NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Lions vs. Ravens Monday Night Football (9/22)

The final game in NFL Week 3 has the potential to be a banger. It features two of the best teams in football from last year: the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at a massive 53.5 points.

Both of these teams enter this contest at 1-1. The Lions were embarrassed in Week 1 by the Packers, but they righted the ship last week vs. the Bears. They dropped more than 50 points against them, so their offense seems to be doing just fine without Ben Johnson.

The Ravens also suffered a defeat in Week 1, but it came in a much different fashion. They dominated for 90% of the game vs. the Bills, but they allowed Josh Allen to erase a 15-point deficit in the final four minutes. They at least managed to pick up a win last week vs. the Browns, and they still feel like one of the best teams in the league.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game features a ton of high-priced firepower, but Lamar Jackson stands in a tier of his own. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in football for a while now, but last year was his magnum opus. He finished with a ridiculous 41 passing touchdowns to just four interceptions, and he led the league with 10.15 adjusted yards per attempt. Not too shabby for a guy who some believed would have to transition to a different position in the NFL.

Of course, Jackson also brings elite rushing upside to the table. He’s averaged at least 51.3 rushing yards per game in each season as a starter, and his legs were on full display in Week 1. He torched the Bills for 70 yards and a touchdown on just six carries, and he’s averaging more than 10 yards per carry for the year.

Jackson led all players with an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game last season, and he’s off to another fantastic start in 2025. He’s averaged 27.8 points through the first two weeks, and he’s had at least 26.3 DraftKings points in both outings. He’s totaled six passing touchdowns, and he’s currently averaging 11.54 adjusted yards per attempt.

Jackson did that despite facing a tough Browns’ defense in Week 2. Things have the potential to be much easier for him on Monday. The Lions’ defense allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season, giving Jackson a slate-best +4.4 Opponent Plus/Minus. Detroit should be a bit improved in that department this year – they were demolished by injuries in 2024 – but it still stands out as a plus matchup.

Finally, Jackson has historically done some of his best work under the lights, especially on Monday Night Football. He’s averaged more than 27 DraftKings points per game on Monday night, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.21 (per the Trends tool).

Add it all up, and Jackson stands out as the clear top option on this slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.

Jahmyr Gibbs is next on the pricing spectrum, and he has quickly become one of the best running backs in fantasy. He finished second at the position in PPR points per game last year, trailing only Saquon Barkley, and he’s seventh at the position so far this season.

Gibbs has done it despite splitting the work in the Lions’ backfield. He’s played on just 61% of the offensive snaps this season, and he’s handled just 42% of the team’s carries. That puts him behind David Montgomery, who has handled 44%.

However, Gibbs makes up for it with his work in the passing game. He’s been targeted on a massive 30% of his routes run this season, good for a 20% target share overall. Only Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane have seen a larger percentage of their team’s targets at running back this season.

Gibbs has yet to receive a carry from inside the five-yard line this season, but he’s still very viable to score a touchdown. He scored from the six-yard line in Week 2, and he led all players with 20 touchdowns last year.

That said, Gibbs does carry a bit of risk at this price tag. It’s always risky to target an underdog RB at a stud price tag, even one that catches the ball as well as Gibbs. He’s historically averaged around four fewer fantasy points per game as an underdog, and the Ravens allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs in 2024. They haven’t been quite as effective to start the year, but it’s over a small sample size. I would expect them to improve moving forward. Ultimately, Gibbs grades out as the worst pure value in the stud tier.

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions’ passing attack. He got off to a tough start vs. the Packers, but he was an absolute monster in Week 2 vs. the Bears. He racked up a massive 39% target share, and he responded with nine catches, 115 yards, and three touchdowns.

That’s nothing new for St. Brown. He was the No. 5 receiver in PPR points per game in 2024, and he was fourth in that department the year prior.

The only real question is how often the Lions will throw. They had the eighth-lowest pass play percentage in 2024, which had a slight impact on St. Brown’s volume. He dipped from 164 targets in 2023 to just 141 last season, despite playing in an extra game.

That makes the potential game script vs. the Ravens a plus for him. The Lions may have no choice but to air it out vs. the Ravens, and if they do, St. Brown is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He has the top ceiling projection on the slate among the non-quarterbacks.

Derrick Henry rounds out this tier, and The Big Dog still has some bite. He was an absolute monster vs. the Bills in Week 1, turning 18 carries into 169 yards and two touchdowns. He did have a late fumble that aided the Bills in their comeback, but it was still a vintage Henry performance for fantasy purposes.

Unfortunately, Henry followed that up with a disastrous performance vs. the Browns. Everything that could’ve gone wrong in that game did for Henry. He had another fumble, and he wasn’t particularly efficient with his opportunities. The game also turned into a blowout, which limited his volume. Overall, he finished with 23 scoreless yards and zero catches.

Henry’s lack of production as a receiver gives him a significantly lower floor than most of the other top runners in fantasy. In weeks where he doesn’t score a touchdown or two, he doesn’t have the four or five receptions to fall back on. He needs to dominate on the ground, and if he doesn’t, it can lead to some massive busts.

This doesn’t appear to be a great Henry spot on paper. The Lions have been significantly better against the run than the pass to start the year, ranking third in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they were fourth in that department last year.

