NFL Week 15 wraps up with a bit of a dud. The Miami Dolphins will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, with the Steelers listed as three-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 42.5 points.
Pittsburgh enters this game with a slim lead in the AFC North. They’re currently a half-game up on the Ravens, and they picked up a big head-to-head win over Baltimore last week. The two teams will meet once again in Week 18, and that game will likely have a huge impact on who wins the division. As of right now, The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator gives the Steelers a 56% chance to win the division, while Baltimore sits right behind at 44%.
The Dolphins have very little chance of making the playoffs, but they enter this game playing their best football of the year. They’ve won five of their past six games and four straight, and they have an impressive win over the Bills during that stretch.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game doesn’t feature a ton of high-end stud talent, but the stud options we do have come exclusively from the Dolphins. That starts with running back De’Von Achane. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy this season, averaging 20.9 PPR points per game. That’s the fifth-best mark at the running back position.
Achane was limited to just 22 snaps last week vs. the Jets before exiting with a rib injury, but he was dominant when he was on the field. He had seven carries for 92 yards and a touchdown, and he added one reception for 13 yards. He ultimately finished with 17.5 DraftKings points, and he could’ve had a huge day if not for the injury. The Dolphins’ backup RBs added 124 rushing yards and two scores in his absence, and that production could’ve easily gone to Achane had he been available.
Before last week, Achane had posted a positive Plus/Minus and at least 22.4 DraftKings points in three straight games. He also erupted for 43.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bills, giving one an elite ceiling. Achane’s calling card is his work in the passing game. He has a 21% target share for the year, which trails only Christian McCaffrey at the position. He’s also averaged an outstanding 5.8 yards per carry, so he’s done plenty of damage on the ground and through the air.
The Steelers stand out as a solid matchup for Achane. They haven’t surrendered many fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, but that seems a bit fluky. They’ve allowed just 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game to the position, which is tied for the third-lowest mark in the league. However, they’re merely 28th in rush defense EPA and rank in the bottom 20 in both yards and points allowed per game. There’s no reason why they should be good at keeping backs out of the end zone, so that feels like a small sample anomaly.
Achane stands out as the clear-cut top target on this slate. He has the highest optimal lineup rate at both Captain and Flex (per Sim Labs), and the gap at the top spot is particularly large. His optimal Captain rate checks in just below 25%, and no other player is above 11.7%. On a slate with minimal high-end options, eating the chalk with Achane is very reasonable.
Jaylen Waddle is the other stud option for Miami, and he’s been the team’s top receiver since losing Tyreek Hill to a season-ending injury. He’s posted a 27% target share from Week 5 on, and he’s been at 30% or higher in each of his past four outings.
That said, the increased volume hasn’t necessarily led to a bunch of fantasy production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his past seven outings, with the Dolphins doing most of their damage on the ground. He’s also displayed virtually no ceiling, with just two games above 20 DraftKings points for the year. One of those just barely qualified (20.9), so it’s tough to justify Waddle as a true stud receiver.
The matchup is the saving grace for Waddle on Monday. The Steelers have been extremely vulnerable against opposing receivers this season, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to the position. It remains to be seen if the Dolphins can take advantage of that, but their passing attack does have a bit more upside than usual.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Tua Tagovailoa will be responsible for manning the Dolphins’ offense in this contest. He led the league in passing yards just two years ago, but he looks like a completely different quarterback in 2025-26. He’s down to just 185.2 passing yards per game, and he has just 18 touchdown passes to 14 interceptions. He provides almost nothing with his legs, so he has unsurprisingly struggled from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged just 12.2 fantasy points per game, which puts him outside the top 30 at the position.
Tagovailoa has strictly been a game manager during the Dolphins’ recent win streak. He’s scored single-digit DraftKings points in six of his past eight outings, and he’s attempted 23 passes or fewer in each of their past four wins. He might be asked to do a bit more Monday vs. the Steelers, but expect the Dolphins to lean on their running game as much as possible.
That’s particularly true given the elements. It is expected to be below 20 degrees at kickoff, and Tagovailoa has an awful track record in cold-weather games. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -3.41 in six career games at colder than 40 degrees (per the Trends tool).
The rest of the conditions in Pittsburgh don’t look too bad – minimal winds and chance of precipitation – but Tagovailoa still feels extremely risky in this environment.
Aaron Rodgers will be at the helm for the Steelers, and he’s had a better year than expected in Pittsburgh. Rodgers is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime. He’s getting the ball out of his hands extremely quickly, and no one is averaging fewer air yards per attempt. However, Rodgers has still shown the ability to put up stats from time to time. He did exactly that last week vs. the Ravens, finishing with 21.46 DraftKings points. Those games have been few and far between, but it at least gives him a bit of upside.
Rodgers stands out as one of the strongest options on this slate. The matchup vs. the Dolphins is decent, with Miami ranking 23rd in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and Rodgers has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models.
