Tuesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
Tyrese Haliburton continues to put up big numbers during the postseason. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in his final four games vs. the Bucks in the first round, including at least 51.5 DraftKings points in the last two contests. He followed that up with 55.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Cavaliers. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason.
There’s no reason to expect much different in Game 2. Haliburton’s price tag has crept up to $9,000, but that’s still too cheap for the type of production he’s provided of late.
Value
Mike Conley stands out as an interesting value option at $3,600. He hasn’t been nearly as effective on a per-minute basis as he was last year, but he’s coming off more than 30 minutes in the team’s last contest. There’s no guarantee he plays that much again in Game 2 – we currently have him projected for 25 minutes – but he still has a chance to provide value. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.35 (per the Trends tool). If the Timberwolves choose to play small vs. the Warriors, Conley could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Fast Break
Darius Garland has missed the past three games for Cleveland, and he’s officially listed as questionable for Game 2 vs. the Pacers. He’s a viable target at $7,000 if he’s able to suit up, but if he isn’t, Ty Jerome should see an increase in responsibilities. He’s been phenomenal off the bench for Cleveland all year, and he racked up 38.75 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes with Garland sidelined in Game 1. Ultimately, Jerome would become one of the best values of the day in that scenario.
Brandin Podziemski wasn’t very productive in the Warriors’ last outing, but he racked up nearly 40 minutes of playing time. That bodes well for his future outlook. Podziemski has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time. He’s also priced at a slight discount on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a 75% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Garland isn’t the only question mark for the Cavaliers at the moment. Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter are also questionable, so it’s possible that the team is a bit shorthanded on Tuesday. Even if they are able to suit up, there’s no guarantee that they’re nearly as effective as usual.
That makes Donovan Mitchell an intriguing target. He posted a massive 42.9% usage rate in Game 1, and he finished with 47.75 DraftKings points. He did that despite shooting just 1-11 from 3-point range, so he has plenty of room for improvement moving forward. Mitchell ultimately saw a usage bump of +2.77% with Garland and Mobley off the floor during the regular season, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. Given his usage in Game 1, that feels like a pretty conservative estimate for his upside if both players are sidelined in Game 2.
Value
Donte DiVincenzo got off to a quiet start in his Timberwolves tenure, but he has become an important part of their rotation. He was instrumental in their win over the Lakers in the first round, and he provided plenty of value for DFS players as well. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games, and the lone exception was a game where he was limited with foul trouble. DiVincenzo has ultimately averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 28.6 minutes in three straight games. He should see at least that much playing time on Tuesday, making him a solid option at $5,000.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards also warrants consideration as a stud play. While Mitchell might be the superior option if the Cavs are shorthanded, Edwards is probably the better target if they’re at full strength. While the Cavs have a deep roster full of talented offensive players, the Timberwolves need Edwards to carry the load on a nightly basis. He’s projected for a slate-high 42 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, and he owns the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models. He had at least 48.25 DraftKings points in all but one game vs. the Lakers, and he displayed a ceiling of nearly 70.
Bennedict Mathurin is another potential punt play on this slate. His role for the Pacers has been minimal during the postseason, but he’s typically very involved when he’s on the floor. We saw that in Game 1 vs. the Cavaliers, racking up 21.75 DraftKings points in 23.4 minutes. Overall, he’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so there’s no reason he can’t duplicate that production on Tuesday. He’s simply too cheap at $3,500, resulting in a 90% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Small forward is easily the weakest position to pay up for on Tuesday. No one costs more than $5,600, so your options are limited from a ceiling standpoint.
Jaden McDaniels has the highest ceiling projection in our models, and he’s coming off a “trick-or-treat” series vs. the Lakers. His good games were incredibly good – he went for 37.75, 41.75, and 42.75 DraftKings points – but his bad games were really bad. He had 16.0 DraftKings points or fewer in the other two contests vs. Los Angeles, though he was limited to just 17.9 minutes in his last outing due to foul trouble. He should return to his usual workload on Tuesday, though he probably won’t be as vital to the Timberwolves’ success in this matchup as he was in Round 1.
Value
Speaking of “trick-or-treat,” I’m not sure anyone in the league fits that description better than Buddy Hield at the moment. His workload was all over the place for the Warriors in the first round, and they’ve struggled to settle on a starting five all season. However, Hield erupted for nine 3-pointers and 33 points in their decisive Game 7 win, so he’s likely earned a bigger role moving forward.
