The start of the NFL regular season is upon us! It feels like the run-up to the season takes forever, yet once the games actually start, the year flies by. It’s a reminder to enjoy each game, even if it may not be the best on paper.
This year’s opening contest features a storied NFC East rivalry. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles will host the Dallas Cowboys, with Philly listed as 8.5-point favorites. This game lost a bit of luster after the Cowboys inexplicably traded Micah Parsons, but anything can happen in a divisional game. The total on this contest sits at 47.5 points, so there is expected to be a decent bit of scoring.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Saquon Barkley is coming off a historic season for the Eagles. He managed to stay healthy for the entire year, and he was basically unstoppable behind Philly’s dominant offensive line. He became the ninth player in history to run for at least 2,000 yards during the regular season, and he added 33 receptions, 278 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Barkley followed that up with 574 scrimmage yards and five more scores during the playoffs, capping off one of the best RB seasons in league history.
From a fantasy perspective, Barkley was basically unparalleled. He was first at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, regardless of what scoring settings you look at. He also had a ridiculous ceiling, racking up at least 29.7 DraftKings points on nine separate occasions (including playoffs). The fact that Barkley did that despite Jalen Hurts routinely siphoning away touchdowns at the goal line is pretty remarkable.
There’s no denying Barkley’s ability. He wasted behind a terrible Giants’ offensive line for years, but he’s probably the most talented running back in football. The only real question is, how will his body hold up after a massive workload last year?
Barkley led the league with 378 touches during the regular season, and he led all postseason players with 104 more. That is a monster workload, and the track record for players with that kind of volume isn’t great the following season. Barkley may be an outlier, but given his injury history, it’s at least reasonable to expect some regression.
That said, it may not matter vs. the Cowboys. Since the start of 2021, the Cowboys’ defense has been first in EPA per play with Micah Parsons on the field. When he’s been off the field, they’re dead last. They were also 31st in rush defense EPA overall last season.
The game script also works in his favor. The Eagles are sizable favorites, and Barkley has historically averaged a +4.50 Plus/Minus when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, approaching Barkley with some trepidation makes a lot of sense in season-long formats, but he’s fully healthy for the time being. It’s hard not to see him crushing in this spot.
As good as Barkley is, Hurts is arguably the superior fantasy asset in the single-game format. That’s not exactly a huge limb to go out on. One of those guys is a quarterback, and quarterbacks routinely score more points than players at other positions. With no positional spots to fill in a showdown lineup, that gives Hurts a slight edge over his star teammate, especially at a slightly cheaper salary.
Hurts leads the way in our NFL Models, owning the top ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus. He has one of the safest floors in fantasy thanks to his rushing ability, particularly around the goal line. Hurts has punched in double-digit touchdowns in four straight seasons, including at least 13 in three straight. With the tush push safe for at least one more year, it’s hard to imagine that changing in 2025.
Hurts also rebounded a bit as a passer last year. His overall numbers were down, but that was due more to the Eagles being a run-heavy squad. When he did take to the air, Hurts’ average of 8.42 adjusted yards per attempt was tied for the best mark of his career.
While the Cowboys’ defense didn’t grade out as poorly against the pass in terms of EPA, no team allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Hurts owns the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate, so it’s an excellent matchup. He played in just one of two matchups vs. the Cowboys last season, but he shredded them for 31.68 DraftKings points in that contest. He’s expected to garner the most ownership, but it’s hard to consider anyone else the top overall play.
CeeDee Lamb is the Cowboys’ stud to consider in this matchup, and he grades out the worst among this trio in our projections. He’s coming off a bit of a down year in 2024 by his lofty standards. He had nearly 600 fewer yards than he did the year prior, while his touchdown total dropped from 12 to six. Even when his starting quarterback was healthy to start the year, Lamb saw a significantly smaller percentage of targets than he did in 2023.
Lamb could certainly return to his previous ways in 2025, but he’s going to have a bit more competition for targets this season. He’s also not in a great spot to get his campaign rolling, with the Eagles possessing one of the best defenses in football. Ultimately, there will be better spots for him in the future.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Eagles didn’t take to the air often last season, but when they did, there was a good chance the ball was going to A.J. Brown. He had a 33% target share, which was second only to Malik Nabers. He led all receivers with a 51% air yards share, so Brown remains one of the biggest alphas at the position.
If the Eagles take to the air a bit more in 2025 – which is possible with the amount of tread the put on Barkley’s tires – Brown could be poised for a monster campaign. Brown had at least seven targets in just seven games last year, but the results in those contests couldn’t be more impressive. He had at least 100 receiving yards in five of them, and he just narrowly missed with 97 yards in another. He also managed five receiving touchdowns in those contests. Ultimately, getting brown at a sub-$10k price tag feels like a discount.
Ironically, the only real downside with Brown is that he doesn’t correlate perfectly with his quarterback. Since Hurts derives so much value from his legs, his best games tend to come when he punches in multiple scores. Those are touchdowns that aren’t going to Brown, so the two players have a correlation of -0.05. That doesn’t mean you can’t stack them, but you can also definitely play them individually.
