NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Chiefs vs. Chargers Friday Night Football (9/5)

A long weather delay ultimately took some of the juice out of the NFL’s opening contest, but we ultimately got a better game than expected between the Cowboys and Eagles. The defending champs were able to pick up the win in the end, but they had to survive some tense moments down the stretch.

Now, the Super Bowl losers from last year will make their debut. The Chiefs will square off with the Chargers in Brazil on Friday night, with the game starting at 8 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as three-point favorites, while the total is listed at 47.0 points.

Can the Chiefs join the Eagles in getting their campaign started on the right foot, or will the Chargers make an early statement? Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Friday night.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

While the Chiefs have historically been an elite offensive team over the past decade, it’s actually a Charger who checks in with the most expensive price tag in this contest. That honor belongs to Ladd McConkey, who had an outstanding rookie season. He finished with 82 receptions, 1,149 yards, and seven touchdowns, which was good enough for a down-ballot finish in a loaded Rookie of the Year race.

McConkey was the top Chargers’ receiving threat all season, posting an excellent 26% target share, but he really took off down the stretch. He caught at least five passes in his final seven regular-season contests, and he had at least six in five of them. He garnered at least nine targets in three of those outings, and he averaged 93.9 receiving yards per game over that stretch.

Part of that stemmed from a slight change in philosophy for the Chargers’ offense. The Chargers were one of the most run-heavy offenses in football to start the year, but they became a bit more balanced down the stretch. If that continues into 2025, McConkey could be poised for a big season.

The matchup vs. the Chiefs is average. They were 15th in pass defense EPA last season, and they allowed the 15th-most points to opposing receivers. McConkey ultimately played in just one of two games vs. the Chiefs last season, and he had a very respectable 17.7 DraftKings points on seven targets, five receptions, 67 yards, and a touchdown.

That said, does McConkey really deserve to be the highest-priced player in this contest? Probably not. He ranks merely fourth in median and ceiling projection in our NFL Models (per the Sean Koerner projections), giving him a negative Plus/Minus. McConkey could certainly find success here, but it’s far from a guarantee.

One of the biggest questions heading into this season is how Patrick Mahomes will bounce back from last year. Not only did he lose in the Super Bowl for the second time in his career, but his overall numbers were way down last season. His average of 245 passing yards per game was the worst mark of his career, as were his touchdown rate and adjusted yards per attempt. Ultimately, he was merely QB13 in terms of fantasy points per game. Mahomes is still just 30 years old, but is it possible that he’s past his prime?

It’s way too early to make that call. While Mahomes’ numbers were down last season, he was working with one of the worst groups of pass-catchers he’s ever had. He won’t have No. 1 receiver Rashee Rice available to him at the start of the season, but the rest of the pieces look improved. The team also attempted to upgrade their blocking for Mahomes this offseason, including using a first-round pick on left tackle Josh Simmons.

Mahomes is still getting plenty of respect in our projections. He owns the top median and ceiling projections on this slate, and he’s also first in projected Plus/Minus. He’s also available at a slight discount at $10,000, which is a figure that would’ve been unfathomable in previous years. Mahomes has said all the right things after losing in the Super Bowl, and I’m not willing to bet against him in 2025. He’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but it’s hard to argue for anyone else as the top option.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Justin Herbert is the other quarterback in this matchup, and he’s been a divisive player to start his NFL career. Some look at the big arm and his ability to squeeze the ball into tight windows and think he’s one of the best QBs in football. Others look at the relative lack of team success and think he’s one of the most overrated players in the league.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. For fantasy purposes, Herbert was actually slightly worse than Mahomes last year, finishing as QB16 in fantasy points per game. However, that figure is skewed by the team’s run-first approach to start the year. He managed 14.8 fantasy points or fewer in each of his first six games, but he was significantly better after the team allowed him to let it rip a bit more. He averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game from Week 8 on, and he had at least 19.5 fantasy points in seven of his final 11 starts. That could make Herbert a bit undervalued to start the year.

Herbert struggled in his two matchups vs. the Chiefs last season, but one of those came early in the year, and the other was without McConkey. He’s had decent success vs. Kansas City overall for his career, averaging 22.1 DraftKings points across eight starts (per the Trends tool).

He’s ultimately just slightly behind Mahomes from a projection standpoint, and he’s available at a slightly cheaper price tag. Quarterbacks always have value in the single-game format, so he’s another excellent option.

Expectations are high for Xavier Worthy heading into his sophomore season. Worthy stepped into a clear No. 1 role for the Chiefs down the stretch, and he’s going to have to fill that void once again with Rice out of the picture. Starting in Week 14 and continuing through the playoffs, Worthy posted an 80% route participation. He garnered 23% of the team’s targets and 31% of their end zone looks. Those aren’t quite elite figures, but they’re significant increases from his marks to start the year.

With another offseason of development under his belt, Worthy could step into an even larger role in 2025. He has some of the best raw speed in the entire league, so he has plenty of upside to go along with a decent floor. He’s underpriced at just $9,000, and he owns an outstanding 0.40 correlation with Mahomes.