DK Metcalf is Rodgers’ top pass-catcher, so pairing the two together feels pretty natural. It’s not all that surprising that Metcalf also had one of his best games of the season last week. He racked up 12 targets vs. the Ravens, which he converted into seven catches for 148 yards. Metcalf didn’t manage to find the paint, but he did have four targets in the red zone.
Metcalf leads the team with a 24% target share this season, but he was up to 38% in his last outing. He has at least eight targets in three of his past four games, so he should see plenty of opportunities to make plays vs. the Dolphins. He has the third-highest optimal rate at Captain on this slate, trailing only Achane and Waddle.
The Steelers’ RB situation will be interesting to monitor heading into this contest. Jaylen Warren has served as the team’s top option this season, but he was a late addition to the injury report with an illness and is officially listed as questionable. It’s hard to imagine him sitting out, but this game also doesn’t mean a ton to Pittsburgh. As long as Baltimore doesn’t win out, the Steelers just need to beat them in Week 18 to make it to the postseason.
If Warren is good to go, expect him to be the team’s lead runner once again. That said, Warren is far from a bell-cow. He’s handled just 54% of the team’s rushing attempts over their past three games, and he’s not a huge factor in the passing game. He did manage to record a receiving touchdown last week, but that’s not a huge part of his skill set overall.
It makes Kenneth Gainwell the superior option regardless of Warren’s status. He has just a 28% carry share over the past three weeks, but he makes up for it with his work as a receiver. He’s racked up an 18% target share over his past three outings, and he’s at 15% for the year. That’s tied with Ashton Jeanty for the fifth-best mark in football.
It gives Gainwell a higher ceiling in the team’s backfield. He’s had at least 16.2 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, while Warren has been at 15.2 or fewer in five straight. Add in the fact that Gainwell is -$2,000 cheaper, and he’s the clear top choice.
That said, playing both together isn’t the worst idea in the world. The two guys do have a correlation of -0.34, so it’s definitely a risky strategy. However, there is certainly a world where both guys provide value in the same contest. That pairing shouldn’t command a ton of ownership, so it’s an interesting way to attack the Steelers.
Jaylen Wright had a massive performance after Achane exited last week. He finished with 24 carries, which he converted into 107 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately, Wright has basically been unable to get on the field with Achane healthy. He had just six snaps the week prior and just one the game before that. He’s been priced up way too aggressively with Achane healthy, so he can pretty safely be avoided.
Malik Washington rounds out this price range, and he’s stepped up as the Dolphins’ No. 2 receiver with Hill sidelined. He’s posted a 66% route participation since Week 5, and he’s had a target share of at least 20% in back-to-back games.
That said, that hasn’t really mattered for fantasy purposes. The Dolphins haven’t thrown the ball enough to support one receiver, let alone two. Add in the cold-weather trends for Tua, and it’s hard to get excited about Washington at this price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Chris Boswell has the best projected Plus/Minus and optimal lineup rate of the quartet, but he’s also projected for the most ownership.
- Ollie Gordon ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Gordon also managed to find the end zone last week after Achane departed. That said, his involvement was otherwise pretty minimal. It’s possible that he’s fallen behind Wright in the pecking order, and he offers minimal upside even if he hasn’t.
- Darren Waller ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Waller had two strong showings in his first two games with the Dolphins, but he hasn’t done much since. However, he’s still operating as the Dolphins’ No. 1 tight end, which could pay dividends vs. the Steelers. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position.
- Calvin Austin ($3,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) – Austin has been the Steelers’ No. 2 option in the passing game for most of the year, but his route participation fell below 50% last week. He’s at 48% with an 8% target share over his past four games, so his role in the offense is shrinking.
- Adam Thielen ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Thielen posted a 31% in his first game with the Steelers, despite not having much time to prepare. Some team insiders believe he will be more involved in his second outing, so he’s an interesting option at a pretty reasonable price tag.
- Pat Freiermuth ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs this season, so the Steelers’ trio of tight ends all have some appeal on this slate. Knowing which one to pick is difficult, but Freiermuth had the most routes among the trio last week.
- Jonnu Smith ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Smith leads the Steelers’ TE group in target share for the year, but his numbers have shrunk in recent weeks. He had just a 34% route participation last week, and he finished with just one target.
- Darnell Washington ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Washington leads this group in targets per route run (20%), though his opportunities can vary wildly by week. He had an 80% route participation in Week 13, but that dipped to just 29% last week. Still, he has the top projected Plus/Minus among the Steelers’ TEs in this contest.
- Greg Dulcich ($1,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Dulcich benefits from the same matchup as Waller, and he’s gotten more involved in recent weeks. He had a 59% route participation and 15% target share last week, both of which were identical to Waller. He’s an excellent punt play at just $1,600 on DraftKings.
Pictured: Jaylen Waddle
Photo Credit: Imagn
