An outstanding Thanksgiving slate wraps up with a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Ravens are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
These two squads played two absolute classics last season. The Ravens prevailed 41-38 in overtime when they met in Cincinnati, and they secured a 35-34 victory in the rematch in Baltimore. Picking up those two wins is a big reason why the Ravens won the division, while the Bengals ultimately missed the playoffs.
The Ravens are once again atop the AFC North this season, winning five straight games. However, they have the same record as the Steelers, so the division is still up for grabs. The Bengals have struggled to a 3-8 record this season, but they’ll get their star QB back on Thanksgiving. Hopefully, these two can produce another banger for us.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Bengals-Ravens.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game is overflowing with stud talent. That starts with Ja’Marr Chase. He put together a historic season at the receiver position last year, leading the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17). He hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but he still ranks seventh at the position in PPR points per game. That number would likely be higher if not for some subpar games with Jake Browning under center earlier this year.
Chase has been an absolute monster from Week 5 on. He’s posted a 34% target share over that time frame, and he’s averaged 22.7 PPR points per game. He’s turned in four top-five finishes at receiver over his past six games.
However, most of that production came with Joe Flacco under center. Now, he’ll have to go back to catching passes from Joe Burrow. Burrow is obviously a better player, but he may spread the ball out a bit more than Flacco did. Chase’s target share last season was 28%, so he could have a few fewer opportunities moving forward. Hopefully, the opportunities that he does get are higher quality and lead to more scoring chances.
The Bengals are also going to be without Tee Higgins on Thanksgiving, so Chase is poised for a monster role regardless. Chase faced the Ravens without Burrow under center and Higgins out of the lineup in one of two games last year, and he erupted for 17 targets, 11 receptions, 264 yards, and three touchdowns. It’s the eighth-most PPR points by a receiver in a single game since 1950.
The Ravens defense hasn’t been quite as porous this year as it was in 2024-25, but it still ranks merely 20th in pass defense EPA. They’ve been better during the team’s recent win streak, but this is still a matchup that Chase shouldn’t fear.
Chase ultimately has the top optimal lineup rate at the Captain spot in Sim Labs. He also has the third-highest optimal lineup rate in the Flex spots, so he’s undoubtedly one of the top options on the slate.
As good as Chase looks, Lamar Jackson is arguably the better value. That’s how our projections see it, with Jackson getting the edge in projected median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus.
At his best, Jackson is one of the best fantasy producers in NFL history. He’s an absolute cheat code with his rushing ability, and he’s become one of the league’s most efficient passers as well. He racked up an absurd 41 passing touchdowns to just four interceptions last season, leading the league with an average of 10.15 adjusted yards per attempt.
Jackson hasn’t been as dominant this year, but he’s still averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game. That’s not what we’re used to seeing from him, but it’s still the 12th-best mark at quarterback.
Unfortunately, Jackson has simply not looked like the same player since returning from injury. He averaged 27.6 fantasy points in three full games before getting injured, but that figure has dipped to 14.0 in four games since coming back. That’s a drop of nearly 50%. He’s been even worse over his past two outings, scoring just 6.72 and 7.22 DraftKings points vs. the Browns and Jets, respectively.
With that in mind, it’s fair to wonder if Jackson is truly healthy. Struggling against the Browns is reasonable – they have one of the best defenses in football – but the Jets were a matchup where Jackson should’ve crushed.
If Jackson can’t find success vs. the Bengals, it’s officially time to worry. Cincinnati is 31st in dropback EPA against, and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Jackson will also be at home in Baltimore, where he has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.37 as a favorite of at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, this is the perfect spot for Jackson to get right. He torched the Bengals for 32.9 and 37.42 DraftKings points in their two matchups last year, and he’s scored at least 22.8 DraftKings points in six of their past seven meetings. The only thing that can stop him here is his health.
With Jackson struggling of late, the team has leaned on Derrick Henry to carry the offense. That’s a nice fallback plan. Henry was an absolute beast in his first year in Baltimore, averaging 113 yards per game with 18 total touchdowns.
Henry hasn’t been quite the same player this season. He’s now 31 years old, and running backs start to decline once they hit their 30s. Henry has averaged 4.7 yards per attempt this season, which is down more than a full yard from his mark last year (5.9). His advanced metrics are also a bit concerning, with Henry somehow ranking just 34th in the league in broken tackles. He’s 49th in yards after contact per attempt, so he’s not dominating physically like we’ve seen in years past.
Still, Henry has gotten plenty of volume recently, and that’s the most important thing for fantasy purposes. He’s had at least 18 carries in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 22.8 DraftKings points in both contests. His showing vs. the Browns was easily his most impressive performance of the year, finishing with more than 100 yards and a touchdown on the road vs. an elite defense.
If Henry can do that vs. Cleveland, there’s no reason he can’t obliterate the Bengals. As bad as they’ve been against the pass, they’ve somehow been even worse against the run. No team has allowed more PPR points per game to opposing RBs, giving Henry a +3.5 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Burrow rounds out this tier, and he has the most uncertainty of the stud options. Not only does he have the worst matchup of the bunch (-1.9 Opponent Plus/Minus), but this will also be his first contest since Week 2. He’ll likely have to shake off a bit of rust.
We know what Burrow is capable of at full strength. He was an elite fantasy QB last season, despite putting up his fantasy points almost exclusively with his arm. He was third at the position in fantasy points per game last year, and from Week 9 on, he was tied with Jackson for the No. 1 spot. Burrow also had at least 36.72 DraftKings points in both matchups vs. the Ravens.
Burrow is also the rare QB who has historically thrived as an underdog. He’s averaged more fantasy points in that split than he has as a favorite, and he should get plenty of opportunities to sling the rock vs. Baltimore.
