NFL Week 5 kicks off with a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Los Angeles Rams will host the San Francisco 49ers, and they’re listed as 8.5-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 44.5.
Unfortunately, the 49ers are dealing with a ton of injuries at the moment. Quarterback Brock Purdy will miss his third game of the season, while George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings will also be out of the lineup. That significantly dampens their offensive potential.
Meanwhile, the Rams are firing on all cylinders. They enter this contest at 3-1, and their only loss came to the Eagles on a blocked field goal. They bounced back with a win over the previously undefeated Colts in Week 4, and they’re up to fourth in the league in yards per game.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Puka Nacua is off to a phenomenal start in 2025, putting his name in the conversation for “best receiver in football.” At a minimum, he has to be considered the best receiver in fantasy for the time being, with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase playing with backup quarterbacks and CeeDee Lamb out with an injury.
Nacua leads the league in receptions (42) and receiving yards (503), resulting in an average of more than 10 catches and 125 receiving yards per game. He’s also added 52 rushing yards and two total touchdowns, bringing his average to 27.4 PPR points per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks a distant second at 23.6, and no other receiver is even above 19.9. Ultimately, the gap between Nacua and the rest of the receivers in fantasy feels pretty massive.
Nacua unsurprisingly has some of the best utilization in football. He has a massive 38% target share through four weeks, which is the top mark in the league. He’s not quite as dominant in terms of air yards share (39%), but he’s been at 44% or better in back-to-back weeks.
The only thing keeping Nacua from a truly historic start has been his two touchdowns. He’s yet to receive an end zone target this season, with his two scores coming on a 45-yard run and a slant inside the red zone. Just three of his 50 targets have come inside the red zone, so he has the potential for even more production if that changes moving forward.
The 49ers stand out as a neutral matchup. They’re 16th in pass defense EPA, though they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers. Nacua has a decent track record vs. San Francisco, averaging 21.67 DraftKings points and a +4.64 Plus/Minus in three career matchups (per the Trends tool).
Ultimately, he has the top ceiling projection on the slate, and he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus.
Christian McCaffrey is the only player who nudges Nacua from a value standpoint. As good as Nacua’s workload has been, it pales in comparison to what McCaffrey has done this season. Despite entering the year with some injury concerns, McCaffrey has handled a massive load for the shorthanded 49ers’ offense. He’s averaged a whopping 28 opportunities per game (rushing attempts + targets), making him one of the busiest players in football.
McCaffrey’s pass-catching prowess has always been his best attribute, and he’s seen elite volume in that department this season. He’s racked up at least 10 targets in all but one game, and he owns a massive 29% target share for the year. De’Von Achane ranks second in that department, and he’s all the way down at 22%. He had a season-high 15 targets in one of his outings without Purdy this season, so he figures to be extremely active in that capacity once again on Thursday.
McCaffrey is also seeing plenty of work as a runner, though he hasn’t been nearly as productive as usual in that department. He’s handled 72% of the team’s designed rushing attempts, but he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. That’s well below his 4.7 career average, and he averaged 5.4 yards per attempt in his lone full season with the 49ers.
Still, it hasn’t stopped him from racking up fantasy points. He’s scored at least 22.7 DraftKings points in all four games, resulting in a positive Plus/Minus in each. The Rams are a tough matchup – McCaffrey owns a slate-worst -8.0 Opponent Plus/Minus – but there’s no denying his upside when healthy. He’s projected for less ownership than Nacua, but his optimal lineup rate is 5% higher in the Captain spot per Sim Labs.
Matthew Stafford rounds out the stud tier, and he’s coming off his best game of the season in Week 4. He finished with 375 passing yards and three touchdowns, resulting in more than 30 DraftKings points.
That stands out as a bit of an outlier. The Rams have been a neutral team in terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation this season, and Stafford attempted 33 passes or fewer in each of his first three games. He got to 41 last week in a game where the Rams trailed in the fourth quarter, but that number could come crashing back to reality vs. San Francisco. They’re listed as significant favorites vs. the 49ers, so the team could lean a bit heavier on the run than they did last week.
Still, Stafford has historically averaged just under 20 DraftKings points when favored by at least a touchdown as a member of the Rams. That would be more than good enough to justify a spot in your lineup, and his optimal lineup rate is nearly 75% in the flex spot. Quarterbacks always have massive appeal in the single-game format, and Stafford is no exception.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
All of the 49ers’ injuries give us one of the smallest groups of midrange players we’ll see all season. The group is even smaller on FanDuel, where Mac Jones is priced at just $1,000. It goes without saying that Jones is a must at that price tag. He’s scored 21.76 and 14.26 FanDuel points in his two starts, and he leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus by a massive margin. The only question is whether he should be your MVP choice on that site, but he should be utilized in 100% of lineups.
