Two teams officially punched their tickets to the Conference Championships on Saturday, and two more will join them Sunday. The nightcap will take place at 6:30 p.m. ET and features the Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
Chicago has pulled off a host of improbable victories all season, and it pulled another rabbit out of its hat last week. The Bears erased an 18-point deficit vs. the Packers, and they trailed by 11 points with less than five minutes to go in the game. The team scored two quick touchdowns to officially secure a three-point victory, and they’re now just one win away from the NFC Championship.
The Rams also had to pull out a late win in their first playoff game. They were expected to cruise past the Panthers, but Carolina gave them everything they could handle. A late touchdown pass was enough to get the job done, and this team remains one of the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Rams-Bears.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Let’s start by talking about one of my least favorite parts of fantasy football: the weather. I know football purists love seeing the game played in the elements, but who wants to see the best teams in football play in suboptimal conditions?
Thankfully, this game shouldn’t be too heavily impacted. The total has hovered steady at 48.5 points, so the oddsmakers haven’t downgraded the offenses any. There will be sub-freezing temperatures and probably some snow, but the offenses should still be able to operate as usual. As long as the total doesn’t plummet before kickoff, I won’t be downgrading the passing options too much.
Puka Nacua stands out in a tier of his own on this slate. He has been one of the best producers in fantasy all season, leading the position in PPR points per game. He was solidly ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who ranked second at the position, while Ja’Marr Chase was a distant third. Nacua kept the production rolling in his first playoff outing, finishing with 18 targets, 10 receptions, 111 yards, and a score.
Nacua plays in one of the best passing attacks in football, and he has elite individual volume within that offense. He owns a massive 31% target share for the year, and he was at 40% last week vs. the Panthers.
Nacua may not see 18 targets again this week, but he should make up for it with better efficiency. The Panthers’ defense has done a decent job at limiting receivers this season, while the Bears have been more exploitable. They’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position, setting up Nacua for a big potential performance.
Nacua has the top median and floor projections in our NFL Models, and he ranks second in ceiling and projected Plus/Minus. He also has the highest optimal Captain rate in Sim Labs by a massive margin. He checks in at greater than 25% in our simulations, while no other player is above 9.6%.
Pairing Nacua with his quarterback will be a logical first step for most DFS players on this slate. He and Matthew Stafford have a correlation of +0.66 on DraftKings, which is an excellent figure even for a quarterback-receiver duo.
Stafford has also had a fantastic season. He could be looking at the first MVP award of his illustrious career, and he’ll be looking to add his second Super Bowl ring.
For fantasy purposes, Stafford ranked tied for second at quarterback in fantasy points per game. Only Josh Allen was better, despite the fact that Stafford brings very little to the table as a runner. He racked up nearly all of his production through the air, leading the league with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns during the regular season.
Like Nacua, Stafford also got off to a solid start in the playoffs. He did throw a pick, but he also racked up more than 300 passing yards with three touchdowns. He finished with 26.16 DraftKings points, resulting in a positive Plus/Minus for the fifth time in his past six games.
The one real concern with Stafford, and the Rams passing attack in general, is where the game is being played. Stafford has posted a -1.88 Plus/Minus on the road as a member of the Rams (per the Trends tool).
Still, Stafford has the arm strength to deal with whatever elements pop up in Chicago. He leads all players in ceiling and projected Plus/Minus, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate in the Flex spot in Sim Labs.
Caleb Williams has officially arrived. He was inconsistent at times in the Bears’ win over the Packers, but he came up with the big plays when he needed to. That includes one of the most impressive passes you’ll ever see on a crucial fourth down:
Williams ultimately finished with 361 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, resulting in 27.44 DraftKings points. He’s more of the prototypical modern quarterback, and he’s also capable of providing some value with his legs. He averaged 22.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season, and he had four carries for 20 yards in his playoff debut.
Unfortunately, the Rams defense is going to present a much bigger challenge than the Packers. Green Bay was playing without Micah Parsons, while the Rams are essentially at full strength. They’ve been fantastic defensively all season, ranking sixth in the league in pass defense EPA.
Williams ultimately checks in with the lowest projections in the stud tier, though that could make him slightly undervalued. He has the second-largest differential between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership in the Flex spots, and he has the second-highest optimal lineup rate at Captain as well.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Kyren Williams has served as the Rams’ starting running back for the past few seasons, but he’s been in more of a committee in 2025-26. Blake Corum has taken on an increased role down the stretch, and that continued in the team’s first postseason outing. Williams was on the field for 64% of the team’s offensive snaps, but he finished with just 48% of their designed rushing attempts. Those numbers are basically in line with his marks during the regular season.
That makes Williams tough to get behind at $9,200 on DraftKings. Even with the benefit of a receiving touchdown last week, he still posted a slightly negative Plus/Minus. The Bears’ defense has also been tougher against the run than they have vs. the pass, giving Williams an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.8.
Davante Adams is the Rams’ No. 2 receiver, though he still provides the volume of a WR1 for fantasy purposes. He owns a 26% target share for the year, and he has been particularly involved around the goal line. He’s racked up a ridiculous 16 targets from inside the five-yard line, and no other receiver has more than nine this season. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Adams had 14 touchdowns in just 14 regular-season contests.
Adams struggled to get going last week vs. the Panthers, but it wasn’t due to a lack of opportunities. He racked up 13 targets in his first game back from injury, but he finished with just five catches for 72 yards.
Adams’ price tag has dipped slightly compared to last week, making him a fantastic bounce-back target. Not only is the matchup better, but Adams could also see a bump in routes run vs. the Bears. He had just an 80% route participation in his first game back, and he could easily surpass 90% on Sunday night.
The Bears are another team that has used a committee backfield at times this season, and that continued in their first playoff contest. However, D’Andre Swift is still their top option. He had 51% of the snaps and 52% of the designed rushing attempts last week, while Kyle Monangai was at 45% and 35%, respectively. The Rams’ defense has also been slightly more vulnerable against the run this season, ranking 12th in rush defense EPA.
However, the potential game script could work against Swift in this spot. The Bears are larger underdogs than they were last week, and Swift still saw just 14 carries vs. the Packers. He doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table as a pass-catcher, as he has just 9% target share for the year, so he has some bust potential at his current salary.
Colston Loveland figures to be one of the most popular targets on this slate. The rookie TE has been an absolute monster down the stretch, finishing with at least 21.4 PPR points in three straight games.
His underlying metrics support his production. Loveland has had target shares of 24%, 46%, and 34% across his past three outings. He’s also had at least 37% of the team’s air yards in all three of those contests, so he’s getting downfield as well. It’s elite utilization for any pass catcher, let alone a tight end.
The Rams defense has been middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position this season, and Loveland stands out as underpriced across the industry. He’s the most appealing Bears’ pass catcher on this slate.
Deciphering the Bears’ WR corps is a bit trickier. They have three guys who have all looked like their top receiver at times this season: Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and Luther Burden.
Odunze started the year red hot, but he cooled off in the middle of the year. He missed the last few games of the regular season with an injury, though he was able to return to the lineup for their Divisional Round contest. Unfortunately, Odunze was on the field for just 72% of the team’s pass plays, and he amassed just a 14% target share. There’s some room for growth with Odunze on Sunday, but he hasn’t cracked double-digit PPR points since Nov. 9 vs. the Giants. He’s the most expensive option of the trio, and that’s tough to justify at the moment.
Moore led the team in route participation last week, and he responded with the best fantasy performance. However, that was due primarily to the fact that he caught a touchdown. The rest of his utilization metrics are pretty underwhelming, including just a 13% air-yards share.
Burden has the best projections of the trio. He’s projected for more fantasy points than both guys, despite checking in with a significantly cheaper price tag. His role has grown as the season has progressed, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate in the Flex spot among the non-stud options on this slate.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers have the edge in projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, and both are also showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs.
- Blake Corum ($4,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) – Given the difference in price, Corum is arguably the preferred RB to target in Los Angeles on DraftKings. He had 11 carries and two targets last week, and the only difference between him and Williams is that Williams was able to find the paint.
- Kyle Monangai ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – The same sentiment can be applied to the Bears’ RBs. Monangai has had a comparable workload to Swift in recent games, and he has a better projected Plus/Minus than his more heralded teammate.
- Colby Parkinson ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – The Rams have used a lot of tight ends this season, but Parkinson emerged as their best down the stretch. His utilization wasn’t the best vs. the Panthers, but he did secure the game-winning touchdown catch on a beautiful throw from Stafford. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games, so he can undoubtedly be targeted at this cheap price tag.
- Tyler Higbee ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Higbee returned for the Rams in Week 18, and he has definitely cut into Parkinson’s workload. He’s posted a 53% route participation since returning from injury, and he’s been targeted on 20% of his routes run. He’s another viable value option.
- Cole Kmet ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Kmet has fallen way behind Loveland in the pecking order at tight end, and he failed to catch either of his two targets last week. He did have one carry last week, but I wouldn’t expect that to be a regular occurrence.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Zaccheaus caught one of Williams’ two touchdown passes vs. the Packers, but he had just a 26% route participation. His touchdown came on his only catch of the game, and he finished with just two targets overall.
- Xavier Smith ($1,200 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – The Rams have one of the most condensed passing attacks in the league, which doesn’t leave much for their role players. However, Smith was on the field for 50% of their pass plays last week. That gives him some potential as a punt play.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Bob Donnan, Imagn
