It’s the most wonderful time of the year, and the NFL will feature a triple-header on Christmas. Things wrap up with an 8:15 p.m. ET nightcap between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs, with the Broncos listed as 13.5-point road favorites. The total for this contest sits at 36.5 points.
The Broncos have had a phenomenal season. They enter this contest with the best record in the AFC, and they can theoretically clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference as early as this week. They would need to get some help to get it done before the final week, but wins in their final two games would guarantee that the AFC goes through Denver.
Meanwhile, it has been a disastrous season for the Chiefs. They’ve been a dynasty since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, making it to seven straight AFC Championships and five Super Bowls, but they will not be going back to the playoffs this year. Mahomes is on the shelf with a torn ACL, while backup quarterback Gardner Minshew went down with the same injury last week. At this point, the team is simply looking to make it to the finish line. They were hammered by the lowly Titans last week, so there is not much for Chiefs’ fans to be thankful for this Christmas.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Broncos-Chiefs.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There are only two studs to consider in this matchup, and both of them play for the Broncos. R.J. Harvey is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and he has thrived since taking over as the Broncos’ starting running back. JK Dobbins went down with an injury in Week 10, which has allowed Harvey to start the team’s past five games. He’s handled 60% of the snaps and 61% of the designed rushing attempts over that time frame, and he’s also managed a 10% target share.
Harvey isn’t operating as a true bell-cow back, but he’s still posted some impressive fantasy performances. He’s finished as a top-10 PPR scorer at the position in three of the past four weeks, and he has two top-four finishes during that time frame. Overall, he’s averaged 16.8 PPR points per game since Week 11.
This has the potential to be an elite game script for Harvey. The Broncos are massive favorites, which tends to bode well for running backs. Harvey has been a favorite of at least six points in two previous starts, and he’s finished with 21.2 and 22.0 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool).
That said, Harvey might not have quite as much upside as the typical RB in this price range. The Broncos are still using a bit of a committee at the position, so if they do establish a big lead, it could be someone else killing the clock down the stretch. Still, Harvey is one of the most likely touchdown scorers on this slate: he’s priced as high as -150 to find the paint across the betting markets.
Harvey does stand out as a bit overpriced in our projections, but he’s popping frequently in the optimal lineup simulations in Sim Labs. He has the third-highest optimal Captain rate, and he’s No. 1 at the Flex spot.
Bo Nix is the other Broncos’ stud, and he’s arguably the best play of the day. He’s had an up-and-down season from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s picked things up down the stretch. He’s had at least 20.18 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he played one of his best games of the year two weeks ago vs. the Packers. He had more than 300 passing yards and four touchdowns against a very good defense, resulting in a season-best 32.08 DraftKings points.
Nix might not need to throw the ball much on Christmas, but he should be successful when he does take to the air. The Chiefs are merely 17th in pass defense EPA this season, and things don’t figure to get any easier for them with Mahomes not helming the offense. They were on the field a ton last week, and they surrendered 376 yards and 26 points to a dismal Titans’ offense.
Nix ultimately leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projection, and he has the top optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs. He is projected for the most ownership in this contest, but he’s one of the toughest fades on the slate.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
After a shaky stretch during the middle of the season, Courtland Sutton is back to being the Broncos’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver. He’s posted a 27% target share over the team’s past three games, and he’s had double-digit targets in all three contests. He’s scored in two straight outings, finishing with at least 20.6 DraftKings points on both occasions.
Sutton is also still priced at a bit of a discount. He started the year at $10,000, and he’s been close to that figure for most of the season. However, he’s available at just $9,000 vs. the Chiefs. It’s not an ideal matchup – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.8 – but he still owns the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate. His mark is actually higher than Harvey’s, despite being $1,600 cheaper.
Welcome to the NFL, Chris Oladokun. He’s technically been in the Chiefs’ organization since 2022, but he got his first real taste of NFL action in relief of Minshew last week. Now, he’ll be making the first start of his career in primetime against one of the best defenses in football. Good luck with that.
Oladokun played reasonably well, all things considered, last week vs. the Titans. He completed 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards, with zero touchdowns and interceptions. He did have a fumble, but it was still a solid showing for someone with presumably very few practice reps.
Still, this represents a clear step up in weight class for Oladokun. The Broncos have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers, and they rank 10th in pass defense EPA. Oladukon will also have very little to work with, especially with Rashee Rice landing on IR earlier this week. Ultimately, if Mahomes struggled to make things happen with this group for most of the season, it’s hard to imagine Oladukon making things work. Quarterbacks will always have some appeal in the single-game format, but he has some of the lowest projections that you’ll ever see for the position.
Troy Franklin is the Broncos’ No. 2 receiver on paper, but his role with the team has shrunk in recent weeks. He’s had a route participation of 72% or lower in four straight games, and his target share sits at just 12% over that stretch. He did have a 21% mark vs. the Packers two weeks ago, but that game came with the Broncos missing Pat Bryant. When they’ve been at full strength recently, Franklin simply hasn’t been a big part of the game plan.
The good news for Franklin is that Bryant will be out of the picture again on Christmas. He’s been ruled out with a concussion, which opens the door for Franklin to be a larger part of the game plan. He doesn’t grade out particularly well in our NFL Models, but he at least has some upside.
Without Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce will serve as Oladokun’s top two pass-catchers. Unfortunately, it’s hard to get excited about either. Worthy had just a 15% target share sans Rice last week, and he finished with just 6.1 DraftKings points.
However, he did lead the team with a massive 64% air yards share. That at least gives him a puncher’s chance at providing some value. It’s possible he can get behind the Broncos’ secondary for a big play, though that seems pretty unlikely.
Father Time is undefeated, and he’s currently getting the best of Kelce. His season-long numbers aren’t terrible, but he just doesn’t look like the same player at this point in his career. That’s not a huge shocker at 36 years old, which is ancient by NFL standards.
Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes is legendary, but he was dismal last week without him: four targets, one catch, six yards. The Broncos have been a bit more vulnerable against tight ends than they have vs. receivers, but it’s definitely fair to wonder if Kelce’s heart is in things at the moment. He was hoping to compete for another Super Bowl this season, so he could be mentally checked out.
Hollywood Brown should also have the potential for increased opportunities with Rice out of the picture. He was on the field for 58% of the team’s passing plays last week, and he did manage a 15% target share. That said, his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was just 0.3 yards in that contest, making his opportunities extremely low-value. He caught all three of his targets, but he finished with just 5.2 DraftKings points. He stands out as pretty significantly overpriced on DraftKings, but he’s much more reasonable at $5,800 on FanDuel.
The Chiefs have employed a committee at running back for most of the season, with Kareem Hunt serving as their lead option. That said, Hunt is an older player, so there’s no reason to lean on him with the team out of contention. They shifted things back in Isiah Pacheco’s favor last week, with Pacheco handling 72% of the snaps and 67% of the rushing attempts. He was also a huge factor in the passing attack, racking up 35% of the team’s targets.
That makes Pacheco the clear player to target in this backfield. He’s still far from a must-play as a nearly two-touchdown underdog, but he should see the most volume of this duo.
Finally, let’s dive into the Broncos Defense. I normally save the defenses and kickers for the next section, but the Broncos are worth making an exception for. Believe it or not, they have the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. They have the potential to do serious damage against a QB making his first career start, and they trail only Nix in terms of projected Plus/Minus. They could end up being pretty chalky, but they stand out as one of the best options on a slate with few sure things.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Outside of the Broncos Defense, Will Lutz has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group in our NFL Models. However, the Chiefs Defense has the top optimal lineup rate of the remaining trio, and they’re also projected to be underowned.
- Marvin Mims ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) – Mims is a part-time player for the Broncos, but he should also see a bump with Bryant out of the picture. He had an 18% target share with Bryant sidelined two weeks ago, and he finished with 7.7 DraftKings points. He also has a team-high +0.59 correlation with Nix, making him a solid stacking partner.
- Evan Engram ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Engram has been a disaster signing for the Broncos, and he’s started to lose playing time at tight end. He’s had route participations of 52% and 41% in back-to-back games, and he’s finished with a single-digit target share in both contests.
- Brashard Smith ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Smith remained a non-factor in Week 16, playing on 19% of the team’s snaps and recording zero carries. There’s still a chance he sees a larger role with the Chiefs playing for nothing down the stretch, but that hasn’t been the case so far.
- Jaleel McLaughlin ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – McLaughlin has been the Broncos’ No. 2 runner with Dobbins out of the lineup. He’s had at least 27% of the team’s carries in three of their past five games, and he could pick up some additional work if this game turns into a blowout.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Humphrey spent most of the year with the Giants, but the Broncos signed him off their practice squad in the middle of November. He was on the field for 72% of the team’s pass plays in Week 15 with Bryant sidelined, and he managed 13.2 DraftKings points in that contest.
- Noah Gray ($2,400 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Gray was on the field more last week, posting a 42% route participation, but he had zero targets for the second straight game.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster was surprisingly one of the big winners from the Rice injury. His route participation jumped all the way up to 94% last week, which is a massive figure for someone in this price range.
- Adam Trautman ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Trautman has started to cut into Engram’s snaps, though it hasn’t resulted in a ton of fantasy production. He had just a 7% target share last week, and he failed to earn a single target the week prior.
- Tyler Badie ($1,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Badie is another option in the Broncos’ backfield. He’s been their primary third-down back this season, though that stems more from his pass-blocking than his pass-catching ability. He has just a 5% target share for the year, though he could also see some extra work if this game is a blowout.
Pictured: Bo Nix
Photo Credit: Imagn