Is Dak Prescott on the hot seat in Dallas? It’s possible. There have been some rumors that the team could look to draft a quarterback in 2026 if this year doesn’t go as planned.
Prescott missed roughly half of last year with an injury, and he wasn’t his usual productive self when on the field. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his eight starts, and he finished with more than 22.4 DraftKings points merely once.
However, Prescott could be extremely busy this season. The Cowboys have almost nothing to speak of in their backfield, so he’s going to have to carry the load for the offense. We’ve seen Prescott thrive in that situation previously, leading the league in completions and touchdown passes two years ago. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential for an excellent bounce-back campaign.
Of course, doing it against the Eagles is a different story. They were third in pass defense EPA last season, and they allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Even if Prescott does have a good year, there’s no guarantee it starts in Week 1. Still, Prescott is far cheaper than usual at $9,000, and he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.
DeVonta Smith was arguably the biggest loser of the Barkley addition last season. While Brown was enough of an alpha to make up for the reduction in volume, the same was not true for Smith. He still had a healthy 26% target share, but the overall pie was too small for that to really matter. He had more than seven targets just once following Week 3, and he was WR22 in PPR points per game from Week 4 on.
Smith clearly still has talent, but it remains to be seen if he’ll get enough work to bounce back in 2025. He’s someone with a wide range of outcomes, possessing a strong ceiling but a pretty weak floor.
George Pickens was the Cowboys’ big addition this offseason, and he’ll give them a legit No. 2 receiver opposite Lamb. Of course, Pickens was not the model of stability during his time with the Steelers, so how he’ll adjust to that role is anyone’s guess. Pickens didn’t seem happy in Pittsburgh unless the ball was coming his direction on every play, and that’s simply not going to be the case with Dallas.
Still, being the No. 2 option for Prescott seems a lot better than being the No. 1 option in Pittsburgh. Pickens has had to overcome poor quarterback play for his entire career, so he has a chance for a career season. He’s never had more than five touchdowns in a season, and he could certainly clear that hurdle in 2025.
Pickens will have to navigate the same brutal matchup as Lamb, but he’s at least significantly cheaper at $8,000. He’s not grading out particularly well in our NFL Models, but that price differential could prove to be a bit too large.
Dallas Goedert is the No. 3 option in Philly, and he has historically provided solid value in that role. Even last season, he posted a 21% target share and was targeted on 22% of his routes run, which are solid marks for a tight end.
Like the other Eagles’ pass-catchers, his biggest issue was simply a lack of overall volume. Goedert also slightly underperformed from a touchdown standpoint, racking up just two scores compared to 3.6 expected (per PFF). That makes him an interesting bounce-back candidate.
How the Cowboys’ backfield touches will shake out is one of the biggest question marks on this slate. None of their options stands out as particularly appealing. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders were both brought in this offseason, but both players were extremely disappointing last year. Jaydon Blue was added as a fifth-round rookie selection, but he tallied just 730 yards in his final college season. It’s possible that we’re headed to a true three-man committee, which would make this backfield completely avoidable.
If you are going to roll the dice on one of these guys, Williams is the clear choice. He’s earned the starting spot in Week 1, so he figures to get the most work of this trio. Blue also has some potential as a pass-catcher – he will likely play on third downs at a minimum – but he’s a bit too expensive at $5,000 as the team’s No. 3 option. Blue is a much more appealing option at $2,400 on FanDuel, where he leads all players with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Jake Ferguson could be a decent source of value at $5,200. He had some solid showings with Prescott to start last season before falling off with Cooper Rush under center. He had at least seven targets in five of his first seven outings, giving him solid volume upside for his price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers are showing up as the better values in our NFL Models, while the Eagles defense has the highest optimal rate of the group in Sim Labs.
- Miles Sanders ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Sanders will return to face his former team on Thursday, but he has the least amount of appeal in the Cowboys’ backfield.
- Jalen Tolbert ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Tolbert should serve as the Cowboys’ No. 3 receiver, and he has some viability in that role. Like Ferguson, he had some solid games with Prescott under center to start last season, though the addition of Pickens will hurt both.
- Jahan Dotson ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Dotson is the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver, but Philly had one of the most condensed passing attacks in football last season. Brown, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley accounted for the vast majority of the team’s damage, so Dotson basically was just doing cardio.
- KaVontae Turpin ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Turpin is a gadget player and special teams ace, which gives him a bit of upside.
- Will Shipley ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Shipley will serve as Barkley’s backup, and that role could prove fruitful at some point this season. That said, it’s probably not going to be the first game of the season.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Schoonmaker is the Cowboys’ No. 2 tight end, and he’s a threat for a cheap touchdown around the goal line or a couple of targets.
Pictured: Saquon Barkley
Photo Credit: Imagn