That makes him a nice target at just $4,200. He’s projected for 30 minutes vs. the Timberwolves, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.84. Hield obviously has a wide range of outcomes – he had just 3.25 DraftKings points in Game 6 before his Game 7 eruption – but he’s underpriced for his expected role moving forward.
Fast Break
Despite losing Game 1, the Cavs remain significant favorites in Game 2. As a result, their 118.25 implied team total is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin, and Max Strus is a cheap way to get some exposure. He had 27.25 DraftKings points in just under 32 minutes in Game 1, and he could see an even larger workload if the team is missing more players in Game 2. Even if they’re at full strength, Strus is still capable of paying off his current salary.
Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard have been phenomenal for the Pacers this postseason. While Nembhard’s positional eligibility limits his appeal – point guard and shooting guard are significantly deeper than small forward – Nesmith is worth considering. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler didn’t have the type of volume we would’ve expected in Game 7, but he made the most of it. He shot better than 50% from the field in his 44.7 minutes, and he added eight rebounds and seven assists. It was enough to get him to 43.0 DraftKings, which resulted in a slightly positive Plus/Minus.
Butler probably won’t need to play 44+ minutes on Tuesday, but that still feels like a floor outcome for him. Butler has now played a full workload in five playoff contests, and he’s scored at least 43.0 DraftKings points in each of them. He’s had more than 50 DraftKings points in three of them, and he has a long track record of elevating his play during the postseason. Ultimately, there’s no reason to shy away from “Playoff Jimmy” at this point.
Value
Naz Reid is an interesting buy-low candidate. His salary is down to $4,600, which represents a decrease of nearly -$1,000 since its peak this postseason. His ownership could also be lower than usual after posting a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games.
That said, each series in the NBA playoffs is different. Just because Reid wasn’t a huge factor vs. the Lakers doesn’t mean that will be the case vs. the Warriors. If Rudy Gobert isn’t able to stay on the floor – something we’ve seen plenty of against small teams in the playoffs – Reid could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Reid has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s the type of player who can greatly exceed that figure on certain nights. That gives him plenty of appeal at his current price tag, even if he doesn’t see a huge bump in minutes.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam hasn’t been a great source of value recently, which has caused his salary to dip to $7,200. He’s a viable buy-low target at that figure. He’s historically posted a Plus/Minus of +1.32 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pacers. In games where he plays at least 32 minutes – he’s currently projected for 34 in our NBA Models – that figure increases to +3.89.
Mobley would be another potential buy-low target if he’s able to suit up. He hasn’t had a great start to the playoffs, but he wasn’t really needed in Round 1 vs. the Heat. He finished with 40.0 DraftKings points across 35.8 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, so he could be poised for a bigger series. He’s also seen the biggest bump in production with Garland off the floor, so his absence would give him a significant boost.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The center position features a handful of players packed tightly together on the pricing spectrum. There’s ultimately not a ton separating the “studs” and “values.”
Myles Turner seems like the best combination of value and upside. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, but his playing time was typically capped during the regular season. That might not be as big of an issue in the playoffs. Turner has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s played at least 33.1 minutes in two straight. He ultimately finished with 38.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Cavaliers, and he ranks second in projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Value
Gobert’s ceiling is slightly lower than Turner’s, but he eclipses him in projected Plus/Minus. He’s coming off arguably the best game of his career in the close-out win over the Lakers, punishing their small frontcourt repeatedly in the paint. He had 27 points and 24 rebounds, including nine on the offensive glass. He has the potential to do the same vs. Golden State as long as he can survive on defense. Gobert ultimately has a wide range of outcomes, but his ceiling in this spot is undeniable for his price tag.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen is priced similarly to Gobert and Turner, and his outlook depends primarily on what happens with Mobley and Hunter. If both players are unexpectedly sidelined, Allen would likely be pressed into a larger role. If they’re available, Allen will likely be looking at a similar workload to Game 1. He was limited to just 30 minutes in that outing, which would make him less appealing than Gobert and Turner.
Finally, don’t sleep on Obi Toppin as a punt play in stars and scrubs builds. He’s only projected for 15 minutes, but he can do a lot of damage in that time. He had 19.75 DraftKings points in less than 15 minutes in Game 1, so he could find his way into the optimal lineup if multiple studs go off.
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Pictured: Tyrese Haliburton
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