Ultimately, Burrow has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, and he ranks fifth in projected Plus/Minus. Some might be scared off in his first game back, but there’s no reason for the Bengals to play him if he’s not fully healthy. They’re not going anywhere, so it’s reasonable to assume that Burrow is good to go.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The stud tier is absolutely loaded, and there’s a pretty robust value tier to choose from as well. That means the midrange is pretty devoid of options. The two headliners – Zay Flowers and Chase Brown – could easily be considered studs on other slates. After that, there’s a pretty significant drop-off.
Let’s start with Flowers. From a utilization standpoint, he’s a top-flight fantasy receiver. He owns a 29% target share for the year, which is the eighth-best mark in the NFL. It puts him right up there with guys like Puka Nacua (29%), Chris Olave (29%), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (32%).
Unfortunately, Flowers simply hasn’t had the same level of production as those other guys. That stems from two major factors. First, the Ravens don’t throw the ball at a very high clip. They have the sixth-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation, and they’ve dipped to the second-lowest during their recent win streak. That means that even though Flowers is getting a large share of the team’s passing pie, the pie simply isn’t all that big.
Second, Flowers has scored just one touchdown this season. Receivers don’t need TDs to accrue fantasy points, but without touchdowns, it’s hard to have a ceiling game.
As a result, Flowers has had a very consistent floor and a minimal ceiling. He had 31.1 in the game where he found the end zone, but he’s scored between 11.3 and 14.9 DraftKings points in seven of his other nine games. As a result, he has just one game with a positive Plus/Minus all year.
There’s no reason to expect Flowers to stay out of the end zone forever. He had 10 total scores across his first two seasons, so he could be due for some positive regression in that department. The matchup vs. the Bengals certainly won’t hurt, though they have been a bit better against receivers than they have vs. other positions.
Brown is one of the most interesting options on this slate. Based purely on his production and workload from the past few weeks, Brown stands out as underpriced. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s had at least 18.0 DraftKings points in four straight. Over his past four outings, he’s played on 80% of the Bengals’ snaps and handled 75% of their carries with a 19% target share. That’s some of the best utilization in football over that time frame.
However, the Bengals are going to be a bit healthier in the backfield for Thanksgiving, with Samaje Perine rejoining the rotation. Perine has been out of the lineup since Week 9, but he played a significant role in the team’s backfield before getting injured. Brown has played well enough that Perine should clearly be his backup, but Brown’s workload will almost certainly take a hit.
Brown also has one of the toughest individual matchups on this slate. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.9, so the Ravens have done a pretty good job at limiting opposing running backs.
Brown ultimately still has a pretty high ceiling, but he also has a tremendous floor for his price tag. That makes him the ideal contrarian Captain target. No one has a larger gap between projected ownership and optimal Captain rate, while he has the second-worst differential in those metrics at the flex spot.
With Higgins out of the lineup, Andrei Iosivas should serve as the Bengals’ No. 2 receiver. He filled the same role last week, but with Chase out of the lineup instead of Higgins. In that contest, Iosivas had a 90% route participation and an 18% target share, and those feel like reasonable expectations for him again on Thanksgiving.
Mark Andrews is coming off just 2.1 DraftKings points in his last game, but he’s still an extremely relevant fantasy tight end. That stems primarily from his touchdown prowess. He has six scores so far this season, including the first rushing TD of his career.
Andrews also remains a solid part of the Ravens’ passing attack. He owns a 17% target share for the year, and he’s been at 19% over his past three games.
That gives Andrews the chance at a huge showing vs. the Bengals. Their defense has been historically bad against tight ends this season. They’re allowing 22.8 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, which is the worst mark in the league by more than five points. Specifically, they’ve allowed 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game to the position, so it’s a great spot for Andrews to get in the paint.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Unsurprisingly, the kickers stand out as the better values in a game with a high total.
- Rashod Bateman ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Bateman has missed the past two games for the Ravens, but he’ll return to the lineup vs. the Bengals. He has just a 12% target share for the year, but he does have a solid +0.36 correlation with his starting quarterback.
- Mitchell Tinsley ($4,600 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Tinsley scored a touchdown last week, and he should also see an uptick in production with Higgins out of the lineup. He played on 77% of the team’s passing plays, so he should be involved once again. He stands out as a better pure value than Iosivas.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) – Hopkins saw an uptick in snaps over the past two weeks sans Bateman, but he should revert to a part-time role vs. the Bengals. Over the first 10 weeks, Hopkins had just a 36% route participation and 8% target share. He likely needs to score a touchdown to return value.
- Mike Gesicki ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Gesicki is arguably the Bengals’ second-best pass-catcher at the moment. He returned to the lineup in Week 12, and he had a 67% route participation and 18% target share. He finished with 7.5 DraftKings points, and he had some big games for the Bengals when Higgins was sidelined last year. Gesicki is criminally underpriced at $2,800 on FanDuel, but he has value across the industry.
- Noah Fant ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – With Gesicki back last week, Fant dipped to an 18% route participation. That’s not gonna get the job done.
- Isaiah Likely ($2,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Likely benefits from the same elite matchup as Andrews. He hasn’t been as involved as his teammate in general, but he owns a 14% target share over his past four games. That makes him a strong punt play.
- Keaton Mitchell ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Mitchell has game-changing speed, but he’s not getting a ton of opportunities behind Henry. His best chance of returning value is if this game turns into a blowout.
- Samaje Perine ($2,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – It will be interesting to see how much work Perine steals from Brown in his first game back. He could take on some pass-catching responsibilities at a minimum, which gives him some appeal.
- Tanner Hudson ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Hudson has solid pass-catching chops, and he actually saw more routes than Fant last week.
Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase
Photo Credit: Imagn
