NFL Week 11 wraps up with a matchup between two storied franchises. The Dallas Cowboys will travel to Sin City to take on the Raiders, and they’re currently listed as 3.5-point road favorites. There’s expected to be plenty of offense in this matchup, with the total currently sitting at 50.5 points.
Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive this season. The Cowboys have had no issues on offense. They’re third in the league in both points and yards per game, but they’re 31st in both categories on defense. If only they had an elite pass-rusher to stabilize things on that side of the ball.
On the other side, the Raiders have been a mess everywhere. Their offense is bottom three in both points and yards per game, while their defense has been just slightly better. They at least have some blue-chip young talent on their roster, but it’s led to just two wins through their first nine games.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
CeeDee Lamb has been limited to just five full games this season due to injury, but he’s been a stud when he’s been available. He’s averaged 18.1 PPR points per game in those contests, and he’s been the team’s clear leader from a target standpoint.
Since returning to the lineup three games ago, Lamb has racked up 30 total targets. That’s good for a 30% target share overall. He had a 29% target share in his first two outings, and he’s seen double-digit targets in four of five contests. The Cowboys have more receiving talent around Lamb than in years past, but he’s still the unquestioned alpha in this passing attack.
Lamb is coming off back-to-back games with a negative Plus/Minus, but he’s still had at least 10 targets, seven receptions, and 74 yards in both outings. He simply hasn’t found the end zone, which could change vs. the Raiders. They rank 21st in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to the position.
Lamb has the second-highest median projection on the slate, and he has the top ceiling among the non-quarterbacks. However, he doesn’t grade out particularly well in Sim Labs. His projected ownership exceeds his optimal lineup rate at both the Captain and Flex spots, so he could be a bit overvalued.
Dak Prescott will be responsible for getting the ball to Lamb and the rest of the team’s playmakers. He’s done a great job of that for most of the year. He leads the league in ESPN’s QBR, and he’s 10th at the position in fantasy points per game.
However, Prescott has hit a bit of a slump recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, including less than 10 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Broncos. Before that, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus five times in a six-game stretch, scoring at least 22.34 DraftKings points in all five contests.
While the Broncos have one of the best defenses in football, the Raiders should be a much friendlier opponent. Prescott will also take the field as a favorite, which is a split where he’s historically thrived. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.96 in that split, compared to a -3.00 mark as an underdog (per the Trends tool). Prescott typically fares better at home than on the road, but he should still be able to post solid numbers in this matchup.
Prescott leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection, and he has the top optimal lineup rate in the Flex Spot. He’s not quite as appealing as a Captain’s choice (3.3% optimal rate), but he’s a strong option overall.
Ashton Jeanty was the No. 4 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he was expected to be the next great NFL running back. That still might be the case, but it has been tough sledding for Jeanty in his rookie season.
He’s playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He’s averaging just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt, which is easily the worst mark in the league among high-volume runners. The Raiders also have the eighth-worst run block grade from PFF, while they rank 18th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate.
Jeanty has ultimately had to do a lot of the work himself, and he’s done a pretty good job. He’s third in the league in broken tackles, and he ranks tied for 19th in yards after contact per attempt.
Jeanty’s best fantasy attribute at the moment is his volume. He’s been a true workhorse back, playing on 74% of the team’s snaps and handling 72% of their designed rushing attempts. He also has an 11% target share for the year, and he’s gotten more involved as a pass-catcher recently. Since Week 5, his target share is up to a much healthier 16%.
That has led to a nice uptick in fantasy production. He’s scored at least 15.3 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, including a ceiling game of 37.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bears.
Jeanty gets one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Cowboys, who have been a goldmine for opposing offenses. They’re 29th in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Jeanty’s +1.5 Opponent Plus/Minus is easily the best mark in the stud tier, and he has the top optimal Captain rate on the entire slate.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Javonte Williams is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the year in his last outing, but it was far from his fault. He turned his 15 carries into 83 yards, good for an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. However, he didn’t catch a single pass, and his workload was ultimately impacted by the game turning into a blowout.
Williams has still been one of the biggest positive surprises of the year for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged the ninth-most PPR points per game at the position, so he’s massively exceeded expectations. He was expected to serve as part of a committee in Dallas, but it has basically been all Williams.
Williams’ role has only grown following the season-ending injury to Miles Sanders. He played on 89% of the team’s snaps in their last game, and he handled 88% of their rushing attempts. If he can maintain that level of usage vs. the Raiders, he has the chance for a much bigger performance. The Raiders haven’t been terrible against the run this season, but they still stand out as a plus matchup overall.
