NFL Week 12 gets underway with a showdown between two division winners from each of the past two seasons. The Buffalo Bills will travel to Houston to take on the Texans, with the Bills listed as 5.5-point road favorites. The total for this contest sits at 43.5 points.
However, neither of these teams appears poised to repeat as division champions this season. The Bills currently trail the Patriots by 2.5 games, and they’ve already lost one head-to-head matchup. Buffalo is still in a great position to make the postseason, but they’re likely going to have to do it from a Wild Card spot.
Things don’t look quite as rosy for the Texans. They’re currently in eighth place in the AFC, though a recent two-game winning streak has pushed them back to 5-5. They’re going to have to survive at least one more game without starting QB C.J. Stroud, though they’d be underdogs vs. the Bills regardless of who is at quarterback. The Texans still have a chance to make the playoffs if they finish strong, but it seems like they’re going to need to go at least 5-2 to make that realistic.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Any analysis of the Bills has to start with Josh Allen. He took home his first MVP award last season, but he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in football for a while now. He’s accounted for at least 40 total touchdowns in five straight seasons, and he’s on pace to do it once again in 2025-26. He’s first at the position in fantasy points per game, and when he hits his ceiling, no other quarterback can match it.
Allen put his ceiling on display just last week, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns while adding three more scores on the ground. It was just the second time in NFL history that someone went for at least three rushing and passing TDs in the same game, and Allen also recorded the first. He’s now had two games with more than 41 DraftKings points this season, so he has a chance to break the slate on a weekly basis.
Unfortunately, Allen is going to have to navigate one of the toughest possible matchups this week. The Texans’ defense isn’t just good; they’re downright elite. They’re first in the league in defensive EPA, and they’re No. 1 against the pass. Unsurprisingly, they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers (12.5). That gives Allen a brutal -5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the worst mark on the slate.
Still, Allen is capable of having success against anyone. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games this season, giving him an elite combination of floor and ceiling. However, both of those disappointments came on the road, and Allen has been drastically worse outside of Buffalo this season.
The good news is that his long-term history suggests there’s no real cause for concern. Allen has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 on the road, which is better than his home mark (per the Trends tool). This game will also be played indoors, so there’s no reason to ding Allen too much.
Allen’s data in Sim Labs is fascinating. He’s projected to be rostered at 36.0% in the Captain spot, which is one of the largest marks we’ve seen all season. His optimal rate is merely 9.6%, so he figures to be extremely overowned there. Conversely, his optimal Flex rate is more than 25% greater than his projected Flex ownership, so that appears to be the best use for him in this matchup.
James Cook is the Bills’ top skill-position player, which makes him an awkward fit with his quarterback. The two players have a -0.18 correlation on DraftKings, so they tend to be an “either-or” situation. When one goes off, it typically comes at the expense of the other.
While Allen is the model of consistency, Cook is a bit more volatile. He doesn’t have a true bell-cow workload, garnering a 60% snap share, 72% carry share, and 8% target share for the year. Most importantly, he loses work on passing downs, and Allen is always a threat to vulture him around the goal line.
That hasn’t stopped Cook from putting together plenty of big performances. He’s sixth among running backs in PPR points per game, and he’s gone for at least 20.4 DraftKings points in six of 10 contests. Unfortunately, most of that production came early in the year. Cook started the season with four straight games of more than 21 DraftKings points, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six.
Houston’s defense isn’t quite as dominant against the run as they are against the pass, but it’s pretty darn close. They’re fourth in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Ultimately, only Allen owns a worse projected Plus/Minus on this slate.
While Allen still stands out as a strong option in our NFL Models, Cook isn’t able to overcome his massive price tag. He owns a negative projected Plus/Minus, and he’s projected to be overowned at both Captain and the Flex spots in Sim Labs.
Nico Collins is the Texans’ lone stud. From a utilization standpoint, he’s a clear alpha receiver. He’s posted a 26% target share and 37% air yards share for the year, and he’s increased those figures to 29% and 40% over his past three games. Collins has responded with two straight games with 20+ PPR points, finishing as a top-seven scorer at receiver in both weeks.
That’s a solid sign for Collins’ prospects without Stroud on Thursday. His past two games have come without the Texans’ starting QB, and he’s still managed to deliver strong results.
Unfortunately, the Bills stand out as a below-average matchup. They’re 10th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers. Collins’ past two opponents have been below average in fantasy points allowed to receivers, so this will represent a significant step up in weight class.
Like Cook, it’s hard to get too excited about Collins at his current price tag. However, he at least has a higher ceiling projection at a slightly cheaper price tag. He’s also not expected to have quite as much ownership, and the Texans could be forced into a pass-heavy game script if they fall behind in this matchup. That makes him a bit more appealing.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Davis Mills will make his third straight start at quarterback, and he’s propelled the Texans to wins in each of his first two. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Mills has also delivered fantasy value in both outings. He had 28.68 DraftKings points in a furious comeback win over the Jaguars, and he followed that up with 16.36 DraftKings points vs. the Titans last week.
