NFL Week 15 gets underway with an NFC South showdown. The Atlanta Falcons will travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the Bucs listed as five-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 44.5 points.
Tampa Bay got off to an impressive start this season, but they’ve dropped four of their past five games. That includes an embarrassing home loss to the Saints last week, bringing them to 7-6 for the year. That puts them in a tie for first atop the division standings with the Panthers, and those two squads will meet two times over the final three weeks. It goes without saying that the winner of those contests will likely be the one going to the playoffs.
The Falcons were hopeful to be in playoff contention this season, and they were 3-2 through their first five games. Unfortunately, they’ve lost seven of their past eight, dropping them to a disappointing 4-9. Michael Penix Jr. is out for the rest of the season, while top receiver Drake London will miss his fourth consecutive game.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Bijan Robinson entered this season as the consensus top running back in most fantasy football drafts. He hasn’t been quite that good this season, but he’s still put together an excellent year. He’s racked up more than 1,000 rushing yards through his first 13 games, and he’s added 56 receptions for 602 yards as a receiver. Overall, he’s fifth at the position in terms of PPR points per game.
The only thing holding Robinson back from true superstardom is Tyler Allgeier. He continues to be a clear thorn in Robinson’s side. Robinson has garnered 63% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, which ranks merely 15th at the position. The biggest problem is where Robinson is losing touches. He’s had just 44% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, while Allgeier leads the team at 56%.
Robinson erases some of those concerns with his work as a pass-catcher, but it has clearly impacted him from a touchdown standpoint. He has just seven scores this season, and four of them have come from at least 10 yards out. Two of them have come from 50+, so Robinson is having to do most of the damage himself. He’s not benefiting from the “easy” touchdowns that a lot of other running backs do.
Robinson is also trending downward. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, and he had just 10.4 DraftKings points vs. a tough Seahawks’ defense last week. Things should be a bit easier for him vs. the Buccaneers. They’ve been tough to run against this season – they’re fourth in rush defense EPA – but they’ve allowed a ton of receiving production to opposing RBs. As a result, they’ve allowed the 13th-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, so it’s a decent matchup for Robinson to get back on track.
Robinson stands out as the clear No. 1 option on this slate. His optimal captain rate checks in at more than 30% in Sim Labs, and he’s also No. 1 at the flex spot. He also ranks first in median projection, while he’s No. 2 in projected ceiling.
Bucky Irving is the other stud RB in this matchup, and he’s played in the team’s past two games after spending most of the year on IR. The team has taken things pretty easy on Irving in those outings, limiting him to just 52% of their offensive snaps.
Irving still managed to rack up 79% of the team’s rushing attempts in his first game back, but that figure dipped to just 45% last week. That’s a bit alarming, though Irving did manage to find the paint for the second straight week. He’s scored exactly 16.1 DraftKings points in both contests, so he’s still managed to be productive when he’s been on the field.
Still, it’s hard to get too excited about Irving at this price tag when he’s splitting work with two additional running backs. He checks in with the worst projections in the stud tier by a pretty comfortable margin.
If you are going to use Irving, you might be best doing so as a contrarian Captain. He has the second-largest discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal rate, while he’s expected to be extremely overowned in the flex spot. There’s always a chance that Irving reverts to bell-cow usage in this matchup, especially with the Bucs listed as moderate favorites. That gives him some upside to exceed his modest projections.
Baker Mayfield rounds out this price range, and he has also put together some scary performances recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, including three straight. He’s completed less than 50% of his passes in two of his past three outings, and he has just three touchdowns compared to three interceptions over that time frame.
The good news is that Mayfield will have his full complement of receivers at his disposal for the first time in ages in Week 15. This is also a matchup where Mayfield has had a ton of success. He’s gone for more than 20 DraftKings points in four straight vs. the Falcons, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.18 in five meetings as a member of the Buccaneers (per the Trends tool).
Mayfield leads the slate with a +1.9 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s historically fared better at home than on the road since joining Tampa Bay. Ultimately, it’s an excellent spot for Mayfield to get right. He has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Figuring out how to approach the Buccaneers’ top three receivers will be a huge X-factor on this slate. Mike Evans will suit up for the first time since Week 7, and this will be the first time this season that Evans and Chris Godwin will be in the lineup at the same time.
However, rookie Emeka Egbuka has emerged as the team’s top pass catcher in 2025-26. He leads the team with a 27% target share, and he produced big numbers to start the year.
Unfortunately, he’s seemingly hit the rookie wall. He’s scored single-digit PPR points in four straight games, and he’s averaged just 6.7 PPR points over that time frame.
The positive note for Egbuka is that he’s still posted a 32% target share in those four contests. He remains the team’s No. 1 option from a utilization standpoint, even if the results haven’t followed. His production has simply slumped alongside his starting quarterback, which is not surprising given their +0.78 correlation. It makes him the safest option of this trio, especially when stacked with Mayfield.
Evans is more of a wild card. We certainly know what he’s capable of when healthy. He’s posted 1,000+ receiving yards in 11 straight seasons to start his career, though that streak will ultimately come to an end this year. He’s also had double-digit touchdowns in six of them. When he was healthy this season, he was still the clear-cut No. 1 option for Mayfield: he had a 29% target share across his three full games.
The big question is – how healthy is Evans currently? He only had his 21-day practice window open last week, so it’s possible the Bucs ease him into the rotation. Godwin had just a 42% route participation in his first game back off IR, so it’s possible that the Buccaneers take a similar approach with Evans in his return. He could still be a featured option – especially around the goal line – but he seems overpriced at $9,000 on DraftKings.
Speaking of Godwin, he’s had his activity ramped up in recent weeks. He’s coming off an 86% route participation in Week 14, and he responded with a season-high 27% target share. Most of Godwin’s damage is being done around the line of scrimmage – his 9.4 Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is easily the lowest of this trio – but he’s gotten to double-digit PPR points in back-to-back games.
With Penix on the sidelines, Kirk Cousins has taken over as the Falcons’ starting quarterback. Unfortunately, Kirko Chainz doesn’t have the same magic that he once did. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all four of his starts this season, and he’s scored 13.36 DraftKings points or fewer in three of them. That gives him a pretty low ceiling as far as quarterbacks go.
That said, perhaps a matchup vs. the Buccaneers can change things. Cousins absolutely torched the Bucs in two matchups last year, racking up 28.64 and 38.36 DraftKings points. The Buccaneers have also allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season. It doesn’t seem like Cousins has much left in his right arm, but expect to see whatever the best version of him is on Thursday night.
Cousins will lean on Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney as his top pass-catchers with London currently out of the picture. Well, at least that will hopefully be the case. Pitts is officially questionable with a knee injury, and he’s been limited at practice each day to start the week. He’s tentatively expected to go, but we’ll need to monitor the inactives before kickoff.
If Pitts is out there, expect him to serve as the team’s de facto No. 1 option. He’s posted a massive 28% target share over the team’s past three games, including a 33% mark last week. He’s responded with at least 15.0 DraftKings points in two straight, despite the fact that he hasn’t found the end zone.
Pitts’ price tag has also dipped significantly for this matchup. He was priced as high as $8,000 two weeks ago, but he’s down to just $6,400 vs. the Buccaneers. That makes him one of the best values of the day, and he ranks third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Mooney is a bit more expensive than Pitts, and that’s pretty tough to justify. He has just a 15% target share over the past three games with Cousins. He’s also seen a reduction in air yards share in each subsequent contest, dipping from 43% in Week 12 to just 21% last week.
However, Mooney has still been on the field for 93% of the team’s pass plays during that stretch, and he displayed nice chemistry with Cousins last year. That gives him some buy-low appeal.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers lead the way in terms of projected Plus/Minus, while the Falcons Defense is showing up as the most undervalued in Sim Labs.
- Rachaad White ($4,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – White has lost significant value with Irving returning to the lineup, but he’s still working in as the team’s third-down back. He’s played on 77% of the long-down-and-distance snaps over the past two weeks, which gives him some upside as a pass-catcher. He also had 33% of the team’s rushing attempts last week, so he still has some fantasy viability.
- Tyler Allgeier ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – As detailed above, Allgeier is always a threat to steal a touchdown or two from Robinson around the goal line. He actually has more touchdowns than the Falcons’ starting RB this season, and he’s also had double-digit carries in three of his past five games. He is a very real threat at his current price tag.
- Jalen McMillan ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Evans isn’t the only receiver expected to return for the Bucs this week. McMillan is expected to suit up for the first time all year, though how much he’ll play is still TBD. He was impressive down the stretch for the Bucs last year, but he should operate as the clear No. 4 option at the position on Thursday. That probably won’t lead to a ton of opportunities.
- David Sills ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) – With London out of the picture, the team has had to turn to some unknown commodities at receiver. That includes Sills. He’s racked up an 85% route participation over the past three weeks, and he’s had target shares of 15%, 13%, and 15% in those outings. He was up to a 97% route participation last week, and $3,000 is a really cheap price tag for a nearly every-snap player.
- Sean Tucker ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Tucker has seen 16% of the snaps or fewer in both games since Irving returned, but he was still slightly involved last week. He had a 22% carry share, and he had 100% of the opportunities from inside the five-yard line. That makes him a potential candidate to vulture a touchdown.
- Dylan Drummond ($2,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Drummond has also seen an uptick in snaps at receiver for the Falcons. He’s not quite as involved as Sills on a down-to-down basis, but he had a 69% route participation and 19% target share last week. He actually has better projections at a slightly cheaper price tag, and he’s first on the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.
- Payne Durham ($600 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – It’s not all good news for the Bucs from an injury standpoint. Cade Otton is not expected to suit up, leaving Durham as the team’s likely No. 1 tight end. He’s played in all 13 games this season, yet he has just three targets and one grab. He should see a significant uptick in volume on Thursday, but there’s no guarantee that it leads to anything as a pass-catcher.
Pictured: Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: Imagn