George Pickens had some big performances while Lamb was sidelined, but he’s settled back into a No. 2 role in recent weeks. He still has a 23% target share and 30% air yards share in his past three outings, but he’s slipped back to an average of 12.3 PPR points per game.
That’s simply not going to get the job done at his current salary. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s still priced very aggressively at $9,000 for Monday Night Football. He’s a much more appealing option at $8,800 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 95% Bargain Rating.
It has been a disastrous season for Geno Smith with the Raiders. He was viewed as a clear upgrade for the team at quarterback, but he has been anything but. He has more interceptions than touchdown passes, and his 5.71 adjusted yards per attempt is his worst mark since his tenure with the Jets. For fantasy purposes, Smith ranks a disastrous 34th in fantasy points per game, and he’s scored single-digit fantasy points in four of his past five.
That said, the lone outlier during that stretch was 27.26 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars. He also had more than 26 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders, and both of those defenses rank in the top seven in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. That suggests that Smith can still take advantage of the right matchups, and no matchup is better than the Cowboys. They’ve been the worst defense by a mile against quarterbacks this season, giving Smith a monstrous +7.2 Opponent Plus/Minus.
It’s hard to trust Smith with his track record this season, but he’s pretty affordable for a QB in the single-game format. In this matchup, he has the potential for an excellent showing.
The fact that Smith will have Brock Bowers available should also help. Bowers has played two games since returning from injury, and they’ve been two wildly different performances. He went absolutely nuclear in his first game back, finishing with 46.3 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars. Unfortunately, he came crashing back to reality the following week, finishing with just three targets, one reception, and 31 yards vs. the Broncos.
The Cowboys’ defense is clearly not the Broncos, making Bowers an elite buy-low target. He was basically unstoppable as a rookie, and he’s posted a target share of at least 30% in two of his past three games. If he can get back to that level vs. Dallas, he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Bowers ultimately leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, making him an elite option in all formats. It also makes sense to consider pairing him with his quarterback, given their massive +0.68 correlation.
Jake Ferguson is the Cowboys’ top tight end, and he’s turned in an excellent fantasy season. He owns a 21% target share, which is the fourth-best mark at the position. He’s maintained a 20+% mark in two of three games with Lamb back in the lineup, so he should continue to provide some value.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Ferguson’s targets are almost exclusively of the short variety. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 4.8 yards, and he’s garnered just 12% of the team’s air yards. Those are paltry figures, even for a tight end.
The Raiders have also been surprisingly good against tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. They’ve allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends all year, and without a score, it’s tough to imagine Ferguson providing much upside.
Tre Tucker has taken over as the Raiders’ top receiver following the trade of Jakobi Meyers. That said, that doesn’t necessarily mean much. He’s still a clear second behind Bowers in the pecking order, and he’s posted target shares of 11% and 13% in the two games since Bowers returned. The matchup for Tucker is definitely favorable, but he’s far from a slam-dunk.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format, and they’re even more valuable than usual on this slate. Unsurprisingly, the kickers stand out as better values than the defenses in a game with a 50.5-point total.
- Ryan Flournoy ($4,600 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Flournoy scored a touchdown in the Cowboys’ last game, and he was up to a 67% route participation in that outing. Those are both positive signs, but Flournoy still had just a 9% target share. He’s much more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings.
- Michael Mayer ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – The Raiders have utilized far more two-TE sets since Bowers’ return, which makes a ton of sense. Mayer was a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he’s arguably the team’s second-best pass-catcher. He has a target share of at least 17% in back-to-back games, so he’s a solid value target.
- Tyler Lockett ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Lockett has been invisible for most of the year, but he came out of nowhere to post an 80% route participation and 25% target share last week. He has the opportunity to play more following the Meyers trade, so while he might be washed, he could still be a nice option.
- KaVontae Turpin ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Turpin is a gadget player and special teamer more than anything else, but the Cowboys like to get the ball in his hands a couple of times per game. He’s clearly fallen behind Flournoy from an opportunity standpoint, but he was targeted on 30% of his routes run in his last outing.
- Raheem Mostert ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Mostert is Jeanty’s backup, and he doesn’t typically see a ton of work.
- Dont’e Thornton ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Thornton is the Raiders’ big-play threat at receiver. He had a 40% air yards share in the team’s last contest, despite a pretty paltry 8% target share.
- Jack Bech ($1,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Bech was an early-round draft pick for the Raiders, and there was some hope he’d take on a bigger role following the Meyers trade. Unfortunately, that didn’t materialize last week. He had just a 23% route participation, though he could get a few more opportunities down the stretch.
Pictured: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb
Photo Credit: Imagn
