The final game of NFL Week 9 should be a good one. The Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals will square off in a game with plenty of expected offense. The Cowboys are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 53.5 points.
Dallas is coming off a disappointing showing last week vs. the Broncos, but they have generally exceeded expectations this season. Their defense has been awful – which is not a shock after trading away Micah Parsons – but their offense has more than made up for it. They’re second in the league in both points and yards per game, and a win over the Cardinals would get them back to 4-4-1 for the year. That would keep them alive in the playoff race.
The Cardinals have not been as fortunate. They’re just 2-5 for the year, and they’re expected to be without their starting quarterback once again in Week 9. They’ve dropped five straight games after winning their first two, and with the other three teams in their division each having six wins, their odds of making the postseason are extremely slim.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There are three stud-level options in this contest, and all three play for the Cowboys. That makes sense, given how well their offense has performed this season.
CeeDee Lamb leads the trio from a pricing standpoint, and he’s been excellent when available this season. He’s played in four full games, and he’s racked up 21.0, 23.2, 25.0, and 14.6 DraftKings points in those contests. His lone poor showing came against the Broncos, who have one of the best pass defenses in football.
Lamb’s workload puts him up there with the best receivers in the league. He’s had at least eight targets in all four contests, and he’s averaged 10.5 per game. He’s responded with an average of 101.5 yards per game, and he’s cracked the 100-yard plateau in all but one outing.
The only thing Lamb hasn’t done this season is score touchdowns. He has just one score, and he earned his first end zone target of the season last week. If he can add a few more touchdowns to his profile moving forward, he would have a claim to being the best receiver in fantasy.
Lamb’s matchup vs. the Cardinals is a bit of a mixed bag. They haven’t been great against the pass this season, ranking 19th in pass defense EPA, but they have allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers. It gives Lamb an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.6, which is one of the worst marks on the slate.
Still, it’s clearly a better matchup than Lamb saw last week, and he’s more than talented enough to overcome it. He has the top median and ceiling projections among the non-quarterbacks on this slate.
If the Cowboys were having a better season, Dak Prescott could be getting some MVP consideration. That’s how well he’s played this season. He’s first in the league in QBR, fourth in PFF grade, and seventh in EPA + CPOE composite. He’s completing more than 70% of his passes for the first time in his career, and he’s racked up 16 touchdown passes through his first eight outings.
For fantasy purposes, Prescott doesn’t bring the rushing upside needed to be a truly elite option at the QB position. Still, he’s been a solid source of production in all but the toughest of matchups. He’s had two clunkers this year – last week vs. the Broncos and Week 1 vs. the Eagles – but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his six other starts. He’s averaged just under 25 DraftKings points per game in those outings, and he’s displayed a ceiling of closer to 35.
Prescott has one of the best groups of weapons at his disposal that he’s had in years. Lamb is a true No. 1 threat, while George Pickens and Jake Ferguson are excellent complementary pieces.
Prescott will also take the field as a home favorite on Monday night, which is a situation he’s historically thrived in. He’s been a home favorite in 73 previous starts, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.54 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
It makes Prescott a fantastic option on this slate. He has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus.
Javonte Williams rounds out the Cowboys’ stud trio, and that was not expected to be the case at the start of the season. Williams was viewed as the team’s likely starter, but he was expected to be a part of a committee. Instead, Williams has seized control of this backfield, and he’s been one of the best values in fantasy drafts.
Williams has played on 74% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, and he’s handled 66% of the designed rushing attempts. He’s also been just enough of a threat in the passing attack, racking up an 11% target share. Those aren’t quite bell-cow numbers, but they’re pretty darn close.
Williams has responded by averaging 18.6 PPR points per game, good for an RB7 ranking in fantasy scoring. It’s more than guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Ashton Jeanty, who were all selected well before him in offseason fantasy drafts.
However, Williams doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong option on this slate. The Cardinals have been a bit of a pass funnel defense this season, ranking sixth in rush defense EPA. This is also Williams’ second-highest price tag of the season, so he doesn’t stand out as a particularly good value. He’s merely sixth in ceiling projection, and he’s near the middle of the pack in projected Plus/Minus.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Tre McBride has been the top tight end in fantasy this season. He entered Week 9 with the top per-game scoring average at the position, though Brock Bowers‘ eruption vs. the Jaguars could change that. Still, McBride has dominated in terms of utilization. He leads all tight ends with a massive 28% target share, and his 27% air yards share also ranks first.
Murray being out of the lineup recently has only helped McBride. He’s coming off a massive 36% target share in his last outing, and he’s scored three touchdowns in his past two games. Touchdowns have been the lone thing missing from McBride’s profile, and he’s looked far more likely to find the paint with Jacoby Brissett under center.
McBride should be able to keep the production rolling vs. the Cowboys. They haven’t been quite as poor against tight ends as they have vs. other positions, but it’s still an elite matchup overall. Dallas is 31st in pass defense EPA overall, and as the Cardinals’ clear No. 1 pass-catcher, McBride should be poised for a big game. You’re obviously not required to play a tight end in the single-game format, but McBride has the best projected Plus/Minus among the non-QBs.
Speaking of Brissett, he has been announced as the team’s starting quarterback for Monday Night Football. Kyler Murray hasn’t officially been ruled out – meaning he could serve as a backup or have a package of plays designed for him – but Brissett should see the bulk of the opportunities at the position.
Brissett is one of the most capable backups in football, and he’s delivered some strong fantasy performances in his starts this season. He’s scored at least 20.76 DraftKings points in both starts, so he stands out as an elite option at just $9,000.
The Cowboys have been a goldmine for opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Brissett has a ridiculous +8.0 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs by a wide margin. They’re above 25 fantasy points per game, while the Bengals rank second-worst at 21.9.
Brissett ranks first on the slate in projected Plus/Minus. If Murray is ultimately ruled out, he would be an absolute slam dunk. He’d carry a bit more risk if Murray is available, but Brissett is still one of the strongest plays of the day.
George Pickens posted some huge performances while Lamb was sidelined for Dallas, but he’s back to being their clear No. 2 option. That said, he can still put together some strong showings in that role. Dallas has an above-average pass rate, and with how well Prescott is playing, there’s enough to go around for multiple pass-catchers.
Pickens has maintained a solid 25% target share with Lamb back in the lineup over the past two games. He also leads the team in air yards over that stretch, including a 54% air yards share vs. the Commanders in Week 7. He has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two outings, but his salary for those contests was significantly higher than his current mark. Pickens will likely need a big play or two to return value here, but that’s well within his range of outcomes.
Jake Ferguson could end up being the big loser with Lamb back in the fold. He was racking up opportunities with the team’s top receiver sidelined, but his target share has dipped to 13% over the past two weeks.
Ferguson has done the vast majority of his damage around the line of scrimmage this season, racking up a 4.6-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT). That means he needs elite target volume (and potentially a touchdown) to provide value. That seems a lot less likely with the Cowboys back at full strength.
Ferguson’s one saving grace is that the Cardinals have struggled to defend tight ends. They’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position, so Ferguson has a smidge of buy-low appeal. He also has an elite +0.52 correlation with his quarterback, making him a logical stacking partner.
Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the league with big expectations. He was an elite producer at Ohio State, and the Cardinals selected him with the fourth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, he has been unable to live up to that hype so far. He was a pretty sizable disappointment as a rookie, and things haven’t been much better in his second year.
That said, Harrison still brings some explosiveness to the table. He had a 44% air yards share in his last contest on a pretty meager 18% target share. That could pay dividends against a porous Cowboys’ defense. Harrison likely won’t command much ownership in this spot, making him an interesting contrarian option.
Bam Knight should serve as the Cardinals’ top running back this week. The team released Michael Carter during their bye week, but they did eventually re-sign him to the practice squad. He has been elevated to the active roster for this contest, but it still seems likely that Knight will get most of the opportunities.
Knight has split the responsibilities with Carter following the injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson, but he earned 58% of the carries in their last game. That number could take another small step forward in Week 9. Knight doesn’t bring anything to the table as a pass-catcher, but he has the chance to punch in a short touchdown or two. He’s definitely viable at $7,000.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Unsurprisingly, the kickers stand out as better options than the defenses in a game with a 53.5-point total.
- Michael Carter ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – It will be interesting to see how much work Carter gets this week. Knight should get the bulk of the carries, but Carter will likely handle the passing-down work at a minimum.
- Zay Jones ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Jones has turned in back-to-back solid performances, but his route participation dipped to just 52% in his last game. He also had just a 6% target share in that contest, though he did turn two catches into 67 yards. That’s not going to happen very often.
- Michael Wilson ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Wilson always looks like a solid play from an availability standpoint. He’s a nearly every-down receiver, posting an 82% route participation for the year. He’s logged a double-digit target share in four straight outings, so the opportunities should be there in an exploitable matchup.
- Ryan Flournoy ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Flournoy had a breakout performance in one of the games without Lamb, but he’s been pretty irrelevant since then. He had zero targets and a 17% route participation in Week 7, and things weren’t much improved last week vs. the Broncos.
- Greg Dortch ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Dortch saw an uptick in snaps a few weeks ago in a game that Harrison exited early, but he was on the field for just seven snaps in the team’s last game. He still earned a target in that contest, but he’s not a big part of their game plan at the moment.
- KaVontae Turpin ($2,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Turpin is a special teamer and gadget player, and the Cowboys typically try to get the ball in his hands a couple of times a game.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Schoonmaker had a season-high 9% target share last week. He likely needs a TD to return value, but tight ends are always a threat around the goal line.
- Jaydon Blue ($1,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Blue was a healthy scratch to start his rookie season, but he’s taken over as the team’s backup RB following the injury to Miles Sanders. He’s had at least seven carries in back-to-back games, though he’s getting none of the passing-down work.
- Elijah Higgins ($1,000 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Arizona’s TE2. He’s had at least one target in all but one game this season, including four games with multiple looks.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
