NBA Player Props (Thursday, Feb. 16): Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 Points?

Thursday night features a tiny three-game slate before the league breaks for the NBA All-Star Weekend. We will provide a player prop for each of the three games on this slate as we attempt to hit a three-leg parlay. These are the best props using our tools, so let’s win some money heading into the weekend!

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NBA Player Prop Picks

Zach LaVine Under 28.5 Points

The Bulls are the most significant underdogs on this slate, despite playing at home on Thursday. They’re taking on the Bucks, and these teams are going in opposite directions: the Bucks have won 11 consecutive games while the Bulls have lost five straight. This is also a back-to-back for the Bulls, who got a massive 35-point performance from Zach LaVine in the loss last night. However, DeMar DeRozan missed that contest but has a chance to return to action vs. the Bucks.

With or without DeRozan, getting to 29 points against this elite Bucks defense is a big ask. LaVine is averaging 24.1 points per game this season and has scored 18 and 24 points against the Bucks in their previous two meetings. During those games, LaVine has shot just 40% from the field and has played 38.5 minutes per game. The Bucks’ defense is no joke, ranking second in Defensive Rating while allowing opponents to shoot just 45.4% from the field.

Even if DeRozan remains out, there are plenty of ways for LaVine to go under in this spot.

Mike Conley Over 6.5 Assists

Newly acquired Mike Conley seems to be the ideal fit for the Timberwolves, who traded away their entire future for Rudy Gobert in the offseason. Capturing assists and working the pick-n-roll is one of the many reasons the Timberwolves traded for Conley. In 43 games with the Jazz, Conley averaged a career-high 7.7 assists per game. Expect Conley’s minutes to continue to ramp up as he played 32 minutes last game and recorded a game-high nine assists.

This matchup with the Wizards features the highest total on the slate at 234.5 points. There will be plenty of opportunities to reach this over, as the Timberwolves have played at the fifth-fastest Pace in the league. Conley still has a great floater and can get it cooking from the perimeter, but the 35-year-old has evolved into a pass-first point guard. Whether he’s kicking to Anthony Edwards on the wing or working the two-man game with Gobert, Conley’s over looks fantastic.

Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 Points

In the last game of the night, the Suns are hosting the Clippers in a potential Western Conference Finals matchup. The Suns are one-point home favorites, and both teams are starting to find their groove heading into the All-Star Break. Kawhi Leonard is our last player prop to target on this slate, as this line is way off compared to sportsbooks. No House Advantage has Leonard’s points prop at 24.5 points, but several other books across the industry have this at 28.5 points.

Leonard is expected to play around 32-34 minutes, but that is more than enough time for him to reach this over. Last game, Leonard scored 33 points while shooting 12 of 17 from the field and 7 of 9 from behind the arc in 34 minutes. The Suns rank inside the top 10 in Defensive Rating and the top five in points allowed. Luckily, Leonard is matchup-proof and can thrive against any team. He’s projected for 27.6 points in our NBA Models, putting him well over this number.

You can also head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.

Get a 100% Deposit Match up to $100!

Promo Code: Labs

New users only

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