NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, May 17): Jayson Tatum or Jimmy Butler?

Wednesday features Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics are listed as eight-point home favorites, while the total sits at 211.0.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Choosing between Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler for the top spot is a tough choice on Wednesday. Butler has been arguably the MVP of the Eastern Conference playoffs – no one can compete with Nikola Jokic in the West – averaging 31.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. Overall, he’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is just slightly behind Tatum’s mark of 1.34.

Still, Tatum has been the superior player over the bulk of the year. He’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute this season, while Butler is at 1.28. That’s a much larger gap than the current prices suggest. Tatum is also playing as much as anyone in basketball during the postseason, logging at least 41.7 minutes in five of his past seven games. He absolutely erupted in Game 7 vs. the 76ers, scoring 51 points with 13 rebounds, giving him a slightly higher ceiling than Butler as well.

Ultimately, Tatum seems like the better option, which is reflected in our NBA Models. His median projection is roughly 3.5 points higher, while the ceiling gap is closer to five.

Even though I give a slight edge to Tatum over Butler at Captain, there’s no denying that Butler is worthy of a roster spot. His production during the playoffs has been absolutely insane, scoring at least 49.25 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games. His numbers were slightly down vs. the Knicks, but they’ve played at the fourth-slowest pace during the postseason. The Celtics represent an upgrade from a matchup perspective, especially since their defense has slipped a bit during the playoffs.

Playing both together – especially with one at Captain – is going to be difficult on this slate. That said, it’s how I’ll be approaching most of my lineup builds. The name of the game for Showdown slates is finding a way to jam as many studs into your lineup as possible. In fact, the optimal lineup for Tuesday’s matchup between the Lakers and Nuggets featured a $1,000 player who scored zero DraftKings points. Taking a zero from someone meant that you could get Anthony Davis at Captain alongside Jokic, Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Rui Hachimura, and that five-man combination outscored any possible six-man combo. That’s not as rare as you might think in the single-game format.

Jaylen Brown is the toughest option to make a case for in the stud tier. Brown has been a solid Robin to Tatum’s Batman, but we can’t play everyone, and Brown provides the least value among the top three options. He’s averaged just 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, putting him well behind Tatum and Butler, while he’s significantly more expensive than the rest of the options on this slate

Brown’s biggest issue has been a lack of peripherals, averaging just 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists during the playoffs. With the other top options threats for double-doubles, Brown would have to do a ton of scoring to keep up. That’s certainly possible, but I’m willing to roll the dice on the other options.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

If you’re looking to save a bit of salary at Captain, Bam Adebayo is probably your best bet. He hasn’t been at his best to start the postseason, but he remains capable of contributing in every category across the board. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he was a solid contributor vs. the Celtics during the regular season. He averaged 25.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in four games vs. Boston, and he’s a threat in the defensive categories as well.

Adebayo has also displayed triple-double upside during the postseason, scoring 56.5 DraftKings points in the closeout win over the Bucks. That makes him underpriced for his ceiling, and he leads all players on the slate in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus as well.

Adebayo also stands out as a great target using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

Al Horford has gotten more expensive as the playoffs have progressed, but he’s been worth the investment on most nights. The veteran may not be quite as productive as he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of impacting the game in multiple ways. Case in point: he had 34.0 DraftKings points in Game 7 vs. the 76ers despite scoring just six points. Horford doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value on this slate, but he’s always a threat for 30+ fantasy points.

The Celtics are a bit crowded in the backcourt, especially since moving Robert Williams into the starting lineup. Still, Marcus Smart’s playing time is secure for the time being. He’s played 39.2 and 41.7 minutes in Williams’ two starts, so the big man’s minutes are coming at the expense of some of the other players on the roster.

Smart is projected for another 37 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, and he’s averaged an excellent 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He stands out as the best option in this price range in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s an absolute steal at just $9,500 on FanDuel. He leads the entire FanDuel slate with a 92% Bargain Rating.

Kyle Lowry looked finished during the regular season, but it turns out he may have just been playing possum. He’s looked rejuvenated during the postseason, increasing his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and giving the team some much-needed scoring in place of Tyler Herro.

However, the Heat have been careful with Lowry’s minutes for most of the postseason, and he’s projected for less than 30 minutes in Game 1. He’s reached a point where he’s either going to need to be really efficient or start to play more minutes to justify his price tag, which makes him tough to roster on Wednesday.

Malcolm Brogdon is similar to Lowry on this slate. He’s also expected to play less than 30 minutes off the bench, but he is slightly more affordable at $6,200 on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 12 contests, but he hasn’t displayed a ton of upside over that time frame. Brogdon has also failed to crack 18.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.

The formula for Max Strus is pretty simple: if he knocks down 3-pointers, he’s going to provide value. He’s done that quite a bit recently, hitting at least three 3-pointers in four of his past five games. However, Boston was one of the stingiest defenses in the league during the regular season, particularly when it came to 3-pointers. They allowed just 11.8 made 3-pointers per game, which was the fifth-best mark in the league. Overall, this is a poor matchup for Strus.

Derrick White has been the biggest loser from Williams moving into the starting lineup. Not only did White lose his spot with the starters, but he’s not seeing much playing time off the bench. He’s played less than 20 minutes in back-to-back games, despite the Celtics playing a seven-man rotation in those contests. He is projected for closer to 25 minutes on this slate, but I think that might be a bit optimistic. He’s also the worst of the Celtics’ PGs from a per-minute standpoint, so he’s tough to roster on this slate.

Gabe Vincent is the Heat’s starting point guard, but he’s played fewer minutes than Lowry in two of the past three games. However, his salary has decreased to just $5,000 for Game 1 vs. the Celtics, giving him a bit of buy-low appeal. His ownership projection is also very reasonable on this slate.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Caleb Martin ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Martin is expected to see around 28 minutes on Wednesday, making him one of the safer options in this price range. However, his ceiling has been capped at around 22 DraftKings points with Butler in the lineup. That doesn’t give him much wiggle room at his current salary.
• Kevin Love ($4,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Love is overpriced on DraftKings, but he offers some value on FanDuel. His playing time has fluctuated between 15-20 minutes in the postseason, and Love has historically been an elite per-minute producer. He hasn’t shown that upside with the Heat, but he definitely has the potential to erupt.
• Robert Williams III ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Williams was reinserted into the starting lineup for Games 6 and 7 vs. the 76ers, and there’s no doubt that he makes a significant impact. The team increased their Net Rating by +4.7 points with Williams on the floor during the regular season, so he should continue to start as long as his knee can handle it. Williams has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he should play around 30 minutes if he stays in the starting unit. That makes him an outstanding per-dollar option and one of the best salary-savers on the slate.
• Duncan Robinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Robinson spent plenty of time on the pine over the past two years, but the team has dusted him off during the postseason. He was more impactful in the Bucks’ series than he was vs. the Knicks, but he has three performances with at least 25.75 DraftKings points during the playoffs. That gives him solid upside for his price tag.
• Grant Williams ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Once you fall out of the rotation during the postseason, it’s tough to get back in. Williams was pretty much a non-factor vs. the 76ers, and it’s very possible he doesn’t play at all again in Game 1 vs. the Heat. There’s a chance that Joe Mazzulla decides to use Williams as a defensive counter to Butler, but it’s tough to get behind Williams on this slate.
• Cody Zeller ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Zeller is easily my favorite of the min-priced options on this slate, and he should contribute some fantasy points. He’s played around 10 minutes per game during the postseason, and he’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute for the year. If guys like Tatum, Butler, and Adebayo go off, just a handful of points from Zeller could be enough to put him in the optimal lineup.