This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Two years of play-calling data in Washington isn’t a huge sample, but it is notable that the Redskins were 24th and 29th in neutral pace the last two seasons under Sean McVay. Interestingly, he’s picked up the pace so far with the Rams. Through two games, they’ve run an offensive play every 27.98 seconds in neutral situations (Football Outsiders), which is the third-fastest pace in the NFL and much faster than the 2016 league-average (30.56). Those Washington teams skewed toward the pass, especially last year when they were eighth in pass/run ratio, seventh in pass attempts, and second in passing yards. The running game never finished in the top-12 in attempts or yards, but the Rams have started 2017 run-heavy, passing just 52.21 percent of the time.
As a play-caller, Kyle Shanahan has gone to extremes over the last nine years, but he usually runs an offense that caters to his players. Through two games, they have run an offensive play every 31.55 seconds (18th) and have passed on 66.67 percent of their plays. That number should regress, but it’s notable that they have been the ninth-most pass-heavy team in the NFL to start the season.
For the second straight week, Thursday Night Football will feature the lowest over/under of the week (39.5). The 2.5-point spread favors the Rams on the road, although they have a predictably middling implied total (21). Second-year quarterback Jared Goff has looked more confident under McVay, but his development is still a work in progress; he threw a key interception late against the Redskins last week.
The 49ers defense held Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to just 12 points in Week 2, but that may say more about Seattle than San Francisco. Their front seven should be improved after adding first-round picks Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster, and it’s hard not to be: They gave up 33.7 DraftKings PPG to the running back position in 2016. They were not particularly great in the secondary either, finishing with the fourth-worst pass defense last year (per DVOA).
This game likely won’t have high ownership, but Goff and his pass-catchers could be stacked together to make a contrarian lineup. In that case, it could be wise to run game stacks back with Pierre Garcon, who has averaged 7.5 targets per game through two weeks. Garcon has a fantasy points correlation value (based on positions) of 0.28 with Goff and a 0.25 ownership correlation (per our NFL Correlations page), although the latter data point could be lower in this matchup. Fantasy players usually undervalue game stacks, so here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Goff:
The ownership correlation between Goff, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, and Garcon will be low, despite the fact that they have very correlated outcomes. If you use our Correlations page to filter by game-specific Vegas data, you will notice the ownership levels in particular drop significantly.
Jared Goff, QB
Goff had one of the worst rookie campaigns of all time, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes while producing an amazingly-low 4.3 AY/A mark and a pathetic 47.5 quarterback rating under pressure (PFF). He attempted just 2.4 passes per game over 20 yards. That said, through two weeks, he’s looked much better than he did at any point last season and has passed deep 4.5 times per game. Still, Goff needs to prove he can be consistent before he can be considered as much more than a contrarian flyer in tournaments.
Todd Gurley, RB
His volume should be secure: He’s owned a 74.47 percent rushing market share through two games and a team-high three opportunities inside the 10-yard line. That said, he was terribly inefficient last year, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (YPC). Volume is important, however, and according to our Models his 24-point projected ceiling is the top mark in this game.
Sammy Watkins, WR
Per our Rams Fantasy Preview, over the last two seasons Watkins has averaged 16.4 DraftKings PPG in the 15 games in which he’s played at least 70 percent of the snaps. His 12.5 percent target share in 2017 is concerning, but he should run most of his routes against PFF’s No. 74 CB in Rashard Robinson in Week 3 (per our NFL Matchups Dashboard). The 49ers were 31st in the NFL at defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers in 2016.
Cooper Kupp, WR
Kupp has an underappreciated chance of leading the Rams in targets — he’s done just that through the first two weeks — and even though Goff has attempted just four passes in the red zone, two have gone to Kupp. He’s currently Goff’s preferred target and one of the top volume plays at receiver in this game with a plus matchup against K’Waun Williams in the slot.
Carlos Hyde, RB
With a 72.73 percent rushing market share, Hyde is clearly Shanahan’s new workhorse:
Opportunity is everything for running backs, and over the past two seasons as a home underdog, Hyde has historically averaged 15.52 DraftKings PPG and a +5.05 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). He currently owns the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all RBs in Week 3.
Pierre Garcon, WR
Garcon is familiar with Shanahan’s offense and led the league with 113 receptions on 181 targets in 2013. There’s volume-based appeal here — he leads the team with 15 targets through two weeks — and has a plus matchup on the outside against CB Nickell Robey-Coleman.
Marquise Goodwin, WR
Goodwin has strong field-stretching ability (4.27-second 40) and leads the team with a 44.0 percent market share of air yards. That said, Trumaine Johnson is far from a favorable matchup on the outside. However, if you are looking to save salary, Goodwin is the type of player that can pay off his low $3,500 salary on one big play.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned, as well as keep you up to date with our NFL Week 3 Injury Dashboard. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
