NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Lions vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football (10/12)

NFL Week 6 features a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions in a battle between the top seeds in each conference last year. The Chiefs are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at a massive 52.5 points.

The Lions got off to a rough start this season, dropping a divisional game vs. the Packers in Week 1. However, they’ve rebounded to win four straight games, and their offense has been just fine despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson this offseason. They’re first in the league in points and sixth in yardage, and they’ve scored at least 34 points in four straight games.

Things haven’t gone quite as well for the Chiefs. They’re currently sitting at just 2-3 after dropping a game vs. the Jaguars in Week 5. Still, they have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid at head coach, and that duo has made it to the AFC Championship in seven straight seasons. Maybe this is the year that streak comes to an end, but they’ve certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs is the most expensive player in this contest, and he’s off to another solid start this season. He’s currently sitting at RB6 in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s scored at least 15.0 DraftKings points in all five contests. However, we’ve only seen one true ceiling game from Gibbs. He had 26.9 DraftKings points vs. the Ravens in Week 3, but he’s had below 20 in each of his other outings.

Gibbs needs to be efficient to hit his ceiling, since he doesn’t typically get the same volume as other top fantasy running backs. He’s part of a two-man committee in Detroit, so he’s played on just 60% of the team’s snaps and handled just 49% of their designed rushing attempts. Those figures rank 20th and 29th, respectively, at the RB position.

Gibbs does make up for it with his work as a pass catcher. He’s not truly elite in that department, but his 17% target share is the fourth-best mark at the position. He trails only Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, and Bijan Robinson, who are three of the best running backs in fantasy. Gibbs also brings plenty of touchdown upside to the table. He has four touchdowns this season after scoring a league-best 20 in 2024.

Gibbs gets a fantastic matchup this week vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City has been a massive run funnel this season, ranking 10th in pass defense EPA and 31st against the run. Detroit is already a run-heavy offense, and they could lean even more on their rushing attack in this contest.

Gibbs stands out as one of the more undervalued Captain options in Sim Labs. He has the largest gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, making him a strong choice for the top spot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the other stud for the Lions, and he’s been fantastic to start the year. He’s the No. 2 receiver in terms of PPR points per game, trailing only Puka Nacua.

However, it’s fair to wonder if St. Brown is going to be that good all season. His production has been buoyed by six receiving touchdowns, which is the top mark in football. His 30% target share is fantastic, but he’s doing it for an offense that doesn’t throw the ball a ton. Overall, he’s averaged just over eight targets per game, which ranks 18th in the league. He’s obviously a very good player; he just might not be a high-end fantasy WR1 all year.

St. Brown carries a bit of risk in this matchup vs. the Chiefs. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and the Lions receivers have the worst Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate, excluding the defenses.

Ultimately, St. Brown is showing up as over-owned in Sim Labs both as a Captain and in the FLEX spots. That makes him an interesting fade candidate.

The same cannot be said for Patrick Mahomes. While the Chiefs have been up and down this season, it’s been a bit of a resurgence for Mahomes from a fantasy standpoint. He’s averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game through the first five weeks, which trails only Josh Allen at the position. Mahomes has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games, and he’s had at least 26.02 DraftKings points in three of them.

Mahomes is using his legs more often than we’ve seen in previous years. He’s averaging 5.6 carries per game this season, which is up from 3.6 last year. As a result, his average of 38.0 rushing yards per game would represent a new career high.

Mahomes has also done plenty of work with his arm, especially after getting his top receiver back in the lineup in Week 4. He threw for four touchdowns two weeks ago, and he followed that up with his first 300-yard game of the season in Week 5.

The Lions defense has been improved to start the year, but it heads into this contest with some key injuries in the secondary. They’re down their top two perimeter corners in Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, while backup corner Avonte Maddox has also been ruled out. Both starting safeties are listed as questionable, though there is optimism that both will be able to suit up.

Regardless, facing Mahomes is never easy, and doing it at less than 100% is a potential recipe for disaster. Mahomes leads the slate in most projection categories, including median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus. He simply should not be priced at $10,000 with the way he’s played to start the year.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

You have to feel good for Jared Goff. He was jettisoned from the Rams after his play had slipped, and most people wrote him off in Detroit. If he couldn’t flourish under offensive guru Sean McVay, how was he going to survive without him?

Instead, Goff has blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in football. He has been uber-efficient to start the year, completing more than 75% of his passes with a league-high 12 touchdown passes. He’s averaged 9.22 adjusted yards per attempt, which is the third-best mark in the league.

However, Goff doesn’t typically throw enough to post huge fantasy totals. He’s attempted 28 passes or fewer in four straight games, including just 23 in his last outing. He’s displayed a wide range of outcomes over that stretch, finishing with as many as 36.96 DraftKings points and as few as 12.68.

The matchup vs. the Chiefs will likely put Goff closer to the bottom of that range Sunday night. Not only has Kansas City been excellent against the pass this season, but Goff has some drastic home/road splits. He’s historically been much worse when playing outside of Detroit, especially when playing in an outdoor stadium. Since joining the Lions, he’s averaged just 15.2 DraftKings points on the road compared to 21.46 when playing at home (per the Trends tool). That’s one of the largest gaps you’ll see.

Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver, at least until Rashee Rice eventually returns from suspension. He’s been limited to a 76% route participation in his first two games back, but he’s racked up a target on 25% of his routes run. He’s also seen 41% of the team’s air yards, and he’s handled three rushing attempts in those contests.

That gives him a much more valuable workload than his $9,000 price tag suggests. Worthy has yet to find the paint this season, but when he does, he has the potential to deliver massive value.

Additionally, Worthy has a +0.37 correlation with Mahomes, which is easily the top mark for the stud quarterback. It makes him a clear-cut stacking partner.

Just when it looked like it was safe to write off Travis Kelce, he bounced back with his best performance of the year. He had a season-high eight targets, which he converted into seven catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown.

The question is, was that a fluke or a sign of things to come? His underlying metrics are not particularly rosy. He has just an 18% target share since Worthy returned to the lineup, and he’s handled just 8% of the team’s air yards. Kelce also isn’t an every-down player, so it’s possible his production in Week 5 ends up being an aberration.

Sam LaPorta checks a lot of the same boxes as Kelce, with the big exception being the one labeled “is engaged to Taylor Swift.” LaPorta is significantly younger and theoretically in the prime of his career, but he has to deal with an inconsistent role in the passing attack. He broke out with 20.2 DraftKings points in Week 5, but he saw four targets or fewer in each of his three previous games.

Ultimately, LaPorta’s target share sits at 20% for the year, and he needs a touchdown to potentially pay off his current salary. He’s a much stronger choice on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating.

David Montgomery is the other half of Detroit’s elite RB tandem. While he’s not quite as explosive as Gibbs, he’s developed into an excellent grinder in between the tackles. He’s just behind Gibbs with 43% of the team’s carries for the year, and he’s added four touchdowns. Montgomery has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, but the lone exception was an absolute clunker (1.2 DraftKings points vs. the Browns).

Given the matchup, it’s reasonable to expect some success from Montgomery in this spot. However, the Lions are underdogs, so it does come with some risk. If they fall behind the Chiefs, it could end up scripting him out of the game. Montgomery still has an average Plus/Minus of +2.91 as an underdog as a member of the Lions, but he carries a bit more downside than usual.

Jameson Williams is the definition of a “boom-or-bust” receiver. His role can be volatile from week to week, with Williams garnering just a 15% target share for the year. However, he has a massive 19.9 Average Depth of Target (aDOT), so he’s always a threat to turn one opportunity into a huge play. Williams already has a game with more than 100 yards and a touchdown on just two catches this season, so that’s the type of explosiveness he brings to the table.

Williams makes the most sense in lineups where you’re pairing him with his quarterback. He and Goff have an elite +0.63 correlation, which makes a ton of sense. When Williams does pop off for a big play, his quarterback is going to benefit as well.

Hollywood Brown served as the Chiefs’ top receiver while Worthy was sidelined, but his role has taken a significant hit over the past two weeks. He’s posted a meager 57% route participation, so he’s far from an every-down player.

The good news is that Brown has maintained decent involvement when he’s actually on the field. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run in those contests, good for an 18% target share overall. It’s enough to keep him fantasy relevant at a pretty reasonable price tag.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers have the best projected Plus/Minus marks of the group, and both are also popping as undervalued in Sim Labs.
• Kareem Hunt ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – The Chiefs have had virtually no run game to speak of this season, but Hunt is at least getting the goal-line looks. He has 68% of the team’s short-yardage opportunities, and he’s handled 83% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. That gives him the clear edge in this backfield.
• Tyquan Thornton ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Thornton has evolved into the Chiefs’ version of Jameson Williams. His aDOT sits at a ridiculous 25.0 yards, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to pop for a big play. He’s maintained a decent role in the offense despite Worthy’s return, posting a 50% route participation and 13% target share in Week 5.
• Isiah Pacheco ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – Pacheco has gotten the majority of snaps and carries in the Chiefs’ backfield this season, but he’s done very little with them. He’s yet to score a rushing touchdown this season, and he doesn’t provide much as a receiver. Still, he doesn’t need to do much to potentially pay off his DraftKings salary.
• Brashard Smith ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – The “fantasy bros” on Twitter desperately want Smith to be a thing, but I’m just not seeing it personally. He played on just 8% of the team’s snaps last week, though he did manage at least three targets for the second-straight contest.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster has been the Chiefs’ No. 2 receiver from a route participation standpoint. He’s been at 72% over the past two weeks, though it’s resulted in just an 11% target share. Still, the fact that he’s on the field at least gives him some opportunities.
• Isaac TeSlaa ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – TeSlaa got to a season-high 54% route participation last week, and he responded with his second touchdown catch of the year. That was his only target in that contest, but if Kalif Raymond (questionable) is out or limited, he could be looking at another expanded workload. The talent is there with TeSlaa, it’s simply a matter of opportunities.
• Brock Wright ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Wright is the Lions’ TE2, but he’s failed to earn a target in three of five games. We’ve seen him vulture a touchdown in the past, though.
• Noah Gray ($1,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Gray is the preferred punt TE in this contest. He’s on the field more than Wright, and he’s been a more consistent target-earner.

Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck