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NBA DFS Breakdown (Tuesday, May 4): Kings and Hornets Offer Value Due to Injury Woes

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Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. We’ll be breaking it all down using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models.


Point Guard

Stud

The Warriors were shorthanded last night vs. the Pelicans, and Steph Curry responded with 62.0 DraftKings points. He posted a usage rate of 41.1% in that contest, and he’s hit that threshold in each of his past three games. That usage rate is astronomical, and it grants him significant upside every time he’s on the floor.

Curry faces the Pelicans again on Tuesday, and he should be looking at another expanded workload. Kelly Oubre has already been ruled out with a wrist injury, and Curry has averaged 58.36 DraftKings points in nine games without Oubre this season. The Warriors’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks fifth on the slate, so there’s plenty to like about Curry’s fantasy prospects on Tuesday.

Value

The Kings remain without De’Aaron Fox, which means Delon Wright should continue to see a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Wright has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also in a great matchup vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Frank Jackson has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.32 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s logged at least 34.1 minutes in each of his past two games. Jackson has benefitted from the Pistons’ decision to rest some of their regulars recently: In fact, Detroit had seven players out of the lineup yesterday. We’re still waiting on the Pistons’ official injury report for Tuesday’s contest, so make sure to monitor the Labs Insiders tool for any updates. If Detroit is shorthanded once again, then Jackson is going to have plenty of appeal in DFS contests.

Terry Rozier leads the point guard position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He also benefits from the Hornets’ injury situation. They will be without five key players on today’s slate, so Rozier will be asked to carry a larger workload than usual.


Shooting Guard

Stud

Paul George stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He doesn’t carry as much upside with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, but his matchup vs. the Raptors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.36. That’s one of the top marks at the position.

Value

Malik Monk is another member of the Hornets who should take on a larger role on Tuesday. He played 27 minutes in his last game and responded with 22.0 DraftKings points. Furthermore, Monk has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with all five of the currently unavailable members of the Hornets off the floor this season. That makes him an excellent option on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Fast Break

Ty Jerome has been a wonderful source of fantasy value recently. He has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.86 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, and he’s coming off a 30.0-point fantasy performance on DraftKings in his last game. Jerome has increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a solid handful of minutes for the Thunder on Tuesday. He is massively underpriced at $3,500 on DraftKings, which results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Hamidou Diallo is another potential value option for the Pistons. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past four games, and his salary has decreased by $1,600 over the past month. Diallo is another player who will need several Pistons teammates to be ruled out of tonight’s contest in order for him to return value. Nonetheless, as long as that indeed happens, then Diallo is a very strong fantasy option.


Small Forward

Stud

Buddy Hield is expensive at $7,000 on FanDuel, but he has the chance to be a huge part of the Kings offense on Tuesday. Not only is Fox still out of the lineup, but Tyrese Haliburton has also been ruled out, and Harrison Barnes is doubtful. That leaves the Kings without three of their most important players. Hield has increased his usage rate to 28.5% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.

Value

Kent Bazemore’s fantasy salary continues to increase, but he’s still too cheap across the industry. Bazemore played 31.6 minutes yesterday vs. the Pelicans, and he is always an appealing option when he’s going to get significant playing time. He has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should be able to put together another strong performance in today’s rematch vs. the Pelicans.

Fast Break

If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, Justin James could be your guy. He’s priced at the absolute minimum and is coming off 19.7 minutes in his last outing. James is projected for a similar workload on today’s slate and boasts one of the strongest points-per-dollar projections in our NBA Models.

The Warriors were able to secure the win yesterday vs. the Pelicans, but New Orleans is favored on Tuesday. That gives the Pelicans the edge in terms of implied team total, which makes them an interesting team to target. Brandon Ingram leads the small forward position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his salary has decreased by $700 over the past month. His $7,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and Ingram has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.00 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pelicans (per the Trends tool).


Power Forward

Stud

The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Milwaukee Bucks. They are implied to score 122.0 points in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview vs. the Nets, which makes Giannis Antetokounmpo an appealing stud target. He stuffed the stat sheet on Sunday vs. the Nets, racking up 49 points, eight rebounds, four assists, one steal, and three blocks. Overall, he has increased his production to 1.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.

Antetokounmpo is priced down a bit on DraftKings as well, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Value

Marvin Bagley III is always going to carry the unfortunate designation of being the player drafted before Luka Doncic and Trae Young, which makes him this generation’s version of Sam Bowie. That said, Bagley has been productive when on the court early in his career. He has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should be asked to play a bunch for the Kings on Tuesday. Bagley finished with 40.25 DraftKings points over 34.1 minutes on Sunday, which makes him an elite target at his current price across the industry.

Fast Break

Kevin Durant is another potential stud target at the power forward position. He went toe-to-toe with Antetokounmpo on Sunday and has scored at least 62.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Durant has averaged a stout 1.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and head coach Steve Nash doesn’t seem too concerned about his workload despite his injury history. He’s an even better value than Antetokounmpo on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Jalen McDaniels has had some big games this season when the Hornets have been shorthanded, which makes him extremely appealing at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He is projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Power forward is absolutely loaded on Tuesday, but McDaniels is arguably the best pure value at the position on FanDuel.


Center

Stud

Center is usually loaded with stud options, but that’s not the case on Tuesday. Bam Adebayo is the only player priced above $7,000 on FanDuel. While he’s definitely a viable option at that price tag, I think we can do a bit better.

Instead, let’s focus on Richaun Holmes. He’s another member of the Kings who should see a few additional minutes given their current injury situation, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88 vs. the Thunder, which is one of the top marks at the position.

Value

The Hornets have a pair of value options at center. Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo are both priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and both players should see a solid handful of minutes vs. the Pistons. Zeller has been the more productive player on a per-minute basis, but Biyombo is projected for more minutes. That means Zeller offers a bit more upside, but Biyombo should provide a safer floor.

Fast Break

Steven Adams is currently listed as questionable; if Adams is ruled out, then Willy Hernangomez would be another potential value option. Hernangomez has played at least 25.1 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of those contests.

Brook Lopez stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He earns a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s a strong option vs. the Nets. Lopez is projected for 30.8 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. We’ll be breaking it all down using the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models.


Point Guard

Stud

The Warriors were shorthanded last night vs. the Pelicans, and Steph Curry responded with 62.0 DraftKings points. He posted a usage rate of 41.1% in that contest, and he’s hit that threshold in each of his past three games. That usage rate is astronomical, and it grants him significant upside every time he’s on the floor.

Curry faces the Pelicans again on Tuesday, and he should be looking at another expanded workload. Kelly Oubre has already been ruled out with a wrist injury, and Curry has averaged 58.36 DraftKings points in nine games without Oubre this season. The Warriors’ implied team total of 116.25 ranks fifth on the slate, so there’s plenty to like about Curry’s fantasy prospects on Tuesday.

Value

The Kings remain without De’Aaron Fox, which means Delon Wright should continue to see a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Wright has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s also in a great matchup vs. the Thunder, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Frank Jackson has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.32 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s logged at least 34.1 minutes in each of his past two games. Jackson has benefitted from the Pistons’ decision to rest some of their regulars recently: In fact, Detroit had seven players out of the lineup yesterday. We’re still waiting on the Pistons’ official injury report for Tuesday’s contest, so make sure to monitor the Labs Insiders tool for any updates. If Detroit is shorthanded once again, then Jackson is going to have plenty of appeal in DFS contests.

Terry Rozier leads the point guard position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He also benefits from the Hornets’ injury situation. They will be without five key players on today’s slate, so Rozier will be asked to carry a larger workload than usual.


Shooting Guard

Stud

Paul George stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He doesn’t carry as much upside with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, but his matchup vs. the Raptors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.36. That’s one of the top marks at the position.

Value

Malik Monk is another member of the Hornets who should take on a larger role on Tuesday. He played 27 minutes in his last game and responded with 22.0 DraftKings points. Furthermore, Monk has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with all five of the currently unavailable members of the Hornets off the floor this season. That makes him an excellent option on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Fast Break

Ty Jerome has been a wonderful source of fantasy value recently. He has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.86 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, and he’s coming off a 30.0-point fantasy performance on DraftKings in his last game. Jerome has increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a solid handful of minutes for the Thunder on Tuesday. He is massively underpriced at $3,500 on DraftKings, which results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Hamidou Diallo is another potential value option for the Pistons. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past four games, and his salary has decreased by $1,600 over the past month. Diallo is another player who will need several Pistons teammates to be ruled out of tonight’s contest in order for him to return value. Nonetheless, as long as that indeed happens, then Diallo is a very strong fantasy option.


Small Forward

Stud

Buddy Hield is expensive at $7,000 on FanDuel, but he has the chance to be a huge part of the Kings offense on Tuesday. Not only is Fox still out of the lineup, but Tyrese Haliburton has also been ruled out, and Harrison Barnes is doubtful. That leaves the Kings without three of their most important players. Hield has increased his usage rate to 28.5% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.

Value

Kent Bazemore’s fantasy salary continues to increase, but he’s still too cheap across the industry. Bazemore played 31.6 minutes yesterday vs. the Pelicans, and he is always an appealing option when he’s going to get significant playing time. He has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should be able to put together another strong performance in today’s rematch vs. the Pelicans.

Fast Break

If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, Justin James could be your guy. He’s priced at the absolute minimum and is coming off 19.7 minutes in his last outing. James is projected for a similar workload on today’s slate and boasts one of the strongest points-per-dollar projections in our NBA Models.

The Warriors were able to secure the win yesterday vs. the Pelicans, but New Orleans is favored on Tuesday. That gives the Pelicans the edge in terms of implied team total, which makes them an interesting team to target. Brandon Ingram leads the small forward position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his salary has decreased by $700 over the past month. His $7,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and Ingram has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.00 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pelicans (per the Trends tool).


Power Forward

Stud

The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Milwaukee Bucks. They are implied to score 122.0 points in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview vs. the Nets, which makes Giannis Antetokounmpo an appealing stud target. He stuffed the stat sheet on Sunday vs. the Nets, racking up 49 points, eight rebounds, four assists, one steal, and three blocks. Overall, he has increased his production to 1.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.

Antetokounmpo is priced down a bit on DraftKings as well, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Value

Marvin Bagley III is always going to carry the unfortunate designation of being the player drafted before Luka Doncic and Trae Young, which makes him this generation’s version of Sam Bowie. That said, Bagley has been productive when on the court early in his career. He has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should be asked to play a bunch for the Kings on Tuesday. Bagley finished with 40.25 DraftKings points over 34.1 minutes on Sunday, which makes him an elite target at his current price across the industry.

Fast Break

Kevin Durant is another potential stud target at the power forward position. He went toe-to-toe with Antetokounmpo on Sunday and has scored at least 62.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Durant has averaged a stout 1.68 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and head coach Steve Nash doesn’t seem too concerned about his workload despite his injury history. He’s an even better value than Antetokounmpo on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Jalen McDaniels has had some big games this season when the Hornets have been shorthanded, which makes him extremely appealing at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He is projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Power forward is absolutely loaded on Tuesday, but McDaniels is arguably the best pure value at the position on FanDuel.


Center

Stud

Center is usually loaded with stud options, but that’s not the case on Tuesday. Bam Adebayo is the only player priced above $7,000 on FanDuel. While he’s definitely a viable option at that price tag, I think we can do a bit better.

Instead, let’s focus on Richaun Holmes. He’s another member of the Kings who should see a few additional minutes given their current injury situation, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88 vs. the Thunder, which is one of the top marks at the position.

Value

The Hornets have a pair of value options at center. Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo are both priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and both players should see a solid handful of minutes vs. the Pistons. Zeller has been the more productive player on a per-minute basis, but Biyombo is projected for more minutes. That means Zeller offers a bit more upside, but Biyombo should provide a safer floor.

Fast Break

Steven Adams is currently listed as questionable; if Adams is ruled out, then Willy Hernangomez would be another potential value option. Hernangomez has played at least 25.1 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of those contests.

Brook Lopez stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He earns a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s a strong option vs. the Nets. Lopez is projected for 30.8 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.