NFL Week 17 features a Sunday Night Football contest with playoff implications. The San Francisco 49ers will host the Chicago Bears, with both teams still alive for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
The Bears were not expected to contend for the top spot in the conference this year, but they have won 11 of their first 15 games. That said, it’s still to be determined if they’re legit threats. They have an expected record of just 8.3-6.7 based on point differential, and most of their success can be attributed to a 7-2 record in one-score games. Still, they’ve won 11 of their past 13 games after starting the year 0-2, and their offense has become one of the best in football under head coach Ben Johnson.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have been afterthoughts in the NFC West for most of the year. The Rams and Seahawks have gotten most of the attention, but the 49ers are still very dangerous. Their offense is first in the league in EPA per play in games with Brock Purdy under center, and they’re coming off 48 points against the Colts just last week. Their defense is more of a question mark, so both offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this contest.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Christian McCaffrey has turned in another vintage McCaffrey season. While he hasn’t been quite as efficient a runner as in years past, he’s made up for it through sheer volume. He has the largest workload in football, leading the league with 372 touches through his first 15 games. Jonathan Taylor is No. 2 in that department, and he’s well behind at 329.
McCaffrey is also dominant in two of the most important areas for fantasy production: pass catching and touchdown scoring. No RB in football can match McCaffrey’s involvement as a receiver. He leads the position with a 23% target share, and he’s tied for sixth in the entire league in receptions. The only players with more receptions are Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Trey McBride, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who are five of the most dominant pass catchers in the entire league. McCaffrey is right up there with that quintet while still averaging 18.7 carries per game.
McCaffrey has also found the paint 16 times this season, which ranks second in the NFL. He had two receiving touchdowns last week, and he has eight total scores over his past five games.
Add it all up, and McCaffrey leads all players with an average of 25.1 PPR points per game this season. He’s proven that as long as he’s healthy, he’s still the top dog for fantasy purposes.
There’s no reason to shy away from McCaffrey in this spot. The Bears have done a decent job against RBs this season, as they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per game to the position, but McCaffrey is as matchup-proof as it gets. He could also benefit from even more touches than usual with George Kittle not expected to suit up.
He ultimately ranks first on the slate in median and Plus/Minus projection, and he’s No. 2 from a ceiling standpoint. He’s showing up as the optimal Captain in Sim Labs in nearly 33% of the simulations, which is easily the top mark on the slate.
Purdy is the other 49ers stud to consider in this spot. He’s been limited to just seven games this season due to injury, but he’s been fantastic when he’s been on the field. He’s averaged just under 250 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns, and he had five touchdown tosses last week vs. the Colts.
Purdy has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one start this season, and he’s had back-to-back games with at least 27.2 DraftKings points. He’s even displayed a bit more upside as a runner in recent outings. He’s had at least six carries in two of his past four games, and he had a rushing touchdown in one of the two exceptions.
The matchup for Purdy is also solid. The Bears have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers, and the 49ers are implied for a very healthy 27.5 points. It’s a great opportunity for Purdy to keep the production rolling, and he has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models.
Caleb Williams is the Bears’ top fantasy option. He hasn’t displayed the same upside as Purdy recently, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. Those have come against the Packers and Browns, who are two tough defensive teams. The 49ers shouldn’t present the same level of challenge, and Williams leads the slate with a +2.6 Opponent Plus/Minus.
However, Williams will be on the road in this contest, which has not been a good thing for his fantasy prospects. He’s had pretty drastic home/road splits to start his NFL career, averaging just 15.92 DraftKings points per game outside of Soldier Field (per the Trends tool). That figure would be even lower if not for a 38.7 DraftKings-point outlier against the Bengals’ horrendous defense. Williams has had less than 20 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 road starts, and he’s been below 13 DraftKings points in six of them.
The Bears have also gone increasingly run-heavy as the season has progressed, and they’re down to 24th in Dropback Over Expectation for the year. Ultimately, Williams has a pretty low floor and ceiling, making him the weakest option in the stud tier.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Both of these teams are dealing with some key absences in their pass-catching corps. The 49ers are expected to be without Kittle, while the Bears have already ruled out Rome Odunze. That opens up some opportunities for the rest of the roster.
For the 49ers, Jauan Jennings should serve as their No. 1 option. He has a 22% target share since Purdy returned to the lineup, and he’s finished as a top-20 PPR receiver in four straight games. He hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling over that time frame, but he has scored at least 18.1 PPR points in back-to-back games. He’s scored a touchdown in four straight and six of his past seven, and he could pick up a few additional targets vs. the Bears. Jennings also remains very reasonably priced at $8,600.