It’s a bit trickier on DraftKings, where Jones is more accurately priced at $9,200. That’s still a fair number for a quarterback, but Jones is going to have to navigate a brutal matchup without a ton of help. The Rams are second in the league in pass defense EPA, and outside of McCaffrey, Jones will be without his three best pass-catchers. It could lead to a long night for the backup quarterback.
The good news is that the 49ers have not been afraid to air it out with Jones under center. He’s attempted at least 39 passes in both starts, and the offense has generally fared pretty similarly to how they have with Purdy. He has a slightly negative Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings, but he has the best ceiling projection outside of the stud tier.
If not for Nacua, Davante Adams’ production to start the year would be getting a lot more attention. The Rams have one of the most highly condensed passing attacks in football at the moment. Adams has a 28% target share through three weeks, which would be the best mark on most teams. It puts him well behind Nacua for the Rams, but it’s still an elite figure.
Adams is also dominating in some of the other metrics. He leads the team with a 40% air yards share, and he has a massive 89% end zone share. He’s the only player to see an end zone target in three straight weeks, giving him plenty of scoring upside. His 10 red zone targets are tied with St. Brown for the most in the league, and he’s responded with a touchdown in three straight games.
Adams has also unsurprisingly posted a positive correlation with his quarterback, but he also has a solid +0.05 mark with Nacua through four games. It means you can theoretically stack all three players together in this contest.
Kyren Williams could be the most intriguing player in this tier. His workload hasn’t been quite as strong as it was last season, with Blake Corum cutting into his production. He handled 78% of the team’s designed rushing attempts in 2024, but that figure is down to 68% in 2025.
Still, there could be more than enough work for both of them on Thursday. Big favorites tend to do extremely well at running back, and Williams has smashed in two career contests where favored by at least a touchdown. He’s scored at least 19.6 DraftKings points on both occasions.
He ranks fourth on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he’s popping in Sim Labs as an undervalued Captain option.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Rams Defense has the top projected Plus/Minus of the group, while Joshua Karty has the top optimal lineup of the quartet in Sim Labs.
- Kendrick Bourne ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – With their top three receivers sidelined (including Brandon Aiyuk), Bourne should be on the field for nearly every snap on Thursday. He leads the remaining receivers with an 11% target share for the year, so he could be their de facto No. 1 in this contest.
- Jake Tonges ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Tonges will serve as the 49ers’ top tight end with Kittle still sidelined. He’s not super appealing at his current price tag, but he at least has a 69% route participation and 11% target share over his three starts.
- Demarcus Robinson ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Robinson should join Bourne in most two-receiver sets. He was targeted on 15% of his routes run last week, so with more opportunities, he could potentially be the team’s No. 1 receiver. Bourne’s projections are slightly better in our NFL Models, but both players have plenty of appeal.
- Tutu Atwell ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Atwell scored a long touchdown to win the game vs. the Colts last week, and his deep speed makes him a threat to take any target to the house. However, he’s seen just five total targets for the year, and before last week’s big play, he had just one catch for four yards.
- Blake Corum ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Corum stands out as a strong option in this projected game script. Not only has he seen a bigger piece of the rushing workload this season, but he also has a carry from inside the five-yard line. If the Rams do build a big lead, Corum could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($2,600 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – MVS is another potential option in the shorthanded 49ers’ receiving corps. He’s been a minimal part of the equation through four weeks, but he could see more opportunities vs. the Rams.
- Brian Robinson ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Robinson has had a handful of opportunities each week, but he’s not providing the same standalone value that we’ve seen from the “power back” in San Francisco in the past. He likely needs a McCaffrey injury to truly shine.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DraftKings, $1,600 FanDuel) – Juszczyk is always a threat for a touch or two, and perhaps he gets more involved in the passing game on Thursday.
- Luke Farrell ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Farrell has been the 49ers’ No. 2 TE all year, and he’s seen a similar amount of target volume as Tonges of late. He’s not on the field for quite as many snaps, but he has some pass-catching upside.
- Davis Allen ($1,200 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – The Rams are down No. 1 TE Tyler Higbee on Thursday, opening up some opportunities for the rest of the players at the position.
- Jordan Whittington ($1,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Whittington saw a season-high 69% route participation last week, though he hasn’t had many opportunities from a target standpoint.
- Skyy Moore ($800 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Another potential 49ers receiver.
- Colby Parkington ($600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Parkington could be the top TE for the Rams on Thursday. He has nearly identical projections to Allen at a slightly lower cost.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Imagn
