The Primetime Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL Content Dashboard.
Game Flow
Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Seahawks averaged the second-highest run/pass split in the NFL from 2012-2015, but last year the offense struggled to run the ball behind an offensive line ranking 26th in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate. It was the only time offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has called plays for a team not in the top-10 in rushing attempts and was also the first in which he coordinated an offense faster than 26th in neutral pace (18th). So far this season, the offense has skewed toward the pass with 61.3 percent of their offensive plays (12th), and they’re operating at the third-fastest pace in the NFL through three games, averaging 28.27 seconds per play in neutral situations (Football Outsiders). Historically, the Seahawks have won games by playing good defense, running the football, and playing slowly; that has not been the recipe so far this year.
With Andrew Luck behind center, the Colts have gone from ninth to 13th in pass attempts over the past two seasons in an effort to bring some semblance of balance to the offense. Colts offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has historically been balanced whenever he’s had a competent quarterback. Naturally, the committee of Scott Tolzien and Jacoby Brissett has forced a significant switch in style in 2017. Indianapolis has thrown on just 51.1 percent of their offensive plays — fifth-fewest in the NFL. Interestingly, they have continued to play at an above-average pace (30.21 seconds per play) in comparison to last year (30.36 seconds per play). Without Luck, the offense is likely to keep playing fast and slant toward the run.
The over/under is currently at 41.5 points — the second-lowest mark of the entire week — and the spread favors the Seahawks at home by 13 points. The very low total might be a bit surprising considering these teams’ pace of play, as well as their defenses in 2017: Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most yards through the air; inversely, Seattle has allowed the fourth-most yards on the ground to start the season. Per our Week 4 Vegas Report, Seattle is one of three teams to go 0-3 against the spread (ATS) to start the year.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins
Andy Reid’s offense has played at a bottom-five pace in three of his four years in Kansas City. Their 36.78 seconds per play in neutral situations this season is the slowest mark in the league (Football Outsiders). The Chiefs have yet to rank higher than 20th in pass attempts in any season, and they have strung together four consecutive winning seasons by controlling the ball with the ground game. The team will likely continue to rely on the running game — the Chiefs have been in the top-half of the league in rushing attempts each of the last four years — and Alex Smith will be counted on to make short and efficient throws that put his athletic wide receivers and tight ends in position to make plays.
The Redskins skew toward the pass: They ranked top-10 in yards per play each of the last three seasons, as well as eighth in pass/run ratio last year at just the 26th-fastest neutral pace (Football Outsiders). So far, the Redskins are actually the ninth-most run-heavy team in the league, passing just 53.6 percent of the time and operating at the 21st-fastest pace. Given the change, it’s possible the transition back to Jay Gruden as play-caller is more significant than predicted.
The over/under is currently at 49.5 points — the highest mark of the week — and the spread favors the Chiefs at home by 6.5 points. With Kansas City likely to be in control, this game could certainly move at a below-average pace. Also, both of these teams have owned top-10 defenses to start the year, which makes the under on this game intriguing. The Chiefs were 10-6 hitting the under in 2016, and they’re one of only two teams to remain undefeated against the spread in all three weeks.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: $8,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Wilson broke out for four passing touchdowns in Week 3 and also had seven of the Seahawks’ 22 rushing attempts. The Colts defense was 26th in pass DVOA last year, and Wilson is the consensus highest-rated quarterback in Models for not just the primetime slate but the entire 16-game slate.
Alex Smith: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
With a league-leading 77.4 percent completion rate and 132.7 quarterback rating, the fourth-highest yards per attempt (9.2), and second-most passing touchdowns (seven), Smith may actually carry more upside this season than in years past. As a home favorite since 2014, he’s posted a ridiculously-low ownership rate of 1.7 percent in large-field guaranteed prize pools.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt: $9,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Since the merger, only five rookie running backs have surpassed 300 yards rushing in their team’s first three games.
- Cadillac Williams (434 rushing yards, 88 attempts)
- Mike Anderson (318, 63)
- LaDainian Tomlinson (310, 84)
- Matt Forte (304, 73)
- Ben Tate (301, 66)
Hunt has 401 rushing yards on just 47 attempts to start 2017. Washington surrendered the fifth-most DraftKings points to the position last year (27.9 per game).
Chris Thompson: $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Thompson’s Week 3 performance on Monday Night Football puts him in elite company. Only nine times in NFL history has a running back accumulated 150 or more receiving yards in a single game, the last being Le’Veon Bell (159) in 2014. That said, the Chiefs ranked as the fourth-best defense against the position in the passing game last year (per DVOA).
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Of players with 10 or more targets through three games, only Stefon Diggs (0.54) and Michael Crabtree (0.51) have scored more fantasy points per opportunity (PPO) than Hill (0.46). Tyfreak is currently tied with A.J. Green for the highest market share of air yards in the league (47 percent).
Doug Baldwin: $7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
To echo Matthew Freedman: I don’t mind the Sunday Night Football onslaught hammer, and Baldwin had massive home/road splits last year. That said, keep an eye on our NFL news feed, as Baldwin is currently a game-time decision for Sunday night. In games with comparable spreads at home, he has averaged 12.45 FanDuel PPG with a +3.16 Plus/Minus and a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: $6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Last year, Kelce led all tight ends in yards (1,125) and was second in receptions (85). Over the past two seasons, he has finished as a top-two tight end in yards after the catch. He trails only Rob Gronkowski at the position in yards after catch through three weeks.
Jack Doyle: $3,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
He put up a dud last week, but Doyle still owns a 19.75 percent target share (9th at the position) and could offer some salary relief against a Seattle defense that historically is vulnerable through the middle of the field.
Good luck this week and be sure to research for yourself with our entire suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