Travis Kelce is one of the biggest X-factors on this slate. He got off to a slow start last season, but he proved he still has some gas left in the tank down the stretch. He averaged 9.7 targets and 6.9 receptions per game over his final 10 regular-season contests, and he had a big outing in the Chiefs’ Divisional Round win over the Texans.

The biggest issue for Kelce last year was a lack of touchdowns. He had just three receiving scores after reaching double digits in four of the previous six seasons. Touchdowns can be volatile, so with some better luck in that department this year, he could return to being a top-flight fantasy TE. PFF credited Kelce with a position-best 8.7 expected receiving touchdowns last year, so he could be a major positive regression threat.

However, the matchup vs. the Chargers is brutal. He owns a -3.9 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the worst mark on the slate. He’ll also turn 36 years old this season, so there’s no guarantee he’s the same player he was in his prime. Kelce is ultimately a risky proposition in this spot, but he’s also one with some upside.

Another X-factor on this slate is how the Chargers’ RB touches will shake out. They brought in Najee Harris this offseason, and they also used a first-round pick on rookie Omarion Hampton. Harris missed a lot of training camp while recovering from a fireworks-related eye injury, but he’s expected to be in the mix in Week 1.

We ultimately have Hampton as the clear player to target in this backfield. It’s possible that Harris isn’t quite up to speed yet, and even if he is, he’s never been a particularly productive player. The Chargers made a significant investment in Hampton, so he seems likely to be the team’s top back. Hampton stands out as a clear target on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a slate-best 99% Bargain Rating.

That said, neither player is a must-play on DraftKings. The Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season, so both players could ultimately disappoint.

Isiah Pacheco is coming off a bit of a lost year in 2024. He got off to a decent start, but he missed most of the regular season with a fractured fibula. He was able to return eventually, but he didn’t look like nearly the same player at that point. Pacheco ended up splitting the work with Kareem Hunt down the stretch, who was literally signed as a free agent off the street during the season.

Hunt is still around, but as long as Pacheco is fully healthy, he should return to being the bell-cow in Kansas City. He averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry in each of his first two seasons, and he scored nine touchdowns in his first year as a full-time starter. If the Chiefs’ offense can return to glory this season, he has the chance to be a steal.

Keenan Allen is back with the Chargers after a one-year stint in Chicago, and he had some solid moments with the Bears last season. Specifically, he averaged 6.4 receptions and 82.4 receiving yards with five touchdowns over a five-game stretch from Weeks 12 through 16. The Chargers had a need for a receiver, so bringing Allen back made a lot of sense.

He should see plenty of snaps with the Chargers this season, but it remains to be seen how productive those snaps will be. Allen has spent most of his career as a slot receiver, but he’ll have to play on the outside with McConkey now handling those reps. With the Chargers not exactly airing the ball out at will, it’s a risky proposition for an aging player.

Hollywood Brown missed nearly all of last year with an injury, but he could be a legit game-changer for the Chiefs in 2025. Brown has a 1,000-yard season on his ledger from his time with the Ravens, and he’s another receiver with elite speed. He wasn’t on the field a ton when he did return from injury, but he was targeted on a very respectable 25% of his routes.

With a larger workload in 2025, Brown could put together a strong bounce-back season. He’s not grading out as an elite value at his current price tag, but he’s one of my personal favorite targets in this range.

Finally, Quentin Johnston had some moments last year, racking up 55 catches for 711 yards and eight scores. Still, he hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as a first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he’s going to slide down the pecking order with Allen now in town. He should see fewer opportunities than he did last season, making him overpriced at his current salary.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers are showing up as the better values in our NFL Models, and they have the highest optimal lineup rates of the group in Sim Labs.
• Kareem Hunt ($3,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) – Hunt should serve as the Chiefs’ RB2 this season, and it’s possible he maintains a bigger role than expected. However, he’s way too expensive at $6,800 on FanDuel.
• Tre’ Harris ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Harris was a second-round selection for the Chargers in 2025, but with Allen in town, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of opportunities available for him. Still, he should get on the field for at least a few snaps.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster was more involved than you might realize for the Chiefs last season, running a route on 50% of the team’s dropbacks. He ultimately wasn’t all that productive, but he should be on the field once again on Friday.
• Tyler Conklin ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Conklin was brought in by the Chargers this offseason, and he’ll compete with incumbent Will Dissly for the starting role. Conklin has some pass-catching chops, and he had a career-best four touchdowns with the Jets last year.
• Will Dissly ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Dissly is a bit cheaper than Conklin on DraftKings, but he’s significantly more expensive on FanDuel. The two players have pretty similar projections, so where you’re playing will likely be the deciding factor on these two.
• Noah Gray ($1,600 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Gray actually had five touchdowns for the Chiefs last season, which is two more than Kelce. He had just an 8% target share overall, but he ran a route on 44% of the team’s dropbacks. He was targeted on 15% of those routes, so he was a reliable part of the team’s passing attack. Gray stands out as one of the better options on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
• Tyquan Thornton ($1,200 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Thornton led the Chiefs in receiving yards during the preseason, which was enough to earn a spot on their regular-season roster. Given the absence of Rice and rookie Jalen Royals, it’s possible that he has a role on Friday.

Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Imagn