The good news for the 49ers is that Ricky Pearsall is expected to return for the 49ers on Sunday night. How much he’ll actually play remains to be seen, and he doesn’t grade out particularly well in our NFL models.
However, Pearsall is just slightly behind Jennings in terms of target share this season, and he was targeted on 29% of his routes run in his last outing. He had 15.6 PPR points despite exiting the game early, so he clearly has some upside. He also has an outstanding +0.82 correlation with Purdy, so he’s an interesting contrarian stacking partner.
For the Bears, D.J. Moore and Luther Burden should do most of the heavy lifting at receiver, although Moore was added to the injury report Sunday morning and is now listed as questionable with an illness. Burden joined Odunze on the sidelines last week, which allowed Moore to finish with a season-high 97 yards. He also found the paint for the second-straight week, and he finished with at least 21.9 DraftKings points in both contests.
That said, it’s hard to get too excited about Moore’s utilization in those contests. He had just five targets vs. the Browns, and his success stemmed from the fact that he found the end zone twice. He needed overtime to get the job done vs. the Packers last week, with 46 of his receiving yards and his lone touchdown coming in the extra frame. Overall, he’s had just a 22% target share over his two breakout contests, so he’s relied on efficiency much more than volume. He’s still a talented player, but he feels overpriced at $8,400.
Burden is the more enticing option. Before going down with an injury, Burden appeared on the verge of a breakout. He had a 27% target share in his last game, despite a meager 50% route participation. Ultimately, he was targeted on a ridiculous 44% of his routes run. Burden also had a 21% target share in the game prior, and he finished with double-digit DraftKings points in both outings.
Burden isn’t going to be an every-snap player for the Bears on Sunday night, but he should be featured when he’s on the field. His raw projections are ultimately comparable to Moore’s, making him the clear target at a much cheaper price tag, and that’s assuming both players play.
While McCaffrey dominates the opportunities in the 49ers backfield, the Bears use more of a committee approach. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have split the opportunities in recent weeks. Swift has had more carries, but Monangai has had the edge in high-value touches. Specifically, he’s had 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line over the Bears’ past two outings.
Swift still profiles as the team’s lead runner, and he has the superior projections in this contest. That said, the gap between the two players is shrinking, and neither stands out as a true “must play.”
Kenrick Bourne rounds out this tier, but he should revert to a reserve role with Pearsall back in action. He had a route participation below 50% in his last game alongside Pearsall, and he finished with just a 5% target share in Pearsall’s last full contest.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. As you would expect, the kickers have the edge in projected Plus/Minus in a game with a sizable total. However, the Bears stand out as the most undervalued option in Sim Labs, with their optimal lineup rate exceeding their projected ownership by roughly 4.5%.
- Colston Loveland ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Loveland has cemented his status as the Bears’ top tight end in recent weeks. He’s coming off an 82% route participation last week, which was his top mark of the season. That didn’t lead to an uptick in fantasy production, but his stock is clearly on the rise. He had double-digit PPR points in three of his previous four outings, making him a very reasonable option at these figures.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Zaccheaus loses some appeal with Burden returning to the fold, but he should still see some opportunities as the team’s No. 3 receiver, although like Moore, he also popped up with a late questionable tag. He had a route participation of nearly 80% and a double-digit target share in Weeks 14 and 15 with Odunze sidelined and Burden available, so assuming he plays, he’s still somewhat viable, and he’ll get an extra boost if Moore is sidelined as well.
- Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Robinson has played more than Bourne in three-receiver sets with both Jennings and Pearsall healthy. That would seemingly make him the tertiary receiver to target in San Francisco. However, that hasn’t necessarily led to any real production; he has just a 4% target share for the year, and he’s been targeted on just 7% of his routes run.
- Brian Robinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Robinson is the backup RB in San Francisco, and he typically gets around 5-8 carries per game. That number tends to be on the higher side in games that the 49ers are winning, so he’s best used in lineups built around a 49ers blowout.
- Jake Tonges ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Tonges provided nice fantasy value when Kittle was sidelined earlier this season, so he would be an easy choice as long as Kittle is officially ruled out. He has the best projected Plus/Minus among all players outside the stud tier.
- Cole Kmet ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Kmet has fallen behind Loveland in the pecking order, but he’s maintained a decent role in the offense. He has a double-digit target share in four straight games, so he’s an interesting value target.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Juszczyk is always a threat for a couple of touches each week, and those could presumably come near the goal line.
- Luke Farrell ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Farrell would be the 49ers’ TE2 if Kittle is ruled out. However, he had just a 29% route participation and 3% target share in Weeks 2 through 6 when Kittle was sidelined.
Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn
