I think a lot of people approach DFS tournaments and player exposure the wrong way. Sure, a guy might be projected for high ownership, but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. His range of outcomes is just as important. Imagine for a moment that a player with the slate’s highest projected ceiling was minimum-priced on DraftKings or FanDuel. Should you fade that player simply because he’s X-percent owned?
There’s definitely a line in which it is +EV to gain leverage on the field and fade that player. But GPP plays should always be about maximizing ceiling outcomes — after all, the point of GPPs is to win the whole thing. The players you want to avoid, therefore, are those who have high ownership rates and low ceilings. Wayne Gallman, for example, doesn’t have a super elite ceiling and is likely to be highly-owned. That’s an easier fade than, say, DeAndre Hopkins, who should be popular but also has a massive ceiling. Again, ownership matters, but so does range of outcomes. That combination is key to our proprietary Leverage score in our NFL Models.
Anyway, let’s discuss some players for Week 4. Using FantasyLabs’ Leverage score, I’ll dig through the data to identify those contrarian plays for tournaments.