a healthy 11.4 yards.
In weeks where the Bills are eventually challenged, Coleman could end up providing excellent value at this price tag. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating. That said, there’s no guarantee that this is the week that happens.
Khalil Shakir was the Bills’ top receiver last year, though his numbers are down virtually across the board to start 2024. His target share has dipped from 23% last year to just 16% this season, while his targets per route run have dipped even further. Most of Shakir’s opportunities come close to the line of scrimmage – his aDOT checks in at just 5.4 yards – so he needs volume to return value.
However, Shakir did post a season-best 24% target share in Week 4. While that’s still far from an elite figure, it represents a step in the right direction. He responded with five catches for 69 yards, and he added his second touchdown of the year.
While that’s definitely encouraging, Shakir still stands out as a risky proposition at $8,200. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in the midrange.
Dalton Kincaid is also in the mix for the Bills. He’s not an every-down player at tight end, with his 60% route participation ranking a paltry 28th at the position. Until that changes, Kincaid is never going to be a true stud at the position.
However, Kincaid has made the most of his opportunities this year. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run, which makes him a clear focal point of the passing attack when he is on the field. He’s also seen 38% of the team’s end zone targets, which he’s converted into three touchdowns. That’s just one fewer than he had in his first two NFL seasons combined.
Ultimately, it makes Kincaid a high-risk, high-reward type of player. He’s likely due for some sort of regression as a touchdown scorer, but he also has a decent ceiling for his price tag.
The Patriots brought in former Bill Stefon Diggs to headline their receiving corps this season. Diggs is coming off a major knee injury in 2024, and the Patriots have taken it somewhat easy on him to start the year. His route participation was at just 62% through the first three weeks, while he amassed just a 15% target share.
However, the Pats ramped up Diggs’ involvement a bit in Week 4. He got up to an 82% route participation, and he had a massive 41% target share. He responded with six catches for 101 yards for his clear best game with his new team.
That makes Diggs a clear “buy” moving forward. He has the pedigree of being a true No. 1 receiver, and with that kind of utilization in Week 4, he could maintain that role moving forward. He’s still priced at a slight discount, so let’s take advantage while we can.
Hunter Henry finished as the No. 1 TE in fantasy in Week 3, and he’s currently tied for fourth at the position in terms of PPR points per game. He’s posted a respectable 19% target share for the year, though that number can oscillate quite a bit from week to week. He’s been as high as 29% this season, but he’s also been as low as 9%.
This doesn’t look like a particularly strong matchup for him. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, and they’ve yet to allow more than 28 receiving yards to a player at the position this year. They haven’t exactly faced a who’s who at the position, but Henry owns a -3.7 Opponent Plus/Minus in this contest. That’s the second-worst mark on the slate, better only than the Patriots Defense.
Kayshon Boutte rounds out the passing attack for the Patriots, and he got off to a strong start this year. However, he’s followed that up with three straight duds, finishing outside the top 50 in PPR points at receiver in three straight weeks. With Diggs starting to establish himself as the team’s No. 1 receiver, it’s easy to completely write him off.
However, Boutte maintained an 18% target share last week for the Patriots, and he also had 35% of the team’s air yards. He’s the team’s clear big-play threat at the position, and the Pats could take to the air quite a bit in this contest. There’s definitely some downside here, but there’s some upside as well.
The Patriots’ rushing attack remains one of the biggest headaches in fantasy. They have three players that each factor into the equation, making it tough for any one of them to stand out.
TreVeyon Henderson is coming off his best game as a pro last week, but unfortunately, it was based more on efficiency than volume. He still had a meager 29% snap share, and he had just 30% of the team’s rushing attempts.
Henderson made up for it by cashing in a short touchdown, and that could be his saving grace moving forward. He had 100% of the short-yardage opportunities for the Pats in Week 4, so he could emerge as the team’s clear goal line back. If he can add that to his work in the passing game, he would be the team’s top RB from a fantasy standpoint.
Still, he’s simply too expensive at $6,800, especially in a game where the Pats are sizable underdogs. There’s no reason he should be this much more expensive than the team’s other runners.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Matt Prater has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, while the Pats D stands out as undervalued in Sim Labs. They’re currently projected for just 16.1% ownership in the FLEX spots, but their optimal lineup rate is closer to 21%.
- Rhamondre Stevenson ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Stevenson is priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, making him an intriguing target. He’s played on 55% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, including most of the long-down-and-distance situations. That could pay dividends as a big underdog.
- Antonio Gibson ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Gibson has actually seen an increase in opportunities over the past two weeks, logging at least 26% of the team’s carries in back-to-back games. However, he’s provided minimal upside as a pass-catcher, and most of his fantasy production has come from two touchdowns (one rushing, one kick return).
- Joshua Palmer ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Palmer has been a high-floor, low-ceiling type of option for the Bills to start the year. He’s had a target share of at least 13% in three of four games, so he should see a handful of opportunities vs. the Patriots.
- Mack Hollins ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Hollins revenge game? It’s possible, but probably not. Hollins has been on the field for just 48% of the team’s pass plays this season, and he has just an 8% target share. That said, two of his seven catches have turned into touchdowns.
- Austin Hooper ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Hooper is the Pats’ TE2, and he’s been on the field for roughly 50% of the team’s pass plays over the past three weeks.
- DeMario Douglas ($2,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Douglas was the WR1 for the Pats for most of last year, but he hasn’t had the same impact in 2025. His route participation dipped to just 23% last week, and he failed to earn a single target.
- Elijah Moore ($1,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Another receiver for Allen. Like Douglas, his routes have plummeted over the past two weeks, and he failed to earn a single target in Week 4.
- Dawson Knox ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Knox is on the field a decent bit for the Bills, though he hasn’t been a huge factor in the passing attack of late. Still, he’s always a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Ty Johnson ($1,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Johnson has been the Bills’ top backup RB this season, though that stems primarily from his role on passing downs. If this game turns into a blowout, it’s likely Ray Davis that benefits from the garbage time carries.
- Curtis Samuel ($1,200 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Samuel made his 2025 debut in Week 4, and he was on the field for 39% of the team’s passing plays. He was targeted on 19% of his routes run, good for a 10% target share overall. That makes him the most interesting of the Bills’ punt receivers.
- Kyle Williams ($1,000 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Williams was an early draft pick for the Patriots in 2025, but he has basically been a non-factor through four weeks. However, he did see a slight uptick in routes last week, so it’s possible that his role is growing.
- Tyrell Shavers ($800 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Yet another Bills receiver. Seriously, they have about seven guys that factor in at the position. Shavers is the least interesting of the group, failing to catch a pass in three of four games.
- Jackson Hawes ($600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – You guessed it, another Bills’ pass catcher. This one plays tight end, and he has exactly one catch in all four games. One of those went for a touchdown, and if that happens again, he could end up in an optimal “stars-and-scrubs” lineup construction.
Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