The Texans have not been shy about letting Mills air it out. He’s attempted at least 41 passes in both of his starts, and the team has posted a +6% Dropback Over Expectation over that stretch. That gives Mills a solid volume outlook vs. the Bills. Buffalo is a tough matchup – they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers – but Mills has some appeal at his current salary.
Woody Marks has seemingly taken over as the Texans’ clear top running back. He handled 70% of the team’s rushing opportunities in Week 10, and that figure spiked to 86% last week vs. the Titans. Most importantly, he’s had all of the carries from inside the five-yard line during that stretch.
Marks has been priced way up to $9,200 for this week’s matchup, and he does not grade out well at that price tag. However, he still has some sneaky upside vs. the Bills. Their defense has been absolutely shredded on the ground in back-to-back weeks, allowing at least 197 rushing yards to the Dolphins and Buccaneers. Neither of those teams is a juggernaut on the ground, so Marks could find some success in this contest. His +1.7 Opponent Plus/Minus is the best mark on the slate.
Khalil Shakir is the Bills’ clear top remaining option in the passing game. That wasn’t always the case to start the year. Keon Coleman appeared to be on the verge of a breakout to start the season, while Dalton Kincaid was dominant in the middle. However, Kincaid will miss his second straight game with an injury, while Coleman will be a healthy scratch. Coleman was also inactive last week, and while it’s still unclear why he’s fallen out of favor in Buffalo, it’s a clear positive for Shakir.
Shakir is coming off a disappointing game last week, but he posted a 26% target share over his previous six contests. That’s caused his price tag to dip to $8,000 vs. the Texans, giving him some buy-low appeal.
Dalton Schultz rounds out this price range, and he’s been a frequent target in Mills’ two starts. He’s posted a target share of at least 23% in both outings, and he’s racked up double-digit PPR points in both.
Unfortunately, Schultz is another player with a brutal matchup on Thursday. The Bills have been absolutely elite against tight ends this season, allowing just 5.8 PPR points per game. That’s the top mark against the position by more than a full fantasy point.
Schultz has a bit more appeal on FanDuel than he does on DraftKings. His salary comes with an 85% Bargain Rating on that site, which is the top mark among players priced below $9,600.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – There are a ton of value options to consider on this slate, but the defenses and kickers are always in play. The kickers stand out as stronger values in our NFL Models, while the Bills Defense stands out as the most under-owned in Sim Labs.
- Jayden Higgins ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) – The Texans are using a committee approach at WR2, but Higgins has emerged as the best option of the bunch of late. He’s not an every-down player, but he’s been frequently targeted by Mills when on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 26% of his routes run in back-to-back games, making him an interesting option at $4,600.
- Joshua Palmer ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Palmer made his return to the lineup last week, though he was on the field for less than 50% of the team’s pass plays. The good news is that he was targeted on 31% of his routes run. With Coleman and Kincaid out of the picture, Palmer could be Allen’s No. 2 option in the passing attack.
- Dawson Knox ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Knox had a season-high 85% route participation last week, so he’s a nearly every-down player with Kincaid sidelined. That didn’t culminate in a ton of targets, but he could earn a few more opportunities this week. At a minimum, he’s a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Gabe Davis ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Davis is back where it all started. He saw a 45% route participation in his first game back in Buffalo, and he also earned an end zone target. He clearly has familiarity with Allen and this system, so his role has the potential to grow.
- Ty Johnson ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Johnson is the No. 2 RB in Buffalo and handles most of the pass-catching responsibilities out of the backfield. He had a long touchdown reception last week on a screen pass, and he scored on the ground three weeks ago. That said, he’s failed to return value in any game where he hasn’t scored this season, and his price tag has come up in recent weeks.
- Nick Chubb ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Chubb benefits from the same matchup as Marks, and he’s significantly cheaper. That said, his snaps have plummeted over the past two weeks, and he logged just 14% of the team’s carries vs. the Titans.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Hutchinson had a 51% route participation and 13% target share last week, both of which are in line with his season averages.
- Christian Kirk ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Kirk is the most accomplished of the Texans’ secondary receivers, but his opportunities have shrunk in recent weeks. Still, he was on the field for 55% of the team’s pass plays last week.
- Tyrell Shavers ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – With Coleman on the sidelines recently, Shavers has gotten more opportunities to shine. He did that last week, turning five targets into four catches, 90 yards, and a touchdown. He’s someone who could earn more opportunities moving forward.
- Jackson Hawes ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Hawes takes over as the Bills’ No. 2 TE with Knox moving up to the No. 1 spot. However, he was barely on the field last week and failed to earn a single target.
- Jaylin Noel ($1,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Noel provided some value earlier this season with Collins sidelined, but his role has shrunk with the team closer to full strength. He was fifth among the team’s receivers in routes last week.
- Elijah Moore ($1,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Yet another option in the Bills’ passing attack. However, he has just a 6% target share for the year, and he’s been below that figure in back-to-back games.
Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