Ultimately, Henry is best used as a pivot in lineups where you’re fading Jackson. The two players have a slightly negative correlation, so one tends to succeed when the other fails. It’s a big reason why Henry is popping as a contrarian Captain choice in Sim Labs. No player on the slate has a larger discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate at the top spot.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Jared Goff headlines the midrange, and when he’s at his best, he can put up numbers with the best quarterbacks in fantasy. Just look at last week. He completed 23 of 28 passes for 323 yards and five touchdowns, resulting in 36.96 DraftKings points. It was enough to make him the top scorer at the position for the week.

When the Lions’ offense is humming, Goff looks like a point guard in a really good NBA offense. He has a ton of playmakers around him; he just has to get the ball in their hands.

The Ravens can be prone to surrendering big games to opposing quarterbacks. Allen absolutely shredded them in Week 1, passing for more than 250 yards in the fourth quarter alone. While Goff certainly isn’t Allen, the Ravens allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season. It’s a spot where he can have some success, and he trails only Jackson in terms of median and ceiling projection.

If the first two weeks are any indication, Zay Flowers could be poised for a monster year. He’s had some of the most elite WR usage in the entire league, racking up 42% of his team’s targets. He’s been at 37% or greater in each of the first two weeks, including a massive 50% mark in Week 1 vs. the Bills.

Flowers was also the team’s clear top option last season, though he had a more modest 26% target share. Still, this is one of the cheapest alpha receivers in the entire league, and he’s playing for one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football.

Flowers ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he makes for a logical pairing with his star quarterback. The two players don’t have the greatest correlation – Jackson derives much of his value from his legs – but they should still link up on a number of occasions.

There was some concern about what Jameson Williams’ role would look like this season, but he remains an every-down receiver for the Lions. He’s the team’s clear big-play threat at the position. While he’s handled just 14% of the targets in back-to-back weeks, he’s accounted for 37% of their air yards. That includes a 47% air yards share last week vs. the Bears.

That makes Williams a high-risk, high-reward type of option. When he comes down with a reception, it’s going to result in some massive splash plays. That was the case last week, when he caught just two passes but finished with 108 yards and a score. When he doesn’t hit on a big play, he has plenty of bust potential.

He’s an ideal stacking partner with Goff, with the two players having a +0.63 correlation. When Williams does go off, he tends to bring his quarterback with him.

David Montgomery is another high-risk, high-reward type of option on this slate. That isn’t typically the case. Montgomery is locked into around 50% of the carries for one of the best offenses in football, and he gets plenty of scoring opportunities. He had a touchdown in Week 2, and he had 12 scores in 14 games last year.

However, the matchup vs. the Ravens complicates things. The Lions are underdogs, which means the team could be forced to pass the ball more than usual. If that’s the case, this game would seem to suit Gibbs better than Montgomery. He’s still definitely a threat for a cheap touchdown, but he carries more risk than usual.

Sam LaPorta rounds out this price range, and he put together a fantastic rookie season in 2023. Unfortunately, he was unable to duplicate it in 2024. The Lions’ passing volume was down in general, and LaPorta also saw a smaller piece of the pie. His target share dipped from 22% to 16%, and he saw small reductions in air yards share and end zone share as well.

Where does that leave LaPorta for 2025? It’s too early to tell. His overall 19% target share is smack dab in the middle, but it doesn’t tell the full story. He was at a 22% mark in Week 1 before dipping to 14% last week. He’s also yet to amass an endzone target.

Still, this is a pretty cheap price tag. He’s down to just $5,400 on DraftKings despite starting the year at $7,000. It makes him a solid buy-low option, and he grades out pretty well in our projections.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Given the massive total in this contest, it’s no surprise that the kickers are grading out as the better options of the bunch. However, the Ravens Defense is popping as undervalued in Sim Labs. They have a 15% optimal lineup rate compared to 11.1% projected ownership, which is the largest differential on the entire slate.
• DeAndre Hopkins ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – The Ravens added Hopkins to their receiving corps this offseason, and he’s scored a touchdown in each of the first two weeks. However, his underlying utilization numbers leave a lot to be desired. He has just a 9% target share overall, while he’s been on the field for just 35% of the team’s passing plays. He’s overpriced at the moment.
• Mark Andrews ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – It has been a brutal start to the year for Andrews, but it’s too early to give up on him entirely. The team is still without Isaiah Likely, leaving Andrews as their clear top tight end. He has a 76% route participation through two weeks, so there’s definitely the potential for him to be more involved vs. Detroit. He ranks fifth on the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.
• Rashod Bateman ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Bateman hasn’t had the same production as Hopkins to start the year, but he stands out as the clear WR2 in Baltimore. He’s been on the field significantly more, including an 86% route participation in Week 1 vs. the Bills. He’s also had a much better target share (16%), so he simply shouldn’t be cheaper than Hopkins.
• Justice Hill ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Hill is the Ravens’ backup RB and is a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield. That’s enough to give him some appeal at a cheap price tag.
• Kalif Raymond ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Raymond operated as the Lions’ clear No. 3 receiver in Week 1, but he lost some ground in Week 2. His route participation dipped to just 45%, while he had a paltry 4% target share. Don’t be surprised if he takes another step back in Week 3.
• Isaac TeSlaa ($1,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – TeSlaa is the guy who is rising in the Lions’ passing attack. The talented rookie dominated the preseason, and he had one of the best touchdown catches in Week 1. That earned him more playing time in Week 2, and he hauled in another 29-yard reception. His snaps and routes should continue to increase, making him a very intriguing option at a minimal salary.
• Charlie Kolar ($600 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Kolar is the No. 2 TE for the Ravens with Likely sidelined, and he has a 44% route participation through two weeks. He’s yet to see a target, but that could change vs. Detroit.

Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn